Member Info for mathsprof

Article is 3 months old. And its a competitor.

Its going to be all about whether it works, and will then be developoed for market. I suspect there will be room for several new 5 minute tests.

Sorry, I didn't mean to give the impression that I had any belief in a SP of £23. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it was still around £13-14 at the end of 2021.
However I do expect further swings so may claw some of my losses back by buying after the results are out and digested, with a view to selling in the £14-15 range. Of course this may just be the way to incur further losses!

Thanks Grace! And valuefinder, I too am hoping for considerably more than 30p.

My problem with VAL is that over 10 years I have seen big swings in the SP, and have learnt to cash in a proportion when the SP gets rather high.
So I have both banked a small 5 figure profit, then written off around £8k of it, and last year made a further decent profit by selling a proportion of my holding before the present price slide.

So, without further significant news (the £1+ sort), I am looking to cash in a further chunk @30p+ to reduce my holding. I'm not too happy in holding almost 20% of my shares in a single stock.

I believe the stock is undervalued @20p, but 30p ahead of things without a good deal. I am wary of the fact that no-one is interested enough in 401, and 201 could be difficult to sell with the small dataset available. A JV may not necessarily bring in much or any cash.

to all reading the BB here.
My target for 2021 is to regain the £8.50 per share lost last year.
Cruises may restart in a faltering way. I've calculated that I may not get my second jab until September, but the roll out may accelerate.
I don't see any immediate prospect of a SP lift. Indeed it seems much more likely we will see £12 again before £15.
Happy new year to all.

Happy new year to all interested in VAL. This year will mark the 10th anniverary of my involvement with VAL. I was more optimistic in the earlier days, but still feel now the SP is undervalued enough to keep me invested. My immediate target is a mere 30p, then I'll review things.

Happy new year. If we have a better SAR year than last and exceed the 583.1% growth of 2020, we will reach over 16.5p! Any chance of that? I know some of you think so. At present the mcap is just under £80m, and this sort of increase would only bring it up to £0.5b. Happy days ahead!

Potential yes, but not what NCL have done. Looks like they've just taken on new debt.

That's the likelihood here, too.

So what happens to the earlier borrowings?

I fully expect the 4th Q results to bring the SP down with a bump, and especially if the include or are followed up with fresh finance.

Perhaps the relevant thing is that most of the investors are based in the US.

I think the 4th Q interims are due quite soon. This might give us a clue as to the cash needs in the next quarter. Anything slightly discouraging will bring the SP down to more sensible levels. It seems to be a bit ahead of things at present.

I wasn't expecting a morning sell off in the UK. The real reaction will occur when the US starts in earnest. I do believe that although this is overpriced at present it will rise further to an idiotic high today.

Yes, the resistant ones were 1, 5, 8.

Grace - patient 14
Had 6 cycles - ie 126 days. This is almost 1/3 of the post-treatment doubling time, so I don't think its a surprise if his PSA level grew by over 25% during the trial.
The use of the signed-test seems good, but maybe a geometric mean would be better to summarise the PSA doubling time. Or even the median - patient 9 has median times on both counts - 87.4 and 310.5
So we await the next step - who will cough up the money?

CCL is not in control of the timing of the Convertible notes - the holders decide whether they want to convert. There is presumably a quarterly window expiring soon.

When the notes were issued CCL had little alternative to keep afloat. They will pay the price for staring into the abyss in March/April for many a year. Recovery will be slow, and I think shares are pretty much fully valued for now.

sorry - principal amount of notes

carvegyper - thanks for your reply. I now realise they are convertible notes, not convertible stock.

I've looked into it further, and it seems Carnival have no option to repay debt, either in cash or stock, since the 130% trigger ($13) means that holders can ask to be repayed. As you point out CCL have no cash to repay, so they are forced to repay in stock at the going rate of 100 shares per $1000 principal amount of stock. This is fixed by the agreement. It seems though that CCL are only credited with $8.73 because the rest is eaten up in fees. Nasty business!! The current SP has no relevance to the pricing.

The only redeeming factor is that at the end of March, when they also issued new stock, the strike price was $8.00. So actually they are getting a slightly better deal than issuing stock back in early April. But not much.

I think we've forgotten how dire the outlook was at the end of March, since now the outlook and SP has recovered a lot. But anyone who thinks they'll see over £20 in the next year is rather mistaken, in my opinion.

Carvegyber - not technically correct about 200% face value. The convertible stock was sold with the opportunity to convert at the original rate when purchased, a bit like warrants, I assume.
So whatever the current SP, the conversion rate is still $8.7 or whatever. I presume they issued the convertible stock at the time, because the market was in free-fall and turmoil, and stock was unattractive at the time.
The distress rates we are seeing now only reflects the position months ago. It's probably good they now prefer to issue more stock than pay a 5.75% coupon - the stock will have to be issued eventually if the holders want it.

I do agree with you however about the likely doubling of shares in issue by the end of 12 months, so a previous £30/40 SP now is only an eventual £15/20.

I'm with you carvegber.
The increased number of shares plus the fact there is massive debt to service means that the old dividend will never return, and when some dividend returns may only be around 50/60% previous even in 5 years time.
So my target for 2024/2025 would be around £18-£22. This means that I think fair value for now is around £11, assuming most sailing starts in the spring.

never had a problem with ajbell myself.
If you can't sell, I expect its the MMs not ajbell

Clemdoc - thanks for link. Saved me a few pounds today.

Gains and losses only occur at the point of sale. Then its the net gain for the year that may be liable for tax. So some find it worthwhile selling some stock at the end of the tax year to consolidate gains/losses and rebuy in the new year.
However the beauty of an ISA is that there's no tax to pay.