Member Info for ma5k

The notion of a 'bullish reversal' is not supported by technical analysis at the moment. Even a 'bull trap' would appear to be premature at this stage. The downtrend/'market correction' was only confirmed with the breach of the underlying growth trend last Thursday/Friday. IMHO a true 'bull trap' is most likely to occur either where the ma200 coincides with 'psychological' (horizontal support) at around 30p or, more likely, where the descending and ascending trends converge in line with historic support at 28p.

As stated previously it would be very helpful if you were to post your chart interpretations as this enables meaningful scrutiny and constructive debate. My own interpretation is based on my most recently published chart (8th Feb):

http://www.ma5k.com/trading/charts/BMN_19-02-08.jpg

I look forward to seeing your own chart that supports what you have been stating regarding a reversals.

Best regards

~M

Hi

Thanks for your response - I have always valued your observations and thoughts which are greatly appreciated! :-)

When you state that "a bubble has to exhibit a price that strongly exceeds an asset's intrinsic value" this is often true of large stocks where the intrinsic value closely correlates with the SP but on smaller stocks, and particularly AIM, there is usually disparity between the intrinsic value & the market's **perceived** value (on which the SP is based). For this reason a bubble can occur when the price strongly exceeds the perceived value regardless of the underlying intrinsic value (which will quite often only correlate occasionally and even then by coincidence). I'm sure you will have noticed that the 'bubble' is the most common chart pattern with AIM shares. I believe this typically occurs because there are a large number of traders/investors who simply 'jump on the band wagon' of a rising share causing it to overheat followed by an inevitable 'market correction'. The intrinsic value is irrelevant in these circumstances as the share price movements are determined by the market consensus of perceived value alone regardless of whether this is fair or not.

Thanks again for your input & all the best with your investment here.

Assuming we're still in 'denial'...

http://www.ma5k.com/trading/charts/BMN_Bubble.jpg

If the double top was the 'New Paradigm', the true 'bull trap' is perhaps yet to come?

http://www.ma5k.com/trading/charts/BubbleStages.jpg

(Assuming we're still in denial!!)

"Share prices aren't integers. They are reals."

Or, perhaps for some, 'imaginary numbers'?!

I don't know 'for a fact', but my background in programming & artificial intelligence leads me to strongly believe that the process of Market Making is (almost) entirely automated. The algorithms employed will have been rigorously tested for regulatory compliance and the urban myths about MMs 'playing the market' to their advantage are just that - urban myths.

Their primary function is to facilitate liquidity and they are *reactive* by nature. They achieve profitability through the spread which reflects the risk at any given point of time. This is carefully calculated across all shares they trade to ensure that their profit margin is maintained overall despite making a loss on some transactions (statistically balanced by their gain on others).

There is almost certainly a 'manual over-ride' but use of this will likely be restricted and a rare occurrence (the algorithms should trigger an alert if there is an anomaly in the trading data/characteristics that exceeds the pre-determined parameters).

IMHO

Alpha - I believe it is you who is 'completely wrong'.

Due to the inadequacies of the reporting system, it is not possible for even an expert professional analyst to reliably identify whether an individual trade is a 'buy' or 'sell' for certain. It is however possible to determine overall buying or selling 'pressure' by the direction of the market.

You are misinformed by popular myth with regard to Market Makers 'taking a position'.

That'll be gold...

http://ma5k.com/trading/charts/GOLD_17-09-30b.jpg

I would tend to agree that your chart illustrates the trading strategy of your average investor!

:-)

"If Bmn can deliver 49p this month (or 85p this spring:)"

I would be very interested in any technical analysis that suggests such a notion as plausible.

Perhaps you would be good enough to post a chart that supports your interpretation?

Thanks in advance

The data doesn't lie RichKen.

No matter how many 'trading analysis' reports people might spin in an attempt to paint the picture as rosy by claiming more buys than sells, the underlying science of market mechanics is simple - if there is buying pressure the price goes up and if there is selling pressure the price goes down.

