Member Info for M20ASH

Paul, no thoughts on GGP or ECR as yet. Held a few shares in THR many years ago, but sold out at a loss. Never seemed to be going anywhere and the constant fund raises and dilution suggested it was more of a lifestyle business for Mick Billings rather than an investment. Haven’t looked at it for a long time, but I assume they are still digging around Molyhill?

Pretty comprehensive coverage I would say VanVan. Much appreciated.

Evening Joe, small tick up today so we may have hit bottom. I made the same mistake as you buying back in too early, but have some cash, if it drops a bit lower or looks like moving up again.
Not sure that the fall in the £ against the $ is necessarily a bad thing for Ariana. Although the gold is sold in TL, it is immediately converted to $ and then held to repay the loan(s) and converted back to TL to pay the running costs. An increasing $ gold price and depreciating £ and TL against the $ should in theory improve the financial results.
I also note that the current market capitalisation has now fallen so is now based on a PE of 10 based on the 2018 results and doesn’t factor in the likely improvement in revenues for the current year based on the increased gold price. I would, however, expect increased finance costs to counter some of the improvement in revenues. We will no doubt get a better view of the picture unfolding when we get the interim results in September.
Other than that, it is not apparent whether more news is due in the next month - maybe the additional results from Salinbas and some early results from the deeper drilling at Kiziltepe, depending on the length of the drilling program.
Sometimes you just have to take the long-term view. I’m still more than comfortable with the 2-3 year potential here.

Would anyone else like to sell out as I’ve got a spare £20k to go in here at a bargain price. Thanks

Too many glasses of red wine!

Through adversity to the stars. Used to read the old interactive investor board many years ago as well as looking in on the LSE board from time to time. Thanks to Camp for his maps, Chem for his specialist knowledge & so many others for making it part of the journey. First bought around 10p, but like many got caught out when the planning application was pulled first time out. Several years later after a divorce and having to sell up, putting my daughter through college & and a modest inheritance I’m invested again. Got a good feeling this time round. Got my Dad invested as well - he’s 89 now, did his National Service in the 607 Durham squadron - not many left - got the freedom of Durham last year - dead proud of him and the guys he flew with in the old Meteors - surprised any are still around to tell the tale!
Anyway, I have some thoughts about the conditions that have to be met in addition to the sale of the senior bonds, but I’ll save those for now. Suffice to say, I’m confident the bonds will get away because of the yield and appeal to many funds that look to invest in organic products and sustainable investments. If I’m wrong, please feel free to shoot me down with a spud gun - I would prefer the spuds have had the benefit of Poly 4.
GLA

Had me checking the sp when I first read you post Paul! But yes, down we go. First hole started drilling last Thursday from the twitter feeds - thanks for the link VanVan - so maybe a couple of months to complete and get some results back. Fingers crossed John!

Onwards and upwards John, onwards and upwards....

May well be Paul, but all we can do on here is debate, share our knowledge & try and have a bit of banter from time to time. We certainly cannot influence events and I would urge any readers of this Board to read up and check out everything for themselves. I have 36 years experience preparing & reading financial accounts, but the information is limited and has to be backed up by further research, especially when you are risking considerable amounts of money.
Anyway, that’s far too serious so on to my favourite joke...I was at the doctor’s the other day and he said you’ll have to stop masturbating. I said why is that? He said, because I’m trying to examine you!

Should all keep things ticking along nicely!

Absolutely agree John. Even if production is as low as 20K oz of gold for 2020 with similar market prices for gold and silver, the lower loan repayments and interest costs together with the lower amortisation cost of the mine asset should still see an improvement in the JV results. Comforting to know that there is a reasonable safety net and then looking further forward to 2021 with Tavsan potentially coming on stream, the step up should be significant. I would be a little disappointed once we have both mines producing 50K oz per annum, say 2022, but still repaying the loan to get Tavsan up and running, to see the sp below 7-8p. Might be a bit too long-term for some, but it will do for me right now.

Hi John & Paul. I've spent some time today going back over previous drilling updates for Kiziltepe to see if there are any clues. There were definitely good intercepts in the central area of the Arzu South pit around the pit floor at 90-100m along with other results around the pit area that suggests some further exploration is warranted.
If they don't find anything of significance, then in isolation, this may be construed as slightly negative, but if you look at the bigger picture with work commencing to start mining Arzu North and Derya in Q4 and the final drill results from Salinbas, the news flow should hopefully balance this out and doesn't change the overall prospects and value here.

