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FTSE250 Feb-Aug Bull flag broke up today (looks bullish) FTSE350 Fin Svcs is testing resistance today (could go either way) CGB.L Major rising spt at 1250 tested & respected 3 times - looks solid. TA similar to FT250 - ie a bull flag that broke up at 1291 - taking out minor resistance at 1300 & last trend high at 1319 confirms Whether it retests 1270 or just runs depends on mkt sentiment & geopoliticals Within 5% of its 3yr %oversold boundary Fundamentals look good Bkr consensus looks a bit under - possibly by as much 50p-100p DYOR as usual ATB LM
should be £15-£16
Traders over reaction to the negative line about increased costs due to rising business center rollout rate - not put very well by the co I feel - bit too stark - the underlying business is generating cash and growing - growth is slowed by ccy Ironically RGU are doing the correct thing by expanding - investors dont want them to stand still or shrink so not sure what else RGU are supposed to do?
No mystery - it tracked sct & idx up - I calc 12m rolling fwd trgt @ 222 so 10 bkr consensus of 228 looks spot on
with the big boys now www.investegate.co.uk/gable-holdings-inc--gah-/rns/gen-re-signs-as-reinsurance-partner/201408110700057000O/
When it eventually goes to 7 pound - its a 100 bagger! Dont see that everyday :)
It was 7p in 1983 ! :) Ranged between 60 & 160 - '87-'97 - multiple splits in that period - fashionable then Went as low as 35 in '98 Apart from the big financial crisis plunge in 2009 - its been on the march ever since My spreadsheet calcs it could be 100 points higher next yr (650) so recent dip (500) was a bargain ATB LM
www.investegate.co.uk/utilitywise-plc--utw-/rns/year-end-trading-update/201408050700142283O/
Hi CM - i use an average fwd pe method inc the sector fwd pe - works pretty well if all the pe's are within normal bounds and v.handy to cross check if bkrs are over or under Downside of that method is if the pes are very high it tends to shoot high and if the pes are very low it tends to shoot low (so high in this case - thats why i asked if others had any trgts by other means - no negative comment on ECK - its completely normal for the pe's go a little crazy when swinging from loss to profit - my system doesn't work well in that particular scenario) Upside of that method is if you spot normal to low pes and the trgt is still high then it indicates potential v.strong value or bkrs are behind the curve - Next PLC for example. Of course if a stk has notable foreign risk it may operate at a permanent 30% discount to mkt - so some interpretation & a little understanding required usually ATB LM
Any analyst SP targets on this? I calc around 85-90p (using a very primitive method) Any others?
With the US indices falling of a cliff being in a really really dull share is probably one of the better places to be!
Assuming that the General Retail sector and FT250 dont tank (dow is quite bizarrely propped up? By the govt?) And assuming this isnt going to do the worlds largest H&S..! Which seeing as its continually growing would be overly harsh Then that 3rd bounce was the turn I reckon - basically because the two most important lower trend lines have been respected - bounce 1 & 2 off 1640 horizontal - 3rd off 1690 which is a long term rising trend line on the log chart (and if it holds then its not an H&S) Technically 1825 seems easily doable - then 1890 & 2000 mkt sentiment allowing in the autumn/xmas rally Fundamentally the PE & bkr trgts seem a touch high IMHO given the growth rates are slowing (*****y I know) - but 2000 looks very reasonable - might have a punt here with a tight stop DYOR as usual ATB LM
..perfect buy both fundamentally and technically BUT - never underestimate nasty govt intervention to completely f*** a good sector Plus the p*** take 6% MM spread makes it untradeable - shame - bloody good co.
So - according to this theory (& I think the RNS have to bear out the high f'casts) PureCircle Ltd [PURE] is about to pop although looking at the eye watering PE & PR/Book its the worlds worst kept secret! Im watching closely...