Even a casual glance at the data shows a clear downtrend and all the evidence suggests it is not done yet.

Blaming manipulation, Market Makers. shorters, AIM corruption or whatever makes for nice conspiracy theories but helps no one. The most likely explanation is that some of the 'whiter than white' LTH's can recognise a peak when they see one and are now trying to at the very least de-risk if not liquidate their positions.

IMHO. DYOR, GLA etc etc

Agreed 1onic - confirmation of sustained market correction with breach of underlying growth trend last Thursday/Friday:

http://www.ma5k.com/trading/charts/BMN_19-02-08.jpg

Thanks for the Bee Gee vid link... never really took much notice of them but really enjoyed this - what a thoroughly decent chap!

"Cash remaining from the £2.8m received will be required to cover transaction costs. It is anticipated that after meeting these costs there there will not be any remaining funds available for distribution to shareholders...so why would anybody in their right mind give approval to this deal?...looks like we are going to receive nothing anyway."

You seem to have misunderstood! ...The £2.8 million is the proceeds from the sale of assets that will then belong to the shell company... The 1p/share deal is completely separate. If there is a 'yes' vote on this then the consortium will pay shareholders directly and they will receive that 1p/share. The consortium will then own the shell (including the £2.8 million proceeds!)... if however the vote is 'no', then the consortium will pay nothing further and the shell (including the £2.8 million) will remain the property of shareholders. However if the shell company is then liquidated (as has been stated will happen) the cost of doing this will use the funds remaining in the shell leaving shareholders with nothing.

In summary, the 1p/share is pretty much guaranteed if the vote is yes and will come directly from the consortium. Only if the vote is 'no' will Flybe be liquidated with the expectation of nothing for shareholders.

calamari is correct - the 1p is paid directly to shareholders with no deductions 962962.

I think it unlikely you will not get your 1p 'bottom line' as, while I fully respect your principals, it seems likely that most will consider 'something' better than nothing when voting. Besides, a 'no' vote will not significantly inconvenience the board who will simply wind the company up as stated. The only other risk is that a delay (such as an injunction) could cause Flybe to go under before the deal goes through leaving shareholders with nothing.

Many will be in the same position and the share price is likely to be volatile until the eleventh hour.

Tough call whether to sell now... easier said than done, but a detached rational assessment of what is in your financial best interests is probably favourable over an emotion driven rebellion that is likely to hurt only yourself?

Only my two-penny's-worth (soon to be 1p!) and very best of luck whatever you decide!

Best regards

Thanks for the comments but might be best to discuss on TECA so this board can be kept just as an archive for charts that folk have requested in order that they remain easy to find & don't get lost in messages???

Thanks! :-)

The idea that there are a bunch of malign champagne-sipping, cigar-smoking deviants watching shares closely and conspiring to undermine PIs is ludicrous... The function of Market Making is almost entirely automated and while the computer algorithms are no doubt optimised to ensure profitability (they are a business after all), they nevertheless simply respond to market movements in order to maintain liquidity. Techniques such as widening or narrowing the spread are programmed to temporarily stimulate or subdue trading and the 'misreporting' of buys & sells is a consequence of, not the purpose for, this. They have no interest in whether the SP rises or falls so long as a healthy (liquid) market is maintained. They are heavily regulated and, while malpractice certainly exists in all areas of life, have well-established lucrative businesses which rely on proven integrity for success. In short, they're benign.

Besides no-one needs to conspire to part fools from their money - they are perfectly capable of doing that for themselves!

http://www.ma5k.com/trading/charts/BMN_19-02-08.jpg

http://www.ma5k.com/trading/charts/BMN_19-02-07.jpg

Closed below underlying growth trend today... only just so (slight) chance of bounce tomorrow, else...

http://www.ma5k.com/trading/charts/BMN_19-02-07.jpg

IMHO etc!