Finally a chance to review the numbers from CK. Pretty much spot on and led me to think I should expand my model to project quarterly taking actual results to date into account. I have assumed guidance production of gold at 6,250oz per quarter and silver at 82,500oz and used CK's average prices for Q3 to date rising modestly to $1,425 and $15.25 for Q4.
This gives me revenues of $10.06m for Q3 and $10.16m for Q4, which gives a slightly lower total for the year than CK, but with a GBP/USD exchange rate of 1.25 in H2, the GBP revenues are £8.05m and £8.13m, which gives me a higher total for the year than my previous forecast at £32.07m.
Assuming all JV costs remain in line as I previously estimated, the upshot is a JV profit after tax of around £8.13m with 50% to Ariana and assuming similar numbers from elsewhere in the group to 2018, I anticipate Ariana's profit for the year could exceed £2.5m, which on a straight PE of 10 without factoring in any value elsewhere suggests the sp is potentially oversold and should have a base around 2.4p without any discount for perceived geopolitcial and economic risk facing Turkey. I'd like to think that Kiziltepe will continue to carry on quietly producing and those risks will have compensatory effects in terms of the gold price and the TL exchange rate. I guess only time will tell...

Hi Joe, more gut feel rather than a crystal ball, but the sp is still in an upwards trend and may be a little oversold given the underlying value here. Might see some action tomorrow with this evening's jump in the gold price assuming it lasts overnight. I think the 1m buy was a late reported trade from yesterday morning, but the buyer probably thinks there's more to come in the short term. I might look to add first thing tomorrow.

If you are a higher rate tax payer, £25K will be added to your SIPP and currently you can claim another £25K back from HMRC giving you the 40% relief. You can then add this additional £25K and get further tax relief and so on.

Very likely to have the preliminary Q2 results, but we will have to wait until September I suspect for the full interims. I really want to see whether they bear out my thoughts on profit for the year or need to amend my thinking.
Anything on Tavsan in the near future will also be welcome news as this is the next stepping stone.

My thoughts - 1) gold price has not moved further upwards 2) the latest Salinbas drilling results don't initially seem to indicate Ariana have another Hot Maden on their hands 3) news is out and the buy the rumour, sell on the news brigade have sold and moved on or gone to cash waiting for an opportunity to buy in at a lower price.
What next? Sp seems about right atm given the last financial results and a pe of 10 so no great expectations of an upward movement unless the gold price starts to tick up again. In all likelihood, we may see a downward drift without further news. I am interested to see the production and selling numbers to update my model.
John, I think you were wise to sell some of your HUR. Next drill results could be positive, but another duster would almost certainly see a similar fall to the last one. Definitely, not invested as I avoid oilies like the plague having lost thousands in my more naive days, but also curious enough to look in now and again.
I appreciate your views on SXX and I'm not suggesting for a minute that you invest right now, but if they get the £500m of senior bonds away, then the sp rise should be significant in the short term. Maybe worth staying in cash for a couple of months and awaiting the outcome. You won't get the same gain as buying in now, if it plays out ok, but the potential to buy in on the rise and then sell at a profit is worth considering?
Anyway, enough for now. I'm off to the smoke tomorrow with my daughter to see Florence & the Machine in Hyde Park. Mrs A is in Liverpool with her daughter to watch the netball world cup. i know where I'd rather be (apologies to any other netball fanatics. Paul1Deano?)

Firstly, thanks to those posters who took the time to attend the presentation and secondly, for the very useful and informative feedback. It is very much appreciated. Good to hear that there is so much confidence from the BoD and PG. Looking forward to the drilling results from Salinbas and any further upward moves in the gold price.

Doh! Not to travel to Turkey, Shouldn't even try to type on my phone without my glasses on!

Evening Joe, I wasn’t able to attend & it’s been a bit quiet here. Apparently, the British Foreign & Commonwealth Office have just advised anyone to travel to Turkeywithin 10km of the Syrian border. Don’t they realise it would take 2 days to drive from where most people go on holiday to get to the Syrian border!
However, if anyone has been able to pick up a few pointers, that would be helpful.