Member Info for MarcelKrell

"The National Assembly's Liaison Committee in its report on the 225-26 Budget Policy Statement directed the Energy and Petroleum Ministry and Epra to fast-track the review of the FDP and forward it to parliament by June 30 this year. It also wants Tullow to onboard ***the strategic investor and get the project moving***.

I don't think that the Committee or de Ministry of Energy and Petroleum has a 'problem' with GULF Energy Ltd from Kenya, right? lol.

When Richard Miller claims/tells us that Gulf Energy Ltd has the requisite financing to complete the transaction and is a strong and credible counterparty to unlock material value for the people of Kenya... then I assume that the Committee and the Ministry agree on that, right? ;)

How many barrels per year for Tullow are talking about in x years...?

What I would like to know is *how much pence* can/will be added to the Tullow share price in x years when the 30% becomes reality?

Must be a lot...

To be clear: $35 billion in SALES (at $60,- a barrel)...

30% of that still must be an incredible amount of money for Tullow (in x years, but guaranteed)

Yes, I think Gulf has the means and the know-how (hired or whatever) to make this happen (otherwise Kenya will look at a pie in the Sky forever, and I showed the article where it said that Kenya wanted Tullow to make this HAPPEN, meaning that GULF for sure can).

Yes, I am sure Kenya wants to go full ahead (Kenya told us that in the very same article)

So, despite the time factor I can only conclude Tullow is 'golden'.... in x years.

Such a deal would be meaningless if Tullow was of the opinion that they won't survive during these coming years.

I think the timefactor is keeping the shareprice from reacting. After refinancing is secured, we will see a first 'reaction' of the shareprice imo, would be logical at least. bwtfdik, lol.

I went through some earlier posts:

"I think it's pretty clear from the definition of a back in right. Gulf will bring this to first oil and then at the point they have recovered their initial costs from the oil they produce, Tullow will then have the option to take their 30% stake with no cost. Tullow will obviously then from that point going forward also be responsible for their share of the production costs, etc."

"Overall, a back-in right is a way for the assignor to retain some ownership and control over the oil-and-gas lease, even after assigning it to someone else."

TMan75's response: (and I agree).

"And Lets agree that is a Great achievement for tullow. What was the plan for the last five years and with 30 % realy well done. No reimbursement of 1.1 bln spent but no costs from now onwards too. Great.

So, in conclusion: the only real bummer here is the timefactor (even JMAX agrees on the rest).

Now what I would like to know: fast forward x years, and the 30% really kicks in for Tullow: ***What is that 30% of 35 BILLION dollars worth in terms of shareprice appriciation alone?****

(Supercooper was bs'ing when claiming it (the Kenya deal) only brings Tullow $100 million... )

Can anyone tell me what the "no cost" means:

"I think it's pretty clear from the definition of a back in right. Gulf will bring this to first oil and then at the point they have recovered their initial costs from the oil they produce, Tullow will then have the option to take their 30% stake with no cost. Tullow will obviously then from that point going forward also be responsible for their share of the production costs, etc."

Yes, at some point this deal will be shown in the shareprice I'm sure. 30% is a lot.

Sc,

"Tlw will receive less than $100mln for 585 mln barrels. Is that realistic enough?"

No, I don't think that is a realistic summary by any means...

Anton, sc,

These quotes come from:

https://energynews.pro/en/tullow-oil-sells-kenyan-assets-to-gulf-energy-for-120-mn-and-remains-on-standby/

Jmax: "There is something fishy about you."

If you are not a Tullow shorter, you get everything I own... lol

JMAX: before you reply again to anyone's post:

Rule of thumb: the more one posts... the higher the financial interest..

And you are definitively not buying Tullow shares these days, so... go and shoot some fish in a barrel... hahaha.

Supercooper:

"I think the Kenya outcome cannot be dressed up as anything other than disappointing after 13 years struggling to get any momentum and the cost of drilling."

You need to be a bit more realistic:

According to Tullow Oil’s estimates, the field could hold up to 585 mn barrels of crude.

