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Suspect Miton. They have two funds circa 40M shares in total (20M in each fund) and so below 3% in concert. Suspect also a house view - so may be 1/2 way through selling.
Sustained selling over the past three sessions - it does appear this is an institution liquidating a position (probably for risk more than anything). It seems like a lot of selling - but if it is indeed MI Chelverton UK Equity Growth B @ GBP1,641b - the position of 82,50M shares (a lot) is exactly only a small 0,20% holding of the fund.
Notwithstanding; a significant holder is still required by FCA to disclose this change when they cross the whole percent % thresholds. This is a legal requirement and must be done immediately.
Chelverton @ 0,89% (to go from 4,89% to 4%) = 15M shares.
We've had 20M shares of 'hard selling' over the past three sessions (and more to come today) - it looks like it's all one institution/holder. Suspect they are not exempt under DTR 5.1.5 - and therefore probably must notify under listing rule 17.
Chelverton is about the only single holder that could have sold the volume over the past three sessions without notification; if not Chelverton then who?
Links and rules below.
Total Shares on Issue: 1,688,959,820 (p19 2021 Interim Report)
3% for Threshold Initial/Final for Notification: 50,7M
1% Cross Threshold : 16,9M
Notifications required at: 50,7M (3%), 67,6M (4%), 84,5M (5%)
Chelverton Asset @ 82,50m & 4,89%
Lombard Odier: @ 7,.9m % 4,20%
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/1.html
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=SAV:LSE
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xstu/sav/ownership
https://www.chelvertonam.com/fund/pfs-chelverton-uk-equity-growth/?user_approval=y
Yes, there seems to be selling - but also buying - I prefer go to the real the numbers for reality check.
27Mt @ 1,06% Li2O = 285 kT of 100% Li2O = 286/0,06 = 4,75Mt of 6% conc. = 3,325Mt of 6% conc. @ 70% recovery
Face/spot value at ~US$1.500/t = ~US$5bn of ore in MdB as it stands today. At US$5b can double the extraction costs on be conservative on any number of other metrics - it only changes the value upside 3x or 10x from here (and that is without any addition upgrades etc).
The only gray here is the mine approval, this is being de-risked aggressively with comments from Matos, Galp and the EU.
Super cereal.
That would make sense CamoMelonMan. The EIA is the last major hurdle; but far from the last absolute hurdle - the outcome of the assessment is on environmental grounds as opposed to procedural grounds. If APA were to wait for every single case to be heard and ruled on, then nothing would ever get started.
InBrackets; you've written DIA as opposed to the EIA a few times - is there a difference?
Super cereal.
Trying to gauge when an EIA approval may be announced; it would surely be premature until this case has been heard and upheld/dismissed. Does anybody have the link for this preliminary Aarhus assessment, and know how long (or the mechanism) for consideration of the complaint?
Super cereal.
It would seem that the EIA approval must sure be imminent, perhaps next week or as early as Monday morning. COP26 represents a platform for government leaders to outline past achievements and to details plans for the future, and the creation of a lithium mine and refinery value chain - both which would be Europe's first - would certainly fall into this category.
https://www.publico.pt/2021/10/29/politica/noticia/costa-falha-conferencia-clima-cop26-ambientalistas-criticam-1983086
'From November 8th, the participation in the COP26 of the Minister of Environment and Climate Action, João Pedro Matos Fernandes, is expected'
Published today: https://econews.pt/2021/10/29/brussels-gives-the-government-carte-blanche-to-implement-the-rrp/
"Portugal was one of the first countries to receive a pre-financing payment, having been granted in August the first €2.2 billion tranche. In total, the country will receive €13.9 billion in grants and €2.69 billion in loans under the RRP, between 2021 and 2026."
RRP document: https://recuperarportugal.gov.pt/
Relevant excerpt: Section 1.5.2 Common Projects between Portugal and Spain
- Joint opportunities in identified projects in the renewable hydrogen and the storage and value chain of batteries.
- Joint projects to fight depopulation and territorial cohesion in cross-border areas.
- The two countries created a working group to articulate mechanisms in their respective Recovery Plans to promote business collaboration and implement joint projects, including in the following areas: (including); Exploitation of strategic mineral resources; Electric vehicle value chain
Super cereal.
Man Bear Pig said something about this a few days ago....
Super cereal.
Thursday's size VWAP buyer looks to be back in the market today. 1.3M on the bid at open; this has disappeared so expect to see a delayed print in the next hours.
The impression is that most holders know well the story, so the question is who would be selling at such a critical juncture?
Size buyers are nice to see, but it won't change the EIA outcome to the positive or negative.
Super cereal.
One version of the future is the EIA approval will be announced on 28th or 29th of October.
Hmmm....I wonder if that version of the future could include a use for that decommissioned brownfield Galp site at Matosinhos...y'know, the one near the port of Leixões?
Super cereal.
Takes two to tango surely? You can't manufacture stock out of nowhere, and if there's an institutional/strategic/corporate/HNW buyer, there must be the same on the other side. Market facilitators rarely hold risk assets on book.
Super cereal.
Very thin volume today (7/10/21); looking for some large prints after market.
Super cereal.
8M shares is ~0.47% of issued share capital. Notification required at 3% (https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5/1.html).
Super cereal.
Agreed IB. 8M is super cereal.
Sounds super cereal.