RE: Exciting 2021/22 lies ahead1 Jul 2021 10:35
Pdub
I am glad to talk on this terms with you about BMN and will reply on the matter, accordingly to my limited knowledge, surely much smaller that some of you here...will also try not to be totally negative on BMN.
To start just a point, you say that sp of a company is half the story. Well is a big half trust me....unless someone has fall in love completely with the narrative that often are regurgitated by the many savvy BoDs out there, imo sp is everything...and you believe in the theory of the market been efficient almost 100% in setting a sp, it become a very difficult and often expensive exercise trying to be a contrarian. So excluding that what is left for us investors is to buy and hold with the hope of having made the right decision.
You see Pdub when you talk of achievement, you are talking of the past therefore something that is already in the sp. Nobody give money for something that has already happened. I been able to see what will happen that makes money and with BMN already months ago I personally saw more dangers of failure than success. Not particularly because of the Management of BMN but simply because is a fact...buying another operation in Vanchem is a risk, a near term risk that may become a long term benefit. Sp of companies that take on these kind of risks normally suffer in a risk/reward assessment. More over to purchase another Vanadium processing facility imply the need to increase production, therefore more cash required for expansion...BMN has been unfortunate has all this happened while V prices were declining....indeed V price remain the single most important factor that will decide if is going to be a success or a failure. There are companies out there able to make a profit at many different levels of commodities prices, this is because their operation is well established and tested and they preserve cash. Not so sure what the cash commitment with BMN is, but venturing in to the RFBattery in theory can be another cost and at best distraction not needed right now, unless that manage to make another investment capital gain like with Invinity.
Going forward if I where to asses a valuation for BMN I would start and focus mainly on how much will cost to fully repristinate Vanchem to its full potential (and is not going to be easy) and also how much will cost to increase production to 5/6 mt V.
I suppose depending on V price they can always cut expenditures here and there preserving cash and maybe even making a profit, but this will see full operation developments further down the line and as I said V price is the key here. I am sometime wondering if the BoD thought that by getting involved in RFBattery singlehanded they believed to be able to change the course of Vanadium price and history.....
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