Member Info for MarcelKrell

I think this guy is overreacting, but I also do think this will be the perception over the coming quarter:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/EX-BP-CEO-Low-Oil-Prices-Are-Here-To-Stay.html

“This is very reminiscent of a time in the mid-1980s when exactly the same situation happened - too much supply, too little demand and prices of oil stayed low for 17 years.”"

Exactly the same? Say what? But we will hear more stories like this, over the coming quarter, and it could result in also TLW going south again...

I think, in regards to the Tullow share price, there is one big 'danger' of the perception on the stock turning 'bad' again: and that is the 'fact' (?) that the general expectation nowadays is (or will become) that the Corona-impact on the World economy will linger INTO 2021... so that it all will take longer to recover than we thought, let's say two months ago...

I'm long on TLW for years. But short term there could be another TLW drop imo, I even 'wonder' that TLW is holding up so well, these days. But during this second quarter there could be a single digit TLW price, 'could' that is.

It all depends on Corona news, and I don't see that coming right away... lol?

No, I don't short. Only big boys short in a way that we can see the effect. :)

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Worst-Is-Yet-To-Come-For-Oil-Prices.html

"In fact, there could be a rerun of negative prices in a month’s time, according to several analysts. “We believe prices are likely to remain at basement levels in the short-term with further shut-ins forthcoming - expect late-May to bring similar price movements as the June contract rolls over,” Raymond James wrote in a note on Tuesday."

Just announced: Another month of 'smart' Lockdown in the Netherlands announced.

And 3 month of big public events cancelled. Corona fear will be among us for the coming quarter.

BAM:

Nice 'cleanup':

"The oil rig count dropped by another 66 last week, another steep reduction. The Permian basin lost 33 rigs. Production declines have already started, but more shut ins are necessary in the short run as spot prices come under tremendous pressure."

"***Ultimately, the market continues to be at the mercy of the pandemic***. Several billion people are living under some version of a lockdown. The hits keep on coming. Demand for road fuels in India has plunged ***by 50 percent***, for instance. Analysts have repeatedly revised oil forecasts, with an increasing recognition that the shock to demand will be lengthier than previously expected. In April, at least, demand will be down by 29 million barrels per day (mb/d)."

Oops 2:

***"The second quarter is “likely to be the most uncertain and disruptive quarter that the industry has ever seen,” Schlumberger CEO Olivier Le Peuch, said on the company's earnings call last week."***

"On Monday, Halliburton also offered a grim outlook for the oil market. “We expect activity in North America land to sharply decline during the second quarter and remain depressed through year-end, impacting all basins,” Halliburton’s Chief Executive Officer Jeff Miller said in a statement. The oilfield services giant reported a net loss of $1 billion in the first quarter."

Oops...

"On the one hand, the negative pricing will be chalked up to a weird one-off glitch, a confluence of historic firsts due to a price war, pandemic and downward economic spiral. The bizarre development may quickly be forgotten as traders move on to the June WTI contract, which is trading at $20 per barrel. But while June doesn’t appear quite as catastrophic, oil at $20 is not a price at which most oil companies can survive for any lengthy period of time. Moreover, there is no reason to think that $20 is the floor."

"The energy industry is not expected to recover quickly, as demand levels will be dampened for an extended period."

"All of my comments above are predicated on a relatively dour outlook for oil prices that does not include a V-shaped recovery," Glickman says.

“Over the medium term, I see oil price gains capped, as accumulated storage must be unwound, spare capacity must come back online, and the oil-intensity of the economy probably settles below pre-crisis levels.”

That sums it up imo for the medium term, imo. For next year TLW will be ok of course.

"The International Energy Agency (IEA) said last week demand in April is estimated to be 29mln barrels per day lower than a year ago, a level last seen in 1995."

Nobody wants the oil now... :)

“Speculators having bought the June contract now risk that it could get pulled lower over the coming weeks towards where the May contract is currently trading,” Hansen added.

“Only a major change in the fundamental outlook through lower production, due to producers being forced out of business, leaving wells idle or improved demand for fuel can prevent this.”

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/917635/mind-the-gap-why-the-spread-between-wti-and-brent-prices-is-so-high-917635.html

Well, SHPunken and me, predicted it well. Lol.

Tullow holding up incredible. (I Missed a lot of posts here)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/naeemaslam/2020/04/20/crude-oil-down-over-18-can-it-drop-to-10/#44e3c31119ff

"A demand collapse such as we are witnessing at present has never been seen before. Demand destruction to the tune of 20-25 million bpd is a giant shock to the total energy system. Market watchers, however, are focusing too much on E&Ps. The current financial situation of most NOCs, IOCs and large independent producers is not yet dire, while smaller drillers are already on life-support. The industry will, in the end, find the right balance again as much production from smaller producers will be shut in or disappear for good."

I even read about up to 30 mb/d demand destruction.

The Oil Industry’s Recovery Lacks One Important Ingredient

Oil price alone isn't the whole story to this article:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Oil-Industrys-Recovery-Lacks-One-Important-Ingredient.html

"Some analysts are even expecting growth before the end of 2020, based on misconceptions that oil prices could be even hovering around $40 per barrel at that time. Optimism based on simple Excel equations or mathematics are most probably going to be proven wrong."

https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Oil-Crisis-Challenges-Putins-Power.html

"Where oil prices will settle in the next few months is far from certain. Daniel Yergin, a leading expert on the global energy sector, has noted in Foreign Affairs that ***prices will likely plummet in late April and May*** as demand plunges and storage capacity is depleted. "

Lol, from yesterday:

https://www.ig.com/en/news-and-trade-ideas/is-now-the-time-to-short-tullow-oil--200416

"However, with oil prices continue to fall as demand for the commodity hit a 25-year low on Wednesday, pressure is mounting on the stock and short interest could continue to build."

Is this article a bit late to the party, or are they expecting a new round of shorting?

"The International Energy Agency warned the oil market on Wednesday to brace itself for the lowest level of demand the sector has seen in 25 years as a result of the global coronavirus lockdown."

Drake, Well, then monday is the litmus test. :)

I'm not sure if it goes that easy with shut-ins, since that is what you are saying.

And, Drake, what will happen just before and just after oil storage is full? And would the Tullow sp react to this?