Member Info for MarcelKrell

Some quotes from the presentation about the proceeds in the pocket(?):

"So I think 2 things to say. The good news is we don't have anything maturing until June 2021, so we've got time. But the second, which we -- as Dorothy said and we're very, very much in action on is actually delivering proceeds of in excess of $1 billion."

"As Dorothy said, we've already identified actions within the portfolio where we believe we can deliver in excess of $1 billion proceeds, and these are already identified. We will continue with our hedging program to manage oil price volatility."

"And of course, portfolio management will be a key component of managing liquidity, with options, as I said earlier, already identified to deliver in excess of $1 billion of proceeds."

https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/saudi-arabia-afford-wage-oil-price-war-200314151301575.html

https://time.com/5800452/oil-price-questions-coronavirus/

Target of SA and Russia is shale. I thought shale now has a break even of $50?
Tullow in Ghana only $10, according to the recent presentation ?

This all will take a few months at max I think. Shale is gone by then, and so is Corona, thanks to the measures they now take.

No posts anymore? All eyes on TLW?

So that means, indeed, that TLW will survive. I don't think that they would go for a current low ball sale, since they don't have to. Sufficiently hedged, and they rather go to arbitration in London on the Kenya $2 billion oil bill…

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Tullow-shocks-State-with-Sh204bn-Turkana-/3946234-5486560-117dka6/index.html

They could win that, since Kenya made use of a 'undisclosed' firm to come up with a lower figure, but still a substantial figure, I reckon.

Marcel.

Well... "Kenya hired an undisclosed firm in 2016 for the audit, whose findings are be used to challenge the Tullow bill."

An undisclosed firm… I think it is understandable that Tullow did not agree with the figure that came out of that undisclosed firm…

By the way: Peel Hunt now has a price target of just 20P for Tullow, in november it was still 211P …That does not add up in my book: i.e. emotions.

"Most lenders will be loath to let either Premier’s or Tullow’s wells to run dry. "

https://www.ft.com/content/8cb5e702-62da-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

http://demerarawaves.com/2020/03/05/declared-2020-regional-election-results/

BEYOND 2020
Some refiners prefer to stay flexible by being able to switch their output between low- and high-sulfur fuel oil according to market demand.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-shipping-analysis/how-the-worlds-oil-refiners-plan-to-grapple-with-their-fuel-oil-output-after-2020-idUSKCN1M818C

“Tullow Oil’s discovery is almost more important that Stabroek because it proves there is oil beyond that one block and helps to set up a multi-operator environment in Guyana – this was the bigger news,” he says.

This article is from way before it turned out to be heavy oil at Jethro en Joe. But still...

https://www.offshore-technology.com/features/offshore-guyana-no-longer-frontier-country/

By the way: Venezuela Orinoco belt extra heavy oil contains a whopping 4.5% sulfur, as well as vanadium and nickel)

Regarding the upcoming elections:

"However, it notes, both the main parties support foreign investment and a rise in resource nationalism is unlikely. "

The hedge fund boss has increased his short trade position to 1.37 per cent – or £6.3 million – of the company’s shares

https://www.businesspost.ie/companies/johnson-backer-odey-raises-his-bet-against-tullow-oil-a02ca0ab

Good to know where the price pressure comes from.

I had a link to a article, but I can't get it to show here. Don't know how that works… :(

The article radiated that 'life goes on', the company just continues. I don't think there is real danger that they go 'out of business'. Mostly sentiment. It could be that the share price is being manipulated a bit, to generate some extra profits, for the 'pro's'. All imo of course. Have a good one.

Sorry, wrong link. The right one:

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/our-focus-is-on-FID-by-year-end/2560-5470592-o8vew0z/index.html

New to (this) chat club, invested in TLW for a long time.

https://www.lse.co.uk/activate-account.html?code=417e3da328d3229833381f

I think this is a buying opportunity right now, but... what is the 'bottom' here? Because it looks like there is no bottom left anymore. All 'sentimental views' of course, by me, right now. I think that somewhere in the twenties suddenly big buyers will come in, because it's pretty obvious that 'sentiment' is currently mostly the cause of these share price level.

A pricelevel of in the 50ties (at least) right now is explainable imo.

But indeed, it feels like balls of steel are now needed to push that 'buy' button. But except for Corona I heard nothing new that could "justify" the drop to current values.

So far my maiden post, from the Netherlands.