Member Info for marik

Great work today by Avacta and Medusa. Wonderful Christmas present for us all. Money on the way for us, AVA6000 Phase 1 dose escalation, and the gift of life for others.

Merry Xmas.

I've noted that the paper titled:

"In Vitro Characterization and Clinical Evaluation of the Diagnostic Accuracy of a New Antigen Test for SARS-COV-2 Detection"

is now available in a nicer format accepted in J Biol TW. In case anyone missed it:

https://www.iomcworld.org/articles/in-vitro-characterization-and-clinical-evaluation-of-the-diagnostic-accuracy-of-a-new-antigen-test-for-sarscov2-detectio.pdf

I'm sensing a late evening RNS, dare I say it again there is less of a chance this evening then there is tomorrow morning. But I think there could be two cheeky RNS's back-to-back.

At this rate, they will be out of SNG by 1317 days i.e. 22 Nov 2024.
It looks very snail pace for a sale process (8.87% to 7.46% in 249 days), I think they may be de-risking a little before the big news. Some institutional investors do this - not uncommon. You never know.

------------------
15th April 9.87 % down to 8.87% Sold out 150 before SP went to 100 a few days later
28th June 8.87% down to 7.78% Sold out 173 before SP went to 147 a few days later
6th Dec 7.85% up to 8% Bought at 187 before SP went to 210 a few days later
20th Dec 8% down to 7.46% SP currently stable at 207

It's great for Colin, there has been a rise in sp in anticipation of further news to come.

"France cancels order for Merck's COVID-19 antiviral drug" [1]

Why am I not surprised? I had a quick review about 2 weeks ago, it was on thin ice considering three faults:

a. much lower than expected efficacy
b. increased risk during pregnancy
c. intentionally introduced mutations could lead to issues

1. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-cancels-order-mercks-covid-19-antiviral-drug-2021-12-22/

It goes to show the level of support and respect they have for each other.

It's smashed my predictions and is now almost 10m in volume. The last time we had volume like this was in June when the sp was approx 190p. Looking good for the next few weeks.

"The heading of the link provided is very significant :"

Yes it is significant. Implats are quite interesting because they walked away from their option at Waterberg. That option and a number of other acquisitions, implies for me that it's a low offer. I've used a variety of methods including DCF, I'm using est. company timelines for development as per company presentation.

The recent JORC was close to my own estimations, but I'd like to see something more substantial to apply some adjustments. With that said, let's wait for the next 2-3 RNS's and I'll try and set out some further details for people if they are interested.

GLA

My feeling for discount: use a very high value, it helps avoid any over estimations.

"Key point of course is that NAP is in production ..."

I have taken that into account as per my comments in other posts.

My opinion is that £570M was a low offer for NAP and secondly, the value in NKT is a lot higher, which we will find out shortly when they release data for open pit. My estimations are quite frugal £600M and I think there is much more upside at NKT. If this comes into play, then I'd put this >40% higher. But provisionally I will go with my lower estimate.

Interesting read that North American Palladium produced 237,461 oz/year at the Lac des Iles mine in Canada [1]. Implat hoped to make $758M cash offer (i.e. ~£570M). (IMO, a low offer). NAP is both open pit and underground mining, and has circa 70Mt in terms of resources.

Adjusting for production and chronic underestimation by the Russian Cadastre figures, I had a quick calculation of estimated NKT production for both open pit and underground. My frugal estimates are approx. 250,000 oz/year and an estimated cash offer for NKT of ~£600M. It's puts things in perspective this is just NKT, the remaining area would probably be upgraded (40Moz) in the next JORC data results. I'll await the next few JORC's but provisionally this is good news.

1. https://www.nap.com/investors/news/news-details/2019/North-American-Palladium-Reports-1678M-in-Adjusted-EBITDA-for-2018-Announces-Quarterly-Dividend/default.aspx

Some interesting tweets by @TheEthicalTout regarding target prices on a range of scenarios:

https://twitter.com/TheEthicalTout/status/1473600391413735424

"What would be icing on the cake is positive confirmation that AVA6000 initial PK data is indeed showing early signs of patient benefit from treatment ."

That's more than icing, that would be a cherry and another ten cake tiers on top. That's on it's way as well.

We've had the highest volume since the 13th of July! We've hit 5.77M already. Looking exceptionally strong, and it hasn't even been two hours of trading. Another 1.65M and it will have engulfed all volume to 22 June - since then the sp has hit ~195p.

Thanks @troajan, very interesting interview.

"....estimated US$184mln of net operating income for 2022/23"

@ZaphodBeeblebrox

The volume will be interesting to watch over the next few days. We've already done 3.3M in less the 30 minutes of trading and will likely to increase over the next few hours.

The volume will imo increase further as the US wakes up with news of the Biden 500M tests to be supplied and will push the price further up.

The question is that either today or the coming few days will this increasing share price be sufficient to trigger the Bronte and Jupiter to off load. If it does, this could move well above a few resistance points very quickly.

https://www.ft.com/content/306ff143-e05d-4972-81c4-4db52a7fad22

@ZaphodBeeblebrox of course earnings updates are the best. However, there is a lot of news in the pipeline before then and the shorts recently opened will be closing and this will certainly provide a strong squeeze and push the price up further.

@Laticfanatic, that's quite amusing.