Member Info for marik

In his tweet Myles states that; the IND Filing... "must contain... any previous experience with the drug in humans (often foreign use)."

This has been crucially missed by many on this BB with quite a lot suggesting the opposite. Another great thread by MM.

GLA

Suggestions are that the number of cases Gauteng (South Africa) arising in the second half of Nov '21 could be interpreted as Omicron gaining dominance over Delta variant. Hospital and deaths will lag behind by a couple of weeks and therefore the next two weeks of monitoring are crucial.

As many of you know I have my eye on £7.50, but £45 would be even better.

"Fair Value = £45.37!"

Very fair.

An epidemiologist and former head of South Africa’s ministerial advisory committee on Covid, said: “We’re going to get more cases quickly, and we’re already seeing early evidence of this.”

A quick look at a story from the FT on Gauteng South Africa; the graphs show that the total number of cases is dramatically more than previous waves and the number of hospitalisations is on par with previous waves. Contrary to previous thoughts that it might be a mild variant, we are getting a better picture as the clues come in.

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net%2Fprod%2F9ec80300-517e-11ec-befa-9fc8c567c343-fullwidth.png?dpr=1&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260

A quick look at a story from the FT on Gauteng Soth Africa; the graph shows that the total number of cases is dramatically more than previous waves and the number of hospitalisations is on par with previous waves. Contrary to previous thoughts that it might be a mild variant, we are getting a better picture as the clues come in.

https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net%2Fprod%2F9ec80300-517e-11ec-befa-9fc8c567c343-fullwidth.png?dpr=1&fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260

A quick note: we've known about the Abingdon manufacturing scale-up for Avacta since 18th of November (see their RNS). What is new and of real interest is the way that Abingdon are scaling up: for Vatic alone they believe that the orders could reach 100 million per annum. Secondly, the orders are expected to complete before the end of the year. A clear strong demand with an increased manufacturing capacity to go with it.

@Owl, this is the whole issue the delay in getting the vaccine in to arms will imply we are a step behind, I'm not liking the idea. SNG001 should have been given EUA a long time ago and instead Gov. were given the story that vaccines would solve the problem especially next generation of vaccines. This variant and now it seems we have nothing in place quick enough to solve the problem so much for the next gen.

"what happens when it mutates again (and again and again)?"

@Traderjoseph, it will significantly mutate again and we will be back at square one - probably in about 6 months there will be a new variant. The alternatives were to have vaccines with multiple S and N targets. But even then there is a possibility that it will to some extent evade the immune system. My thoughts are that it will have to be managed better with therapeutics like SNG001 that has a broad application (and rapid diagnostics). This is looking like a longer term global event and it's something that we haven't managed to fully control after 18 months. SNG001 should have been given EUA last year (IMO) and that would certainly have helped in conjunction with other efforts (vaccines) to attain natural (herd) immunity.

Hospital admissions are doubling every week in Gauteng in South Africa. The doctor may not have had access to follow up data or perhaps had a small subsect of the population that didn't have strong symptoms.

1) https://www.ft.com/content/27def1b9-b9c8-47a5-8e06-72e432e0838f

With the rise of Omicron we are getting mixed messages from various parts of the community. Some politicians and public health experts are pushing for a; do not panic take your booster approach. Top scientists and clinicians heading up the fight against covid are talking of new vaccines and the potential inadequacy of the current vaccines. This can be confusing.

Moderna chief Stephane Bancel predicts that existing vaccines will struggle with Omicron and it could be months before the right variant-specific jab is produced at scale (see excellent article in the FT today). Then there is the obvious issue of distribution, vaccine take-up and finally the time it takes for the immune system to provide sufficient protection post-jab. Although he advocates for waiting for the data, he says that all the scientists that he's spoken to have said "This is not going to be good" [1].

Why then the mixed message? This is based on our understanding that we can provisionally increase antibodies to some extent by taking multiple boosters of current, (potentially mismatched against Omicron), vaccines – this is while we wait for new vaccines to be developed. Hence, we get some defence which can be further strengthened by more boosters and lead to slowing the impact of Omicron. Most likely we will see many Governments around the world pushing for a) an increase in the number of boosters and b) reducing the time between one jab and the next. By the time a new vaccine is developed, it could be months and the current suggestions from Gauteng indicate that there will be a doubling of hospital cases per week.

This is a multipronged approach – an urgency to get boosters administered, return of masks and use of PCR with potential social distancing and washing hands etc. on the horizon if we receive negative feedback. What this means for Synairgen is that there was talk of Covid19 dying out by the time that SNG001 is given EUA. This situation has categorically changed and there is a strong need for SNG001.

Merck's molnupiravir wasn't great to begin with and there was a lot wrong with it, I'm not sure what the outcome will be but either way it bodes well for SNG.

@MilkMONSTA I'm cool, you be cool too. I've understood your point and remain unconvinced because what you are backing it up with is BBI. It comes across like you are deramping, but I'll take your word for it that you mean well.

It's best if you manage your own expectations with R/R. Biotech companies are notoriously difficult to run at the best of times and with the pandemic it can't be easy. What Avacta have achieved is phenomenal. The Omicron variant has at least lit the fire for the Gov. to look at alternative methods (to vaccines) for tackling Covid and more importantly vaccinating some of the World and leaving the rest behind has come back to bite us.

It is now clear that putting Mologic and sister Global Access Diagnostics under Global Access Health and going forward as a social enterprise was a good move by Soros and Gates [1].

1) https://mologic.co.uk/mologic-to-become-a-social-enterprise-after-acquisition-by-social-impact-funders-and-investors/

@hyashi, we've already concluded, BBI can't deliver and some investors want to lay the blame on Avacta, but can't give a reason why. Now moved on to talking about the original post: see my above comment to @ipadtrader regarding new vaccines will have to be produced to target Omicron as the current ones are not effective enough.

Thanks @ipadtrader, appreciate your input. Personally I agree with a few points, but I couldn't agree with a lot of what you are saying as you haven't backed up the statements, as such I remain unconvinced. However, the original post was on Omicron and what direction the Governments are taking and the impact that this will have on Avacta.

From Stephane Bancel's (Moderna) statement the current vaccines will struggle and new ones will be developed to tackle the Omicron variant. In the meantime the demand for other methods of containment (e.g. testing, booster jabs and masks) will be implemented. Will have to wait and see, but I believe this will provide the impetus for the Gov to approve other ways of dealing with what has become a major part of our lives for the foreseeable future.

Of course it is relevant. You are laying the blame on Avacta, but the reality is, that BBI couldn't deliver. If another company can't deliver, why are your blaming Avacta?

So BBI couldn't deliver on CoGs and Avacta are to blame? You say you are not deramping, but for someone being neutral I don't understand your logic. The same can be said about your comments on manufacturing and Abingdon (It sounds like you are talking the company down).

As of 18th of November, Abingdon put COVID-19 Antigen tests into routine manufacture and received significant purchase orders for manufacturing batches and are putting in place the required component stock. That doesn't add up to the comment you made "Avacta are struggling to find manufacturing capacity".

Are you agreeing that BBI couldn't deliver on CoGs? If so then BBI are not relevant.

@MilkMonsta

"BBI, their first partner pulled out almost 12 months after signing up".

Just to clarify do you mean that BBI couldn't deliver in terms of CoGs?

If so, then I don't understand the relevance.