Member Info for MarcelKrell

I don't bang about 30%... Tullow does.

Jmax, you are evidently beating around the bush... the data is available. Even has been posted here...

You couldn't either, go back and see for yourself.

What is your point, jmax?

We know you short Tullow. It's your own choice.

A way higher OIL PRICE I mean, of course.

That is what I asked some time ago... remember?

But it does not matter, they get 30%

No matter what calculation: it is a huge number.

They had 100%, but of course could never ever hold on to 100%, now they have 30%

So the net profit is at least $15 a barrel, but could of course be way higher in due time, since oil prices go down... and up again.

So it also could be $30.- net profit at some point, due to lower production costs that we think/assume now, and or a (way) higher share price...

I would say: be glad. (Unless you think you needs to short Tullow...)

Either way you spin it: they have 30%

Extreem low ball figure is a net Profit of €15,- a barrel for Kenya

Jmax, 'the market' is nothing more than a bunch of buyers and sellers.

That the 'market' does not react now, has been discussed here. I hope you remember...?

I noticed something, when Kenya is mentioned: you can pick the Tullow Shorters right out of the crowd... :p

jmax, if I promise you $1 million gift, to be received in (random number) 2030... would you be a happy camper? That is what I mean...

And that this 30% is AT LEAST 8 years away is also not correct. The moment the wheels are in motion regarding getting that oil out of the ground Tullow's share price will certainly react, probably way sooner.

Also the remark that Tullow could have been taken private in the mean time doesn't change the value of our 30%

Conclusion: That Kenya deal is huge for Tullow, and will be reflected in the share price, sooner or later.

Jmax: "That 30% is at least 8 years away, and TLW could easily be taken private by then."

Like we concluded before: the timefactor cannot lead to a conclusion that "Kenya was effectively given away"...

Jmax: . "But no, it was effectively given away."

lol, 30% in the pocket.

Xxjnr: Kenya is indeed a sideshow FOR THE SHAREPRICE now yes. That was my point too... But it is far from a side show for the company!

And no, producing a barrel of oil in Turkana is certainly not $65,- lol....that is as expensive as fracking... lol.

In 2019 they talked about $45, and even that seems high imo...

https://ieakenya.or.ke/blog/the-viability-of-turkana-oil/

Rhd3, you are beeting around the Bush. I don't make up those figures...

If it will Cost 45 dollars to extract a barrel of Oil...

Tullow gave up 70% !!!!!!

They will probably receive a lot more than what is suggested now here...

Remember that the Big shareholders kicked Rahul out for a reason....

I won't get any clear answers. Tullow owned 100%, now they 'own' 30%

If I listen to you guys then I would be inclined to think they have to pay ten dollars for every barrel... Lol.

If the net Profit will be Seven and a half billion dollars.... Tullow will get (in the end)...

Jmac, does not matter, that only influences the time factor. Production cost iper barrel nclude that figure of course...

So the question remains...

Jbond, lets assume they pull not 585 but 500 million barrels out of the ground at a modest $60,- and that it costs them $45,- a barrel production costs...

Tell me how much that 30% back-in stake generates in net profits for Tullow...

I too think the current share price has more to do with some short term 'hurdles'... and more appriciation for the Kenya deal will come after that. I think it's a substantial deal for Tullow.

"The reason the share prices hasn’t moved is because, I suspect, people either are sceptical or want to actually understand what this relates to."

Either way: it doesn't really matter at GBX 13.32

Sales are in the tens of billions of Dollars...

Rhd3, you are somewhat right, but don't go overboard. Even if you cut this number in HALF... we're good.

There can be made a ballpark calculation what the 30% is going to translate to in terms of barrels of oil per year for Tullow...

One conclusion at this time can be made with certainty imo: not one penny has been included in the current shareprice, for whatever reason.

Ok, let's take that approx figure (whether or not it is a bit to low or to high) for a basic ballpark calculation:

Our current market cap is $ 259 million (US Dollar)

$1.2 billion is roughly 5 times our current market cap...

We are at GBX 13.32 now... times 5 is:

Then on Kenya back-in *alone* we should be (in due x time of course) at GBX 66.6

That is one hell of a Devilish number...