The entry of Gulf Energy, a company based in the United Arab Emirates, into the project could expedite its development.

The free participation clause keeps Tullow Oil in a strategic observer position.

IMO it's clear now that Kenya wants to produce that oil, when we look at the latest communciations, right?

Like Anton said: I think (and I myself am sure) that Kenya now get's what it wants out of this development...

Why wouldn't this be a fantastic deal for Tullow, if this finally starts to become a reality?

I don't think that Kenya wants to leave that oil in the ground... and go Solar... lol.

JMAX: "Why would I need your advice - look at your posting history."

Actually, it wasn't advice. It was a sheer observation that you frantically post here for a reason:

"13.4p expect a pullback from here."

You mean: I HOPE to see a pullback from here.

Indeed: look at your posting history.

It's easier to recognize a Shorter than it is to shoot fish in a barrel.

A little reminder: you said the devil is in the details... I think you are FOS again today.

There are some big players in Tullow Oil with substantial amounts of shares. They will of course 'supervise' what happens... (that's wy Rahul got booted I'm sure).

585 million barrels at $60,- is 35 BILLION $ in sales.

Kenya will never ever leave substiantial profits from this figure in the ground.

And Tullow has 30% (timescale is evidently of less importance, otherwise this deal would not have been made, if Tullow could not refinance).

JMAX:

"13.4p expect a pullback from here."

You expect a pullback from here, ok.

Then my advice is: short (some more). It's that simple, right?

JMAX

"The 'experts' got their Kenya deal and here they are at 13p - so much for 'shorters burning'."

I do see you post a lot, for a reason for sure.

I think I substantiated that the Kenya deal is good (understatement) for Tullow, a bird in the hand...

The share price will catch up to reflect this deal, sooner or later.

I don't think we are looking at a realistic share price right now... understatement.

Anton: "for me his recent purchases are a definite sign that Tullow isn't going bust anytime soon and they will get the refinancing done."

Not the only 'sign' I might add... right?

I wonder how strong the share price will react when the refinancing is a moot point... I personally think pretty hefty.

Anton... 20's , 30's, doesn't matter. Would you sell in those ranges if you know Kenya FDP is a go?

I mean we were in the 60's... the current Kenya deal isn't that bad imo, understatement...

Hmm, I don't think so. They've got that "winning lotery ticket"... when they exactly cash in... is of less importance I would reckon.

But we'll see... but I do think this is mega for Tullow.

"Inconveniently for some arguments on here Kenya is already a world leader with (90%) of electricity generated from renewables."

Like I said: Tullow oil and Africa as a whole can be 'thankful' to Donald 'drill baby, drill' Trump...

And indeed also: we still need oil for substantial amount of time, that one thing that is clear.

So I truly think this is mega for Tullow, 30% of a HUGE amount of profits... instead of just pie in the sky / two birds in the bush...

Jmax: "If it's an excellent deal for TLW, why is the SP at 13p?"

Very good question, since the market is 'always right' , right?

My guess is, if that FDP is accepted (and of course it will be, as I substantiated imo), the shareprice will 'react' ...

So,

What will happen with the shareprice after an approved FDP? (and maybe add a new qualified CEO, and some better Ghana figures?)

A nice reminder regarding the succeeding of the FDP this time (from Anton, good point):

Why new license rounds, if Kenya goes 'Solar'... ?

"One thing to bear in mind as well is that the latest deadline for EPRA to approve it is the 30th of June and the deadline for bids for new licences on the new blocks is the 30th September. It's hardly going to encourage any bids if the government take resources back and don't issue production licences or continually drag their feet of approving FDP's. I think it is far more likely that a production licence would be issued and that would have a timescale built into it. Failure to meet that would result in forfeiture. That makes much more sense to me, as it would be easier to find a new participant to take it over if the FDP had been approved rather than rejected."

I also think it is an indirect 'blessing' for Tullow oil and Africa as a whole that Trump... wants to pump (oil), right?