The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Xerxes. There's nothing to repent. The facts / numbers have been there and are still there for anyone to see, understand, and verify for themselves. They don't change. The only thing could 'rescue' Kibo and its 'management' is another Kohinoor diamond turning up in its coal.
Get your facts right Mr Slong. Kibo is only one of many stocks I research and am sometimes invested in. I post what I see for the benefit of the intelligent. Kibo is one of the worst stocks and worst managements I've ever come across in 40 years consulting and in the stockmarket.
Womb and Wag - Why on earth should this be worth 'more than £5m ? Moz, Bots, Med have had 'nothing' like what is necessary spent on them yet. Bots was sold to Kibo by Shumba at twice its value (money spent) on their books - ie real value to Kibo only $5.5m - there'e no 'value' anywhere else until money is spent to develop. Meanwhile kibo is strapped. Those chasing this latest spike are just speculators hoping the lemmings will give them a good run - with no idea of the real cash-strapped 'Kibo' - they think (because it looks bombed out on the charts) that its GOT to recover ! I've said already, based on the proper analysis and calculation that no-one else seems capable of doing - that IF ALL GOES WELL - AND - Kibo doesn't have to issue more than some 50% more than its present shares (Very questionable), the market MIGHT accord it a value of 5p per share IN MORE THAN FIVE YEARS TIME !What fool would pay more than 1p now for that highly uncertain prospect that far ahead ? Sonic and Jax are right.
With reports saying "Tanesco won't be taking power from MCPP", wording might imply they're not willing to pay a capacity charge. That would be in line with hints earlier last year that some in Tanesco were opposed to it. (They don't understand the economics won't work without it - but that's their problem) Maybe the project that has been accepted won't make one.Either way, there won't be nearly enough demand from other possible offtakers to justify MCPP's size.
Can't read it on a desktop. Can you repost here ? From what I've seen its the 2014 feasibility figures when project wasn't integrated with the coal mine, and neither was the transmission line included. figs are in line with what I'd expect, but EBITDA isn't enough to work out net earnings or dividends which will be after the loan repayments - for Kibo's MCPP, loan repayments take 55% of cash flow in first 12 years. Thats before royalties and tax.
Sorry Badeli I haven't a clue. All I know is that many mining related projects on the main market, let alone AIM, don't see their published project values reflected in their shares until the last moment !
Re the 'norm' - I have no idea. I've suggested to Hanno a number of times that he should publish the updated feasibility study (2012 is obsolete and for separate mine) which would give the required figures and would enable shareholders to value the co more accurately. But he hasn't taken it up, perhaps for confidentiality, but also because we won't necessarily know shares in issue at FC. That's because the co, as well as using its back payment to invest in the project, might raise cash (at unknown share price) to increase its stake up to 40%. At present its back payment won't go that high. Or, yet again, it might (as Hanno hinted)) use its back payment to fund another venture altogether. Agree the 'back payment' if it is $30-$40m (and we don't know that either) tells us the shares are undervalued now. But until we know how NCCL is going to use that cash, we can't value it accurately.
Maybe others could pressure Hanno to release the feasibility figures.
mike PS. Some (wrongly) think that the project capex and GE's etc contribution is a guide to NCCL's value. It isn't. Its a completely separate issue from NCCL. Tete is a stand-alone project in which NCCL will be partly invested. Its capex is nothing to do with value to the project's equity shareholders and to NCCL once built. Sorry to labour the point, but some seem to persist in confusing the two. Once you realise that basic point, you can understand the picture better.
mike29. No it doesn't. But the full value won't be realised in the market until all the numbers I've listed are known. And that can't be until Financial Close. GE and CMEC investing in the project won't give us its value once up and running. It will merely be their share of the equity in the project - ie their contribution to its capex. We know nothing at present about the capex,nor what the loan/equity % will be. And JDA is unlikely to give the profitability although we could guess depending on whatever detail is announced. If it does so much the better, but I suspect not.
The number you want is the dividend per share GE and CMEC will agree to be paid to themselves and NCCL once the project is up and running, which in turn will determine NCCL's income, and, depending on its shares in issue at that time, the price it will deserve in the market. Alternatively/in addition whatever spare cash NCCL will end up with after Financial Close. Nothing else is relevant. All the wild statistics you keep posting are totally irrelevant.
You keep wondering why people seem to be selling, or not pushing the shares up right now. You're only a tiny fish in the small pond that is LSE, against the large no of experienced and institutional shareholders being advised by the brokers and who don't give a monkeys for anything posted on here. They can do the numbers that you have shown you can't. You wanted to know. I'm telling you.
