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...1900 with good news flow and successful expansion into china etc? I note the FD just moved a very large chunk of shares under her name :) GLA LM
...7.5m shares - quite chunky for one hit !
This looks like a cracking stock to me at a quick glance - post bounce, post divi news, post results it natural for people who have done well to take profits if they cant wait for the consolidation phase - it might meander for a few months beofre the next leg up- all normal & healthy
I also double checked one other important point to be on the safe side - was the issuance to cover capital adequency ratios for business already written - or is it to cover new business that they want to write in the future The answer came back instantly - new business They are becoming known in the industry for having a good design team which can quickly model & package new niche products with low risk - something that the big players often wont offer. So the retail brokers who get non standard insurance requests keep phoning them up. As the network across Europe widens more of these speciality opportunities arise. Its good little earner for the retail brokers and Gable - hence the placing. GLA LM
Technically its the 2014 year end target - but I observe that normally what happens is: current price = YR1 forecast EPS * YR1 forecast PE (because the low forecast PE is reverse engineered from current price). I will call that 'the formula'. That will make you think twice - hee hee ;) What it means is that as the 2013 results approach and are announced 'the formula' flips over to the next yr ie yr2 becomes yr1 - which forces the price up because the higher yr2 EPS comes into play and the low forecast synthetic PE gets replaced with the higher current market PE (higher cos its a growth stock and no longer engineered). So to answer your question - 2013 yr end is 31dec - announcement is generally about 3mths after - so that window between yr end and release is often where the flip take place Well theoretically!!! It can of course wander all over the place along the way - but thats the real challenge ;) Ignore the buys and sell trades - it doesnt matter whos selling to who - if the MMs/order book are buying stock at a higher price its not because someone loves you - they think they can sell it back later at a higher price. The only thing that really counts medium term is an aggressive company expanson plan being executed in the news by strong management in a healthy market. GLA LM
I just had a chat with the investor relations director - a very friendly chap He informed that the placing was kept small so dilution was virtually non existant and that it was massively over subscribed by the institutions. Interesting. It also sounded like business is really galloping along - with more products in the pipeline likely as distributors regularly phone them up and ask if they can create something - so client driven demand Broker has raised to Buy 84p - panmure put them on hold before the placing which means they are pretty straight My own forecast is similar using forward numbers: 2014 EPS (13.19) * 2013 PE (6.5 + 10%) = 94p http://www.stockmarketwire.com/article/4663900/Gable-profits-jump.html GLA LM
Hi CM - hope you are well sir. Im just checking this one out - potential little bit of dipping in near term due to the miss - but that seems to be mostly due to one off items at a quick glance - so better next time round hopefully. Director buying. Havent researched much yet so no expert - could result in a good buying opportunity here. Generally Im still trying to buy dips in strong growth stocks - finding the strong fundamentals is easy - catching the dips is hard because they often only spend 0.1% of the time down there! GBO left themselves quite open with the aggressive accounting and director sells etc - a tad spin cocky and naive to the market sharks perhaps - it will make them stronger, older and wiser in the long run though. Wouldnt be surpised if there are board changes or additions there. Also wanted to say you will be sorely missed over on the GBO board by the core crew - your views highly respected over there - a rare integrity & honesty which made that one of the very best boards going - Thank you ATB & stay lucky LM
Hey Jolly - you in here? Positives: Looks v oversold to me - great fundamentals - at least 50% upside - no shortselling Negatives: News seems to be all about restructuring and rationalisation in readiness for when business picks up. Hints of no major recovery in 2nd half. Diluted EPS has dropped like a stone which is either a typo, a convertable bond or directors deeply into options. Order flow strangled by rail projects on hold /competition. So the only question is when are some of those big tenders going to land as the catalyst for a bounce? Anyone got a sniff of upcoming "major" deals? LM
... over the next year - technical, fundamental forward calcs, US politics, high brkr targets, santa rally all confirm. Dont worry if the rally takes a breather from time to time - its supposed to when it tests or crosses various support and resistance lines - imagine a bottle travelling on sea waves IMHO Just sit tight GLA LM
Technically GAH looks a bit toppy and went a little quiet since the broker downgraded to a hold and they appointed an FD. Unsubstantiated rumours of a shareplacing (pops up occasionally) on another chat board to increase capital adequancy after all the new business. Who knows? Personally I think its just going to consolidate for a bit while they adjust themselves structurally to deal with all this new business. Medium/long term I think its still a runner - the MD still has the expansiion bug and the fundamentals inc forward valuation are still great IMHO. GLA LM
Dont worry - you were just a bit early - impossible to be bang on - look at Williams %R & Commodity Channel Index on a Weekly chart if you are looking for the dips (weve just dipped and still oversold :) GLA LM
Hi Dubzy - some folks buy on the trading update and sell on the results. Always been a bit of that. Results are stellar - some mild concerns on rising capex. Sector wise - Osborne comments about preventing a housing bubble popped a terrific run for the house builders - suspect some fund managers took that as the signal to book profits and rotated out of that sector. AHT affected by proxy even though most its money comes from USA! Concerns about stalling stateside recovery, political high jinks, QE and debt ceiling also weighing. In a nutshell an amazing co but price is taking a breather after a cracking run. Dont worry - its mostly technical - as soon as price softens or becomes oversold everyone will pile in & the march up will continue IMHO. GL LM
Wasn't expecting that! Syria agrees to give back chemicals Iran promises not to build a nuc Fed says no tapering of QE and all on the same day! Looks like some powerful diplomats & behind the scenes negotiators have done a deal. Anyway, it pretty much guarantees that the Sunbelt gravy train for Ashtead will continue now! Result GLA LM
Hi Jolly - well done on finding this one! Great run. These recent revisions upgrades are amongst the best ive seen. Plus forecast PEG of 0.6 implies theres more to come http://www.4-traders.com/SAGENTIA-GROUP-PLC-4008540/revisions/ GLA LM
Charting - just broken resistance and broken up from pennant News - just renewed financing facility at a much lower rate News - "Sagentia anticipates the acquisition of OTM will be earnings enhancing in the current financial year" Brokers - recent steep revisions upwards to price target of of 164p Interims - PBT increased by 49% IMHO This is going higher... GLA LM
Syria talk, little profit taking, greedy traders and algo machines no doubt responsible... 59% increase in pre tax profits - rising earning revisions - expanding sector - several brokers raising targets to around 835 - 28% upside What a great stock! GLA LM