Yes the seasonal dog days of summer vs the santa rally either side of xmas probably much to do with it if you look longer term - the fund mgrs play the seasons and defensives for sure Good tip: If you have the FTSE100, 250, Small Cap, AIM100, DOW & STOXX 50 charts all open simultaneously on one of your screens with a few basic trend lines its terribly revealing - right now DOW is at the top and AIM100 is at the btm - so as you say - AIM can be an early barometer - greater risk and volatility there seems to force folks hand rather quicker - the mkt is nervous and searching for direction. Large caps seem to be held up by bid banter and defensives. I suspect most folks are aware of trying to get in about a month before a hot announcement - the technique outlined below is getting in a month before a hot FY2 f'cast comes into play ie before it becomes FY1 Sometimes its spectacular with a doubling of price within a few mths and sometimes it isnt - so trying to isolate further - will let you know - bull mkt and hot predictions coming true in the news or not probably much to do with it I suspect Tks for the tip re Growth Company Investor - will have a look ATB LM
A couple of examples: Imagine you entered a mth before official year end ie the whole earnings/f'cast table was one notch lower than now Then check the corresponding dates on the chart http://www.digitallook.com/companyresearch/201246/Styles_Wood_Group/company_research.html? http://www.digitallook.com/companyresearch/11246/Character_Group/company_research.html? Spectacular - but it doesnt always work: http://www.digitallook.com/companyresearch/2523807/Shaft_Sinkers_Holdings/company_research.html? I guess it depends if the newsflow bears out the ambitious FY2 prediction - so need a way to judge f'cast quality? Only way I can think of to do that is perhaps something like Starmine Professional which is a top end service which I dont have & probably couldnt afford anyway - or perhaps some other way? Never the less - the risk/reward ratio is exciting if one could catch a few of these... LM
...that has taken place since feb on many sectors and aim - I suspect lots of folks got slightly singed - only the very experienced & professionals would have known in advance to switch into defensives such as water and tobacco when Putin went in - I will remember next time! Looking at lots of indices and charts we may be in (or indeed just had) the third phase of accumulation (end of bull mkt) so not expecting much fun in the nr term I know you like smooth low volatility risers - me too - although that pattern rarely coincides with zulu principles? im not sure it coincides with anything? it just is - so im thinking of constructing an index of such stocks with the option to add defensives to counteract the downturns - a major piece of work - will let you know if I have any luck there in creating a continual smooth rising portfolio - easy in a bull mkt - challenging in a sideways/bear mkt - but perhaps the very best time to test it! In the meantime would be interested on your thoughts on the question below - could be very interesting indeed if it has some statistical confidence ATB LM
...or to be more specific the trading update that marks the yr end (before the finals)
HI CM - hows it going chap? Pretty tricky mkt last few months eh? I hope you have faired the rough waters ok. I wanted to ask your opinion on something Looking at the meteoric SP rise of co's such as Character Group and Thomas Cook - I noticed in both cases that the rise began at the finals upon which the FY1 EPS% F'cast growth (v.negative) expires and is replaced with the FY2 EPS% F'cast growth (v.positive ie FY2 becomes FY1) Presumably the results indicated a turn of fortune and the new FY1 expectation was quite dramatically brighter. I know that those rises also coincided with a bit of a bull mkt etc - but have you noticed similar behavior & timing elsewhere and had any success catching that strong rise using that technique? ATB LM
Don't agree with that Rip Off comment for a number of reasons: A) 121 quid - are you kidding - I saved nearly a grand when i switched deals! 100 quid is chump change B) They promise to be cheaper than the big six and stick to it - not the cheapest to the penny C) Having all the bills in one place and knowing they are all reasonably fair is a benefit to those who dont want to spend their lives scratching for the best deal all the time - life is too short - something the most expensive deals exploit! D) The grocery shopping mkt is restructuring and the 5% discount card goes down well with customers The offering is good as long as they maintain it - negatives are quite different I would have thought CFO leaving - sector is toppy - bkr trgt of 2000 is obviously punchy - 1500-1600 more realistic - DOW at top - geoploiticals - Water & Tobacco are defensives - Fixed Line Telecoms aren't etc etc Hard to call this one - will the business model hold in the long term - and what will the mkt/sector do short/medium term are the main considerations for me - I wouldnt be surprised at a 4th qtr bounce up to 1500 - but after that heaven knows ATB LM