Member Info for MarcelKrell

"Morgan Stanley Says The Worst Is Over For Oil"

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Morgan-Stanley-Says-The-Worst-Is-Over-For-Oil.html

Then we all know what time it is.... lol. Armageddon is coming.

Supply Destruction Could Send Oil To $70

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Supply-Destruction-Could-Send-Oil-To-70.html

Oilprice.com suddenly turns bullish with it's articles.

Is this a sign that a downlurn is coming again? Lol, but in most cases the market does what people don't expect.

Oil Prices Rally Despite Another Inventory Build

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Rally-Despite-Another-Inventory-Build.html

"The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated on Tuesday another large crude oil inventory build, of 8.440 million barrels for the week ending May 1 as the demand destruction continues and storage space nears its upper limits."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/This-Could-Be-The-Beginning-Of-A-Tremendous-Oil-Rally.html

"This Could Be The Beginning Of A Tremendous Oil Rally"

It looks like SHPunken and me were wrong with the expectation that may would be another way down for oil...

The market never reacts as one expects, I would say.

Only thing is: it's still may, everybody is expecting rallies now... so it could be that we will be right when we do not expect it anymore: end may, or june.

Since fundamentally nothing has really changed substantially.

Will be interesting to see what will happen over the next 2 months.

Now this is a sheer BS prediction imo:

"But the global crisis following the pandemic, the crisis in the aviation industry, and expectations that people and companies could permanently change their behavior in a post-virus world are throwing all previous assumptions away. A complete overhaul of the aviation industry and a ***lasting change in air travel habits and patterns*** could indeed accelerate the arrival of peak oil demand."

That makes me chuckle.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/COVID-19-Could-Accelerate-The-Arrival-Of-Peak-Oil-Demand.html

Slift, If you think I read all posts here... you better think again. I work for a living, you know! So take it easy with the language....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=AkzwOX4bnYk&feature=emb_logo

Cruiseships, yachts.

https://twitter.com/subnut/status/1255081820938539008/photo/1

wow:

https://twitter.com/subnut/status/1255081820938539008

I agree, Shpunken: "Pain short term, huge gains long term."

If I may add:

"In the short run, the oil industry has to navigate the next few weeks, which is widely expected to result in extreme supply shut ins. With oil demand down roughly 30 percent in April, and perhaps by slightly less in May, storage is set to be overwhelmed. Supply needs to align with demand, and the process will be chaotic. Goldman Sachs said that by mid-May, storage could be mostly tapped out, which could require 18 million barrels per day (mb/d) – 20 percent of global supply – to be shut in."

And yet the market in general seems to react eagerly to any bit of positive news, while the above still is hanging over our heads, short/mid term.

Markets never react the way you think they do... lol. At least for the moment, lol 2.

In the end, short term, it all boils down to this quote:

"Analysts, however, think that the nearly 10 million bpd OPEC+ cuts in May and June will be too little too late to support the market, considering that the current demand loss stands at ***around 30 million bpd***—three times the cuts promised by OPEC and its allies. "

Volatilty as a result imo.

Nobody seems to know....?

Party Poopers: "Morgan Stanley: Oil Demand Won’t Return To ‘Normal’ Until End-2021"

Is this a 'worst case scenario' ? TLW is hedged next year, so that is good.

"Oil demand around the world will not return to the pre-virus levels of 2019 until the fourth quarter of 2021, as countries will be slowly emerging from the lockdowns and the economic recession, according to Morgan Stanley."

"In addition, the post-coronavirus world could see some lasting structural changes in consumer behavior, Martijn Rats, head of oil research at Morgan Stanley, told Reuters. "

Short term I still expect to witness a setback pre-summer, despite the fact that it looks like everyting (all bad news) has been priced in right now, for TLW and the oil stocks in general.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Morgan-Stanley-Oil-Demand-Wont-Return-To-Normal-Until-End-2021.html

Will be interesting, volatile, weeks/months imo.

Party Poopers: "Morgan Stanley: Oil Demand Won’t Return To ‘Normal’ Until End-2021"

Is this a 'worst case scenario' ? TLW is hedged next year, so that is good.

"Oil demand around the world will not return to the pre-virus levels of 2019 until the fourth quarter of 2021, as countries will be slowly emerging from the lockdowns and the economic recession, according to Morgan Stanley."

"In addition, the post-coronavirus world could see some lasting structural changes in consumer behavior, Martijn Rats, head of oil research at Morgan Stanley, told Reuters. "

Short term I still expect to witness a setback pre-summer, despite the fact that it looks like everyting (all bad news) has been priced in right now, for TLW and the oil stocks in general.

Will be interesting, volatile, weeks/months imo.

Tradeemup: Although we agree mostly, there is one nuance to be made:

You said correctly: "I pay them no mind because the OP ***must correct near term or everyone will be out of business***."

BUT: this implies the suggestion that agreed upon higher oil prices are the solution.

And there comes the ***real problem*** looking around the corner: not the (low) price of oil is the problem... the ****Oil Demand Destruction**** is the REAL problem. Demand destruction is somewhere between 25 and 35 million barrels per day. Oil cuts are up to 15 million barrels per day, max!

There lies your problem for the coming months, I would say almost regardsless of the oil price.

And... some oil producers will try to cheat with the amounts of oil they are going to sell, and will perhabs cut less than they promised.

In the end the 'Demand side' needs to be up to 100% again. Corona rules... still.

Tradeemup, looks like you are a trader.

Problem is that I can't find positive oil related articles on the internet. Like SHPunken and I said some time ago, these months... are for the birds. Wake up, bro:

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

Read your forecast 'highlights'... you dig?

And stop reading every single post here. I expect no specific TLW news in the short term...

What do I expect, that all oil stocks will go down another round, short term, due to the continued oil fight and storage nearing 100%

I think TLW will go down along with that news again. But I won't sell my block purchased at 13. Don't have the balls.

Will I get upset if TLW goes south again, short term over the coming weeks/months: nope. I don't care. You shouldn't either.

Every s-i-n-g-l-e article on the internet predicts oil in the doghouse... why? C-O-R-O-N-A.

Maybe Tullow holds in this range, maybe it doesn't. Either way it does not matter much since it is short term.

I, unfortunately, think TLW will not see the single digit prices anymore, since it went so low due to specific TLW news, intensified by big shorters.

But objectively seen: if oil stocks get hit again due to the storage being full, TLW must follow the group imo. And is there a change that storage will reach 100%....? Well, duh.

So, I expect (imo that is) TLW to not hold the 20ties over the coming weeks/months. Due to the reality behind all those 'negative' articles in the news...

But I will not sell any shares that I have, even those at 150P plus... just add when there is a good moment.

***But I can tell you this: IMO (!!!) NOW is not the moment to add TLW, due to the above (those 'pesky' negative articles)***

Fair story?

Trade, get a grip on your emotions. We have no influence here on the sp if you think that's the case.

Deal with it.

Wow, I forgot that. Man, do you read every s-i-n-g-l-e post? Unduable.

Well, they are still going at it, they both smell 'blood' it seems.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-And-Russia-Fight-Bitter-Market-Share-Battle-In-Collapsing-Oil-Marke.html

Lol

"The Saudis are making good on a promise they made: flood the market with oil. It is a risky strategy in a world where storage capacity around the world could be full in a couple of weeks. While the energy industry seems to be heading full speed towards a cliff, exporters in Russia and Saudi Arabia prefer to maintain their market share instead of saving the industry. Only time will tell where this strategy will lead to."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Arabia-And-Russia-Fight-Bitter-Market-Share-Battle-In-Collapsing-Oil-Marke.html