'Afraid you've missed the fact that while the 'size' and 'value' of a project probably (not necessarily) does increase after spending on it, what counts for shareholders is the value per share, which unfortunately in the case of Kibo can be predicted fairly accurately won't increase over the five years before Bots or Moz contributes, (and certainly not Med) or the likely ten years before MCPP signs up export offtakers and (much more difficult without one sovereign government guaranteeing payments) any financing. The only entity to benefit will be LC, who, with increasing size will pay himself more. But will he buy the shares ? You tell me, but I bet he won't, and neither will the chairman.
topshare ! Kibo ! Near the finishing line ? - Go and look again. Its as far away as it ever was - in fact even furthter.
PhilB - An NPV is merely the value now, of all future income. Paying it to buy that income is absurd. You won't be making any profit. Its a fund-raiser's trap to lure in the unwary. Even if the income works out as expected, and the shares in issue work out as planned, share prices have never, ever anywhere near approached any 'NPV' value for any mining or project related share of the hundreds I've known over the last 20 years.
Doesn't matter to me old chap. You obviously missed that I was recommending NCCL over all other ctp's 4 years ago, and many times afterwards on here. If you don't understand the limitations of your own understanding of this share, you're just the sort of trading fodder I like ! - will add to add to my triple bag on here, even at the current low price - and to the amusement potential !
Bazilion - a whore's drawers more likely
Hybridan's method was nonsense. But if I explain why you'll accuse me of de-ramping. I've set out the correct method in past posts, and am in myself in a big way. Work all that out !
Sirius owns its project (subject to loans etc) NCCL and all such ctp 's are 'sponsors' and don't have the clout to 'own' their projects (except the coal resource in NCCL's case) which have to be financed (and therefore 'owned' (via equity) by outside investors. In other words there is no comparison.
Unfortunately any cash income from Med will be very small, given the irrs and npvs LC has announced, and the relatively small small investment planned. It certainly won't be enough to keep Kibo's lights on for the five years until any of the larger projects delivers anything more, And nothing whatsoever towards the cost of Kibo keeping meaningful stakes in any of them. I'm afraid significantly more share dilution is nailed on.
Sorry Tradedesk. If you've had any dealings with AIM nomads, you'd know that they know little about the economics of projects like this, but certainly would know that any 'free carry' or 'developer premium' can't possibly be calculated or agreed until financial close when all sources of funds, and their terms, are agreed. And Hanno has shown he could know more, by neglecting to ensure that investors can see the latest economics for Tete, when the last one published was for a different project 7 years ago. But go ahead and assume what you like ! Others will benefit from your dealing miss-steps !.
Tradedesk - I aim to keep expectations within sensible bounds. I've found Hanno's numbers to be a bit flaky in the past. $20-$40m is a pretty wide guess on his part. Unlike 'allowable' historic spending - the clue is in the 'allowable' - any payment above a sensible development fee (hardly likely to be anywhere near the amounts spent on necessary work and planning) will detract from the outside funders returns. Banks won't fund a 'development premium' so it will all add to the equity, and will detract from the equity funders' returns - which will be cut to the bone anyway in order to get the tariffs down. . It will only be confirmed at financial close when the other funders will have to agree. So I wouldn't count on $40m if I were you, and not even $20m
You only get developers premiums for projects (commercial property usually, but during past property slumps developers 'premiums' have turned negative !) which can be sold on after completion at a profit (the premium) Thats not the case for power projects guaranteed by the state, which doesn't allow the tariffs it subsidises to provide a big profit for the builders. There will probably be a 'developers fee' - built into the costs agreed by the govt - but unlikely to be anything like $40m !
'Fraid not Ian.The sensible will be redeploying their quick profit into NCCL. This news is of no consequence whatsoever for a 'value' for Kibo. If its projects were ever to get off the ground it would have needed the 'promise' of facilities like those on the table. One has to ask where has Barclays gone ? Where have GEC and Sepco gone ? This is for 'debt' anyway, and not for the vital equity thatK ibo and others will have to provide. It makes no difference to the sums whereby Kibo shareholders's interests will be diluted away and away. Is on this sort of false news that the inexperienced spike a share. The experienced will be cashing in.
There is no 'correct' price for anything. Only what someone else thinks is 'worth' paying. Or only what someone else 'at the margin' thinks is worth paying. If you don't understand that, you shouldn't be investing in shares. If you did understand that, you would be researching what is actually being, or has been, paid for the share or asset you're interested in. On AIM, you're right that there is usually a vast discrepancy between what 'some' people think is a 'correct' price and what is actually achieved. You should learn to live with it.
Unable to understand the sitation, as usual Mr Wag ? Sepco only ever have wanted to supply kit. Those on here thought they wanted LC and his genius. If that, Sepco'd have bought in already at the low share price, so as to get the biggest shareholding in Kibo and arm-lock on LC, and so on the other 'projects' . They obviously believe in none of it - but no need to say so, merely to wait in case any rabbits pop up. Meanwhile LC can evade needing to admit anything, but will string the clappies along with more of today's. And it's Sanderson will get the arm-lock.
If Sepco wanted to back Kibo as such, they would have come up with the dosh before Sanderson has to. Its obvious they're waiting for some rabbit to come out of the hat. And having sunk so much dosh already, they'd may as well just wait.
Wag - Re LC's career achievements. Dear oh Dear ! Have you checked out any of those you list ? Thought not. Have you ckecked out the most recent - Muzuri ? Do you know why Kibo had to consolidate 15 for 1 in March 2013 ? Did you check out that more than half ex Muzuri sharholders had baled out of Kibo in the previous months ? - Thought not - so you wouldn't even have asked why ? Do you know what the curriculum covers at business schools ? Do you know that lawyers are not generally numerate and generally not good at planning ahead - as engineers and successful entrepreneurs have to be ? So many t hings you haven't had the wit to think about, let alone research thoroughly. So Sad - so -Sooo Sad ! - as a certain politician is wont to say.