Tosh ? I've watched a lot of your tosh pass by on this board CF ! Only at Financial Close will we know the economics of the project - ie exact capex; profitability, after loan repayments, to equity shareholders; and exactly what will be any credit to NCCL for past spending; whether NCCL will plough it back into an equity share or add to it by raising more from shareholders (Hanno having confirmed last year that, as for all other such projects, there will be no such thing as a ;'free carry'). Whether there will be other equity funders apart from GE and CMEC; He's even said - which you don't seem to have heard, - that EPC bids are still to be finalised. Knowing all those factors is necessary to work out NCCL's value per share. JDA won't be much help - depending what else the co releases.
Because Hanno reconfirmed FC as end 2000. While JDA MIGHT (not necessarily) give some numbers, FC will confirm project shares and NCCL's financial comittment. - a long time to wait.
For SleepyDave - reply to your Tues 19:35
Re Moz. NCCL feasibility studies Don't know where you got extra $20m required, but they've been completed - otherwise JDA wouldn't be imminent and GE and CMEC wouldn't have committed their $60% investment. Admittedly NCCL haven't published the updated integrated study. But spokesman has publicised various stats from it, which enable us to judge its main points - particularly the irr's which are always about the same for all government guaranteed power projects. He's also revealed other ststs and points which I've mentioned here in the past.
On the other hand Moz DFS is only 'in progress' and its cost not yet revealed. And Bots is even less advanced with only a pre-feasibily study on the mine and a scoping study on the power plant. Means still a long way and much spending to go before we even know its economically viable.
As for the rest - Haven't time to flog through all the numbers in detail. But rough comparisons will help you see the difference.
Mbeya was the only real equivalent to NCCL's Tete project. Moz and Bots project are worth no more than what Kibo has paid for them (c $10m) because nothing has been spent yet to develop them. Med will be too small to count before the funds needed to develop them which Kibo doesn't have.
Even if Moz & bots are developed, their total project size as far as Kibo is concerned will only be equivalent to Mbeya (85% of Bots, less15% of profits royalty to pay, means worth 70% of Mbeya) (65% of Benga, only 150MW, no coal, means worth about 30% of Mbeya)
Even going by sizes of projects and resources (before its larger project share) NCCL is much the larger.
1) It has much more coal over and above needed for its long term power plans (1,800 MW), and is close to export opportunities now being developed.
2) Tete capex is $1bn against Kibo's projects' (Mbeya or Moz+Bots) capex around $650m (assumed). At equivalent profitability, means NCCL's total project profit to be shared is 1.5x Kibo's
3) NCCL has paid a lot more in costs which it will receive back on financial close. Around $30-$40m - against $19m as would have been at Mbeya, but nothing so far for Moz and Bots.
4) NCCL's share of its project will be far higher than Kibo's could ever have been. With its back costs, NCCL expects to end with c 40%. Kibo never could have had more than 19% for Mbeya, and will have less than 10% of Mabeseweka on spending so far. To get more it will have to spend more, which it doesn't have !
5) NCCL has only 285m shares in issue (more to be issued on loan conversion but still low) against Kibo's 640m and rising.
Add up all those factors, and you'll see why NCCL has ADB as a cornerstone investor while having signed up GE and CMEC to fund its project, which has completed and paid for all its necessary studies while Kibo has spent nothing so far on Moz or Bots or Med. All adds up to why NCCL has also always warranted a larger market cap than Kibo, and an even higher s
Slong - re Med revenues. I posted this last August. "Going by UK Power Reserve's operating companies, (similar to proposed by MAST) capex for a 20MW plant is around £8-£10m, on which it might earn £1.5m pa revenue with an operating profit up to £1m." Agreed these are all likely to be different from each other. But not by that much.
You can look up UKPR's operating companies' finances on Companies Houe web site.
Absurd and financially illiterate 'hopes' for rescuing KIbo on here. ('MCPP fire sale !! - PPA's, Med etc) None any use without funding and Kibo has no cash. It is almost 'Bust' - which means insolvent, which means no cash to pay bills. Its only hope is to sell off some of its remaining projects (it will get no more than it paid for them and probably less) or to be bailed out.
Shumba has lost the biggest packet, and will lose even more if Kibo does go under, having lost 85% of Mabeseweka. It can't subscribe for enough Kibo shares to bail it out without exceeding the 30% limit, but could make a full bid (if it can persuade its own shareholders) Might be the only way out, but won't necessarily improve the share price if it issues its own shares.) Either way, LC's 'advisers' could be licking their lips at the fees LC ( aka Kibo shareholders) will be shelling out to clear up this mess.
You don't seem to realise Wimbo, that if Kibo can't raise cash, or a loan, or enough to show the auditors it can pay its creditors, it wil be technically bust - regardless it has 'investments' in Moz Bots and Med. It will then have to de-list.
By the way, as a major shareholder, why don't you contact Shumba (who has lost more even than you and unlikely to recover it) what they are doing about it ? Ditto Mast.