RE: Bullish Candlestick9 Aug 2022 16:23
WHAT RECESSION?
SELL-SIDE AT PEAK BULLISHNESS (1325 GMT) - Tue, 9th Aug 2022 14:50
For the sell-side, there are few signs they see a global recession on the horizon. In fact, an Citi index of global sell-side stock calls is back at peak bullishness levels last seen in 2000 and 2007 - just before investors lost their shirts.
Analysts are most bullish in the United States and increasingly emerging markets, Citi says. They are less bullish in Europe and Japan, but not by much, says a note by Citi Research on Tuesday.
The level of bull, er bullishness, is why it raised a red flag in Citi Research's Bear Market Checklist.
With equity markets off their mid-June lows, the warning signals from Citi's global Bear Market Checklist have eased to six out of a potential 18. But one flag that remains stubbornly red is back to peak bullishness in Citi's index of sell-side analyst stock recommendations of global "buys" versus "sells."
Analysts are never net sellers of their stocks, even in bear markets. To discount this positive bias, Citi calculates a z-score which measures if they are more or less bullish relative to the average over time.
Analysts seem especially keen right now. All regions have returned to 2007 bullishness, but are not yet at 2000 levels. The only time recommendations fell into net sell territory was in Japan in the early 1990s as the bubble burst, Citi says.