Member Info for MarcelKrell

"But that won’t be enough. While the focus in Q2-Q3 should be simply to avoid flooding global oil storage, Saudi Arabia and Russia will be looking to draw a long-term commitment from the U.S. following President Trump’s “SOS” for oil cuts."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Solution-To-The-Oil-Price-War.html

" The representatives from the U.S. attempted to assure markets that anti-trust laws would not stand in the way of production agreements."

Shpunken:

"To attempt to balance global oil demand within the next three months is a fool’s errand, and the oil complex must assume that there will continue to be a massive oversupply of oil and oil products. With that in mind, the only focus for oil producers should be limiting supply and avoiding the disastrous scenario of global storage reaching its limit.

Without any oil cut, global storage would be nearing capacity by mid-year, ***which is about 2-3 months away***. ***Demand, meanwhile, is not expected to turn around until July at the earliest.*** "

I think during these months the market will still be volatile. Only question is: will TLW also be volatile, and within what range, since they went from a small 8p to mid twenties?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Is-US-Energy-Dominance-Coming-To-An-End.html

"But the American shale bonanza was built on a decade of debt, aided by near-zero interest rates and a tidal wave of cash (several waves, actually). The drilling boom was already expected to slow dramatically this year, even before the pandemic.

Now, it is definitively over, at least for a while, and with it goes America’s claim to energy dominance. In its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted that the U.S. “will return to being a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020 and remain a net importer in most months through the end of the forecast period,” which runs through 2021."

Oiluser: "US crude oil production as estimated by the Energy Information Administration showed that production for the week ending March 27 was unchanged at 13.0 million bpd."

Trump, succes on friday! :)

"We are awash in product as previously noted and that is going to have an impact on activity. ***Until shale volumes start to fall markedly and estimates of global demand start to increase***, it’s best to wait for rock bottom prices for all of these companies. Anything higher will result in minimizing gains when the real recovery begins."

Lol, what is 'rock bottom' ? But... Corono does still rules.

Shpunken, That is 10% of what is needed, reality-wise speaken?

Shpunken:

"There is so much noise in the market right now, and the (Shale) decline was so modest, that this moment passed largely unnoticed. It will be the end of April before we get another snapshot of activity from the shale patch to confirm that down is now the trend, or what happened in March was a head-fake."

Trump needs to keep shale alive, but also Trump needs to cut along with the other players to get what he wants...

You can't have it both ways. That is why this meeting will not be fruitfull right now on friday, imo.

Indeed Jadam,

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/When-Will-Oil-Bounce-Back.html

"Quite simply there is an ocean full of oil floating in oil tankers just waiting to offload, at ports that are already chock-a-block. This does not bode well for the beleaguered oil market ***that is desperately searching for good news***."

Harry, I think something like that could happen. But then we still have the reality of the current low demand. Oil went up on a message from Trump... so, I'm not seeing this panned out on friday.

I understand what you are saying Shpunken, but my expectation is some 'powerplay' from one of the parties involved, to better positioning themselves for the future. Also it is an open question if all smaller countries will also cut, like the big players want.

So I expect the 'unexpected'. It still is early April. Low demand will stay a major (reality-) factor these days, like the article says.

Hi Shpunken,

" they better announce a cut of more than 15mb"

I don't think that is going to happen, far from. Maybe later, but not this friday, imo.

- Amid the COVID pandemic, API and EIA inventory reports are being criticized for failing to reflect the reality at a time of ***clearly massive oversupply***.

Didn't we all expect April & May still in the sjitter?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Market-Data-Is-About-To-Get-Very-Ugly.html

"Globally, situations are emerging that all investors should be prepared for. We recommend getting out in front of the following pending realities:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Market-Data-Is-About-To-Get-Very-Ugly.html

We'll see.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Supermajor-Slashes-Spending-As-Oil-Prices-Collapse.html

“We haven't seen anything like what we're experiencing today.”

Aha... well, what I saw these days with Tullow...

The World’s Biggest Oil Deal Can’t Save Crude Prices

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Worlds-Biggest-Oil-Deal-Cant-Save-Crude-Prices.html

"“And in any case, a reduction of 6.5 million barrels would do little to help in view of an oversupply of over 20 million barrels per day,” Commerzbank wrote in a report on Monday. "

But we knew that already. Corona rules for the moment.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Superpowers-Clash-Ahead-Of-Most-Important-Oil-Meeting-Ever.html

Meanwhile, both Saudi Arabia and Russia signal that while they are ready to talk potential production cuts, they would consider doing so only if major producers from outside the OPEC+ format, including the United States, join such cuts."

I think this is the crux indeed: "From that bit of the article it looks like the US will not be making any cuts and that is a requirement of Putin so a deal is gonna face difficulties."

But for TLW long term it does not matter. But I think a failed oil meeting will also have a negative effect on TLW, (very) short term. Only question is: how much will it pull back? We'll see.

Even Warren Buffett did not have the gift of predicting the share price fluctuations. Ehehe.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-OPEC-Meeting-Could-Send-Oil-Prices-Crashing-Below-10.html

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEA-OPEC-Cant-Save-The-Oil-Market.html

"As a result of restricted commuter travel, grounded flights, and economic slowdown, demand for oil in April is expected to drop by 20 million bpd year on year, and probably more."

"Trump’s tweets and general approach to this matter suggests he and his administration are out of touch with reality. Even if a Saudi-Russian combination would cut 10 million bpd, the oil price reaction would be minimal and very short-lived. At present, leading oil market experts such as Vitol, Trafigura and Goldman Sachs are warning of a total demand destruction of 20 million bpd or more. When looking at the cuts in global refinery runs, we have already hit levels of -17 million bpd or more. "

April, May, will be in the sjitter imo. But we'll see.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-OPEC-Meeting-Could-Send-Oil-Prices-Crashing-Below-10.html