Member Info for martinu

I think Italy is our best bet for LPldl at present. But would be nice for Opti to get Cholbiome into NHS/GPs thoughts , though from memory, think SOH has said NHS not easy to break into. But clearly Novartis have got in somehow.

... is well worth a read, while we wait for late Sept update:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dkPxaS5LXaERABkHHkIcIHqHzprr7VTE/view?usp=drivesdk

Any comments welcome. Cheers. MU.

Last year interims were 28th Sept, so expect update around then.

You had to email company by Sunday to get a Zoom link. If anyone joined in would love feedback on any Q&A.

Lion's share of trades seem to be buys, but low volume. Often get a couple of good days after RNS. If buy demand drops off, the MM will soon take it down. IMO we may have to wait for the likes of Croatia to actually produce energy (22-23) before we get a noticeable hike in SP.

Good news on progress on one of the smaller, quicker to production plants. Due to be ready late 2022. Interesting that this one is financed by a loan? Any thoughts on that. IRR 12% this time. Expected annual EBITDA of €850k.

If we get to high 60s, and I hope we do, this will be a tester. That SP has been our sticking point ** and from which we have fallen back. Though looking at chart, it has been a while since we were up there.

** about 5 times between late 2019 and start of this year.

Today's RNS should help.

Lets have a two-sided debate. Not an echo chamber. IMO the forecast revenues for this year are well beyond achievable. Eqtec do need to get more potential projects conpleted. The most likely being the small ones in Italy, Croatia, etc.

The larger ones (in UK) are years from completion, though because of agreements, can produce early revenue.

Whilst NF is the biggest one making progress, it is subject to difficulty of fires in California and increased costs = reduced return on capital.

Looking for some further tangible progress in known projects. And in the promised for current half year would be good.

Good question. Source?

Yes, LPldl pharma is going to be big.

Aandi - in your opinion, what would need to happen on current contracts, ie UK, Ireland, US and Balkans, to get €15m revenue in 2021. Can't help thinking this forecast is overdone.

I think we should focus on the positive of Eqtec and not compare with PHE and the like. After all, with present Eqtec projects, they still have a very long way to go. And delays and increased costs in the biggest ones are likely. In my opinion, the forecast revenues and profitability are well in advance of what is likely. Hopefully Eqtec will surpass the valuation of peers but not by them falling rather than us rising.

Interesting. But nothing given away in terms of partners.

Also think Eqtec are pinning revenue hopes to the end of the period and would guess there would be some (even considerable) slippage. No way we will do that amount of revenue this year. Half of that would be quite a pleasing improvement.

"Those forecasts (the €15m) anticipated a heavily back-loaded year for financial close of key opportunities and deal closure remains the primary focus of the Company."

A very wide ranging update, which was released promptly after it was highlighted by DP. For me it is a mixed bag.

It seemed to allay any fears over North Fork, with Eqtec likely to own a significant % after underwriting funding. And seeming to have taken a more hands on role in management. Lets hope costs don't rise further.

Further prospects in Croatia and Greece,which hopefully, will be quickest to produce.

The UK and Ireland projects look like they could take a few years, so slow progress there. But potentially the biggest gains.

A good outline of where fund raise is to be used. But there is always the possibility of more being needed to progress projects in these years of transition from development to commercialisation.

Main negative was further Covid delays and shortage of materials (cement and steel) and increased cost of these. Plus shortage of engineering components.

Also, I feel it is very unlikely that €15m of revenue will be booked in 2021. Pinning hopes on heavily back-loaded year.

I have been invested for about 9 months. Average is quite good, 0.64p, not including a small profit taking (which could have been judged better). Very moderately sized holding compared to most.

Patience, patience and more patience required. Cheers, me dears, Martin U

A couple of points:

1. One day, hopefully, such articles will reference SweetBiotix.

2. And I agree, Boris will always make the right populist noises, but will he follow up with actions.

Of course, some lazy companies might just take the tax hit and carry on. But lets hope SweetBiotix forces their hands.

Oz - i think your advice is best reserved for the Casino or the Bookies. You might get lucky! But then again...

Also from Van der Lindend tweet today:

"We’re creating Market Development Centres - commercial plants that also demo our patented proven gasification tech. In our next regular trading update, look out for new info about a biomass-to-energy plant with our tech already inside in Croatia w/ our local partner"

Think you might have wrong company there!!

Good to get a prompt response. Not sure it will be a minor delay. And every chance costs will increase going forward. Not least any legal bills.