Member Info for MarcelKrell

Berni, good post:

"Now it's true that this should not have much effect on TLW SP, as a) it is a short term thing, and b) they are quite well hedged for 2020.
But as we all know, markets are all about sentiment and emotions and that will potentially weigh on the SP.
Perhaps other factors, asset sales etc, will help support and raise the SP. It'll be a tug of war."

***Goldman Sachs Expects Another Oil Price Crash***

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Goldman-Sachs-Expects-Another-Oil-Price-Crash.html

(One would suspect Goldman to profit from such a crash,lol)

"And since oil supply remains vastly greater than demand, we are merely in the eye of the hurricane at least until the June WTI maturity in one month, with Goldman expecting the market to **test global storage capacity in the next 3-4 weeks **- *unlike WTI which was merely a Cushing event *- which will likely create substantial volatility with more spikes to the downside *until supply finally equals demand*, as with nowhere to store the oil, supply has no other option but to be shut-in down in-line with the expected demand losses. Alternatively, we could see another "Monday massacre" with producers of oil willing to pay buyers to take physical possession right around the time all global capacity is full, unless of course US shale producers drastically cut output in the coming days, not weeks."

Sorry, wrong board. :)

This is the Crux imo, question is: will it have an affect on the current Tullow share price over the coming months?

"A few weeks before the summer driving season begins, U.S. gasoline consumption has plummeted to levels last seen in the ***late 1960s*** (wow), due to the lockdowns to contain the spreading of the coronavirus."

"Even if lockdowns across the U.S. were to be lifted tomorrow, gasoline demand is not expected to stage a V-shaped recovery. Instead, it would likely stay around the current levels for weeks and probably months, pushing both gasoline and crude oil inventories higher."

“As negative gasoline demand is still expected to plague the US throughout May, and a very weak driving season is expected during the summer, it is unlikely that demand for crude will return in the first half of the year,” Rystad Energy said this week.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Shale-Suffering-Has-Only-Just-Begun.html

This is the Crux imo, question is: will it affect the current Tullow share price over the coming months?

"A few weeks before the summer driving season begins, U.S. gasoline consumption has plummeted to levels last seen in the ***late 1960s*** (wow), due to the lockdowns to contain the spreading of the coronavirus."

"Even if lockdowns across the U.S. were to be lifted tomorrow, gasoline demand is not expected to stage a V-shaped recovery. Instead, it would likely stay around the current levels for weeks and probably months, pushing both gasoline and crude oil inventories higher."

“As negative gasoline demand is still expected to plague the US throughout May, and a very weak driving season is expected during the summer, it is unlikely that demand for crude will return in the first half of the year,” Rystad Energy said this week.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Shale-Suffering-Has-Only-Just-Begun.html

Hi HeresHopin,

That conclusion is not entirely correct (and you should and could have known that of course): the very point is (like SHPunken and I concluded earlier); i'm *not * 'over-emphasizing' the downside.

You are touching the very crux of the situation, unfortunately this 'possible downside' is something that we could encounter during this second quarter.

Your remark: "constant negativity in the meantime is annoying" is what they call 'emotion'.
Problem is: we could be confronted with such a scenario, as reflected in a whole bunch of articles!

Maybe you don't like that or don't want to see it... but that's another thing of course. Either way: you will be confronted with reality, like we have been several times the last 5 months.

Investing is not about 'dreaming' and 'fantasizing', although I know where you are coming from.

But the numerous articles are here, and they are in the majority. You better deal with it. :) I'm not making this stuff up.

I can assure you one thing: Tullow will not sail away in a straigth line to 200P...

Good Morning Tradeemup. To elaborate, this is what I meant:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IB02uSCfk_I

Most estimates are a demand destruction of 25 to 35 million barrels a day. This Global head of Energy from KPMG thinks that it will be a "tough tough tough road" for the industry well into 2021 (12-18 months) and that... "those who have strong balance sheets and access to liquidity will be able to survive... but it's going to be a really rought 12-18 months"

I think she will be not far off, although I don't see 18 months, more like 12. And 12 months is a long time, in which I see the Tullow share price at some point fall again. Because of the 'general effect' this situation has on all oil companies, including a super strong Shell RDS, but also because Tullow had/has to work on a strong balance sheet (as we speak) and has access to liqiduity, but is far from a Shell RDS.

