Member Info for MarcelKrell

https://time.com/5806218/russia-saudi-arabia-oil/

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Inevitable-Outcome-Of-The-Oil-Price-War.html

"But surely, some may say, Saudi stands no chance of going bankrupt? In fact, as highlighted above, Saudi will absolutely go bankrupt if it continues this oil price war."

AdamStallone, I like your post. It's indeed a emotional roller coaster. if it goes back down, it 'SEEMS' fundamentals have changed again. But that, of course, is not the case.

I for sure will not buy into a rally, never. My last buy was at 13, it will sink again over the coming weeks. Investing is, fortunately AND unfortunately, a long term 'hobby'...

Small volume buys… people in 'the know' ? Mmm... unlikely.

Bluemoon: "New CEO, lending facility approved and Uganda deal all news items possible in next 2-4 weeks. We'll be 50p+ if they're positive and then any takeover price gets back to sensible numbers...80-120p. Company is not going to entertain any bid with SP at these low levels."

Imo you mention reason for NO 'emotional' takeover right now, but Corona & SA/Russia still on the playing field... end of April another story imo.

"i wonder if in the same way in which we have seen this panic obliterate share prices will we see a comparable enthusiasm and positive outlook turn around when (not if) we begin to come out the other side of this madness?"

Indeed, but not yet. California lock down just started. So I assume some kind of nice 'headfake'. But good to see that is possible.

If you believe in the strength of this company, you DO NOT want a takeover these days.

And there will be no takeover, management still see plenty of options, of course.

A monthS long tunnel that is... :P

The market is indeed forward looking in regards to the share price rising… but I do think this is a 'headfake' for the time being. I do not think management is going to 'bail out' via a takeover, since they don't have to right now, maybe in a year…

But good to see that share prices CAN still rise… :)

Could be that April is still bad, but after that I would be not surprised that there is a bit light at a month long tunnel...

Investor6:

"I for one do not want a takeover. My average, even with averaging down is £1.
Any takeover, will never be over 300%, never. So 27p won't cut it for me.
Your thoughts??"

That is exactly why there will be no takeover now... if there is a takeover it will be around end of year, because of the different situation the world is in then, and Tullow also. The current TLW shareprice is not a realistic one, when seen in the long term... that is the point.

Marvin: in theory they probably can… but... why should they spend all their 'savings' on this fight? Totally destroy shale forever probably won't work anyway.

And the general public in Russia and the families on 'welfare' in SA wil probably not be happy if both countries would continue this fight for as long as they can…

If it would work, it would have been done earlier probably.

S&P Global this week noted that medium sized American producers Apache, Devon and Murphy Oil already slashed their budgets by a third due to the global market collapse and their high levels of debt. They simply cannot play hardball with their state-owned counterparts of the Middle East.

A Saudi source with knowledge of the situation said that starting a price war was not in the Vienna plan. The source talked about working to pursue a different outcome -- arguing that the Russians came to the meeting determined to end the expansion of US shale producers. A Russian government source said they were willing to compromise, but not go as deep or as long on production cuts as Riyadh wanted.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/13/business/saudi-arabia-oil-markets/index.html

VERY interesting read:

“They can’t keep up this fight for long,” Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, tells Al Jazeera, about the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

He adds: “Why? Because it is killing the economies of both countries.”

Saudi Arabia may need to borrow money to fill the gap between what it spends and the revenue it receives. It needs oil prices of around $82 a barrel to balance its budget.

And Russia, according to the International Monetary Fund, needs oil at $42 a barrel.

https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/countingthecost/2020/03/saudi-arabia-oil-price-war-russia-200315114308947.html

Beevorma, all kinds of figures fly around in articles, but these are definitely very interesting:

“They can’t keep up this fight for long,” Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade, tells Al Jazeera, about the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

He adds: “Why? Because it is killing the economies of both countries.”

Saudi Arabia may need to borrow money to fill the gap between what it spends and the revenue it receives. It needs oil prices of around $82 a barrel to balance its budget.

And Russia, according to the International Monetary Fund, needs oil at $42 a barrel.

Very, very interesting read: https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/countingthecost/2020/03/saudi-arabia-oil-price-war-russia-200315114308947.html

Betrayed, Good post, except for:

Let the Oil price go to $1 so what! only people suffering now are the Yanks and shale, investors have lost everything.

That is not true at all. SA and Russia will suffer, and certainly from a global economic depression.
The SA prince will get himself into serious problems if this continues long.
And Russia... well, the only thing they have to make money is... oil.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-Doubles-Down-On-Production-As-Prices-Crash.html

They will not! And If they will... not for very long. Scaretactics. Pressure from the US will rise.

“That said, the only thing that will likely bring them back to the discussion table is even lower prices,” ING said.

Oil price war will hit coronavirus fight, says energy chief
Russia and Saudi branded ‘irresponsible’ for timing of spat amid global crisis

https://www.ft.com/content/fda131de-62ed-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

They will NOT continue this fight. One week at most before they stop, imo.

Is Gil still alive?

Is he allowed to buy stock these days? :)

The lower oil will go, the shorter it will stay there. In 2014 they also predicted $10,- oil but it did not happen.

The cure for low oil prices = …. indeed!

A nice example of a BS article:

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/Tullow-oil-in-loss-fears-the-worst/2560-5490868-15u7tex/index.html

"Although Tullow has avoided significant battering by the low prices due to its hedging policy, it fears for the worst in the future."

Based on what Tullow said: “If oil prices remain at or below their current levels for an extended period of time, this would adversely impact our future financial results,” said Tullow.

Duh, IF oil prices stay at current levels or below for an EXTENDED period of time... Longer than 18 month! And that ain't going to happen... SA and Russia both would be 'finished' in that scenario...