Member Info for marik

Absolutely Andybe4. I've said it before the number of patients which this protects against is huge. Look the manufacturing scale-up by Synairgen and it gives you an indication of what they hope to achieve as a minimum. Any buyout would be multiples of the revenue. I would say >£5b especially if more than one party get interested.

"broken record about sub-cohorts "

Is that the reason for the broken record?

@Matml74 I think what NDN is trying to say is that if SNG001 marginally works that there will be too few people to treat? Is that the gist of your thesis NDN?

@travel_light, what's a common way to confirm suitable antibody pairs?

"Not a scooby of an idea", "I have no idea. I don’t claim to know."

@travel_light. Excellent. Glad we cleared that up.

@matml74 SNG001 can help so many people of different age groups. The older subgroup had >1million cases, >225k in hospitalization and 30k ICU admissions with a staggering 124k death cases. The time frame used for the data was December 2019 to 28 December 2020.

Secondly if you remember the phase 2 trial the average age was ~58 years old. What was the result of that? SNG001 was hugely beneficial. I think it's important to note that many people are going to be impacted by covid and inhaled interferon had a dramatically positive impact on older patients (average 58 years old).

Going back to the acquisition comments in a different thread: Synairgen will have a manufacturing and device scale up in place with the aim of producing c. 100,000 treatment courses per month. Which I assume is well underway with the funds they already have, and they have the capacity to go it alone on a 1.2million units per year.

With the above in mind, I believe that there will be a big demand for SNG, for immediate use and for stockpiling. Paired with a Big Pharma and the manufacturing number could be scaled up dramatically.

"I have no idea. I don’t claim to know."

So you have no idea what the normal procedure is?

Although I have a very good understanding of timelines and production of lateral flow antigen tests, I was wondering if anyone here had an idea on how much time Abingdon takes for the antibody selection process?

You are on the money there Matml74. I posted in another thread discussing age and think you've made a very important point.

Remember folks, that Synairgen will have a manufacturing and device scale up in place with the aim of producing c. 100,000 treatment courses per month. I would assume that they this is well underway with the funds they already have, and they have the capacity to go it alone on a 1.2million units per year.

Treatments have been suggested at £1500 to £3000, which would be putting revenue around £3.6Bn

Doesn't take much to figure out that if SNG are acquired, it will be for big money.

GLA

Completely agree @Skippysb, with the US and UK deaths for under 74s hitting under 700,000 I think the importance of stockpiling a broad anti-viral are plain to see.

Interesting that, wonder who it is?

Here are the links below for the ONS [1] and CDC [2]. Both are fairly recent in comparison to other data.

1. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/singleyearofageandaverageageofdeathofpeoplewhosedeathwasduetoorinvolvedcovid19

2. https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Sex-and-Age/9bhg-hcku

I believe RM made comments to the effect of they will go it alone if need be, but will consider offers from companies that are interested in getting the most benefit to the population not just the dollars.

The normal strategy for the likes of AZ and other Big Pharma is to acquire when they see a good return. Phase 3 positive data would certainly mean that Synairgen would be a good ROI. It would inevitably help save lives and alleviate suffering. You are most likely to get multiple players interested in Synairgen. If this goes to a bidding war, this won't be a small ticket item.

"What I find exciting is that pancreatic tumours exhibit one of the highest levels of FAP. We have a FAP activated pro-drug. "

@poised, it's very exciting indeed.

@Skippy and @SanDiego, if we assume an extra 10 years of life, we can look at the ONS statistics and count covid deaths in those below the age of 72 i.e. >70,000 deaths since March 2020. I while back I had a provisional look at the deaths in US (CDC) below the age of 74, I believe the figure is approx. 600,000.

The next variant could escape the immune response even more and may impact even more of the younger population. Key here is that the impact that this has on hospital and health service even if we don't look at deaths - it is a very big strain.

I could be wrong, but there could be some truth in the comments you've made.

GL

@travel_light you didn't respond. I assumed that you would have at least a rough idea how long it takes to put antibodies into a generic LFT hence your comment:

"realistic expectations rather than ramping but maybe too much to ask."

As I said if it takes 3-6 weeks I'm happy and if it takes longer then it takes longer.

It's not what I'm asking. To get a better understanding of what is realistic expectation for antibody replacement, we can always have a look at how a standard process of getting the right antibody into a standard LFT. It will be possible to add caveats later and make some time judgements from that.

From your understanding, (leaving Avacta to one side for a second), what is a typical time frame for getting antibodies ready for LFT design and manufacturing and what does that process involve?

Nicely put @Matml74

"...73 yr olds with red hair and 6 fingers might take to SNG001 better or worse than others. But the real top line stuff will be known."

Interesting point you make Doc. For the initial release of data you are unlikely to get this granularity although they can sometimes stratify for example: by amalgamating at home use and at hospital use as they've done in some studies. However judging by how SNG001 passed the recent phase in the US trial, the phase 1/2 of COPD and Covid in the UK, I have no doubt that the data will be of significance one way or another. Once the top line is announced, the expectation is that they will publish the data where it is peer reviewed and checked, at which point the nuances will be made visible to all those concerned.

However, at approval meetings for EUA they will have this data to hand even if the rest of us don't have it. In any case I don't think this is something to worry about at the moment.