So I think that is why Tullow will be/stay susceptible to ' investor emotions' over especially the coming 3 months (imo). And I don't mind that (understatement) since I bought €10K at 13P, but at under 8P, I had my hand on the trigger, expecting it to go to 5P'ish.

I'm not sure at all (of course) what the next bottom is or will be, when we make a dive again (if at all) over the coming 3 months... but I will be a buyer again at or under 13P. But not now... because of the above. Oil is not out of the woods yet, Tullow included of course.

I can only **hope** for another visit to the single digit prices. But I won't hold my breath, but who knows what happens after half May, when storage is full? A new round of 'emotion' mixed with some heavy big TLW shorters... could bring us in that direction again... certainly with no substantial news for months?

We'll see what unfolds. But I have cash allocated for Tullow, but not here, at this point, right now.

I am a very long term share holder, unfortunately. I was talking about these weeks, of course.

Your positive reason are known, but can be overruled by the general market. That is the point.

Any reason why Shell is down? Google an article about that.

That the Tullow share price *could* be affected, short term, despite holding ground for the moment.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/This-Oil-Rally-Wont-Last.html

"Traders are saying the late week rally is being fueled by ***short-covering*** rather than speculative buying. Nothing has changed in the fundamentals to turn the energy complex bullish the last three days. Once the coronavirus is under control, output should rebound as well as prices, but don’t expect output or prices to return to pre-virus levels for years."

This Oil Price Rebound Is Only Temporary

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/This-Oil-Price-Rebound-Is-Only-Temporary.html

"The worst week in oil market history is finally coming to an end, but some analysts are suggesting there may be more pain in store as crude storage cross the globe reaches capacity. "

https://abcnews.go.com/US/disagree-medical-professionals-counter-coronavirus-lockdown-protesters/story?id=70293830

"My wife and I got accused probably a dozen times of not really being medical professionals," he said."

ONLY in the USA... lol

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/What-Happens-If-Oil-Storage-Runs-Out-In-The-Permian.html

The oil will hit the fan? :)

The main problem here will be that the economy will (at a certain point in the future) start up very slowly again due to all the Corona-measures that will be in place then. I don't think we will be flying (with an airplane) any time soon, since 'social distancing' is a bit hard in an airplane... :)

And in the mean time, oil will start to overflow everywhere. And then the oil will hit 'the fan' again...

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Oil-Market-Crash-Is-Far-From-Over.html

"The shut ins are mounting much faster than predicted just a week or two ago. But with the pandemic not expected to go away anytime soon, demand destruction could persist longer than just a few months."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Gasoline-Consumption-Hasnt-Been-This-Low-Since-Vietnam-War.html

“We are seeing ****fast and furious gasoline demand destruction****. The latest data reveals demand levels ****not seen since spring of 1968*****,” AAA spokesperson Jeanette Casselano said at the beginning of last week."

Could Berkshire Hathaway join the bargain hunt? It's possible.

But as notorious as Buffett is for actually thinking before buying, ***he may wait a little***. The reason: this crisis is like no crisis before it. This adage has already grown old in just a couple of weeks, but this doesn't make it any less true.

Our friend is a bit late?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Warren-Buffett-Is-On-The-Lookout-For-Oil-Industry-Bargains.html

Or isn't he?

Lake Albert background"Once up and running it is envisaged that Lake Albert could produce some 230,000 barrels of oil per day as rates plateau.Development of an initial 1.2bn barrel project was greenlighted by the Ugandan authorities in 2016 and the project partners are on the cusp of taking the FID.Tullow farmed down its original 100% stake in Lake Albert to Total and CNOOC via a 2011 deal worth US$2.9bn including partner spending commitments.Additionally, back in 2017, Total sold a ***21.57% stake*** in the project to Total in a ***US$900mln*** deal before CNOOC took up its pre-emption rights over 50% of that transaction.It left Tullow with ***33%*** of the project, which it was actively marketing."Could have been better in another era?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/tanks-full-why-oil-at-negative-100-isn-t-a-crazy-bet-anymore?srnd=premium-europe

Lol.

Just 'imagine' for a second that the success to halt Corona world wide goes into acceleration, and that the skies clear faster than expected... everybody will be inclined to jumpstart their economy sooner and faster...

A scenario that could become reality, after the second quarter... COULD that is...

But I don't think that will be the mindset during this quarter... that is the way it works of course.