Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Be aware of trolls with ‘apparent’ European connections patronising us and bringing negativity to the bb. In my opinion very suspicious. Don’t get taken in.==============================

Directors and Chariman...lots of them, helping them self to share awards. Would be interesting to know if are converting in cash (selling) or keeping shares.?

I am making a paradox here...
In comparing BMN with England losing at the Euro.
After so much expectation build up from BMN to deliver on so many fronts, investors have realised that there are many moving parts in this beast of operation that in BMN with its business model. Often not everything goes according to plans and now is a matter of rethinking on investment decisions and revaluing BMN prospects going forward, after recent Financial results.
For England is the same. The build up to the final has been in crescendo and having to play at home, one can excuse the true believe that this time results will come good.....finally.
I can only sympathise and feel for all England supporters, to lose on penalties and at home is experiencing sadness and anger at the same time, a very confusing feeling. I confess that at some point (very few short moments) I whished that England would win it.
But if looking at the past is worth something, it is because is an opportunity to learn from it. For BMN the hope is that the management will learn from some business plan execution mistakes, and possibly the same goes for Southgate.
On this note please allow me a little joke, why thinking at the experience Southgate has on penalties, I am not surprise if England lost ????
But here is the positives.
I see BMN and England now with so much potential.....for example wouldn't you bet on England to win the world Cup?
With the potential they have and if they will learn something from this experience, it looks good to me. Think what good odds you would get for England to win the WC right now. The same goes for BMN, after hopefully all the bad news are out and with a sustained V price going forward, its share price is on sale and on the card it looks a great investment.
But for England as for BMN the big question to answer is, will the management learn for past mistakes....

Sotolo likewise....I appreciate and thank you very much, for your honest analyses on HOC.
Technical tells that HOC sp has settled on a strong support level from 2018, beside a blip down to 80p due to covid19 in March 2020. As you say from current level some good news on H1 would help the sp for a recovery, in the other hand I am a bit worry that since June 2020 the sp has gone completely the opposite way to silver price, meaning that something fundamentally serious is happening here.
All in all it looks like the bad news from 2020 have been priced in and the market will wait for H1, no doubt HOC would benefit from a reserve/resource upgrade as it seems they have some 6 years production in Eq. Arg. M/Oz. left.
Also I see some strange items on P&L and Balance sheet, for example amazed by doubling up of financial costs from 2019 to 2020 with borrowing unchanged, and "Net loss on cash flow hedges 37(g) (5,913)"...not sure what it is but is a loss of almost $6 mill. In the other hand if some exception items due to Covid disappear in 2021, profit should be much better.
With all the variables in to play for HOC it seems the market have paused the sp on a technical level more than on fundamentals IMO, some comparison with peers is needed here to asses sp value....not easy to find similar peers around. I might buy some comes Monday with stop loss at 157, to see if sp recovers leading to H1 and beyond. Thanks L

I am coming from THS board where Sotolo and El Prof where taking about HOC INVESTMENT.
I know HCO for years but always reputed a pit pricey, hence never invested here, maybe once in/out can't remember if made any profit but never wanting to hold for any given time frame.
I can see now sp been much lower than recent....but also production.
Had a quick look at financials...and I am aware of the Castillo worries. My question been why much lower production in 2020? Did they sold some asset or is due to Covid19 or else.
I think I read that 2021 forecast production is back to 20219 levels, am I correct?
Many thanks

I don't know man......made a mistake buying at 12.8p. Next time I should have focused on USD/RAND exchange...lol
Pathetic.

I am with you BBN...THANKS,
I did get to a similar result on 2021 possible profits but from another angle.
Indeed many thing can change been still half way trough the year.

On thing not so clear to me is how can the direct cost have risen from $19.1/2020 to $26.5/2021, with a similar production....
If anything during 2020, lock down and pandemic cost should have been higher not lower...

Hi BBN
PL I don't understand the the extra $10 costs where they come from, what they represent.
Pl extrapolate, is it because of the shutdown time, and if so isn't the shut down time already accounted for by reducing production and therefore increasing cost of production?
Also costs associated for refurbishment and production increase aren't they part of Capex (unaccounted in P&L?
Tx

..................
On the downside, the idle plant cost of $4.2m for a c. 21-day shutdown will likely rise given we have had upwards of 42 days this year. Additionally, the stronger ZAR/$ exchange rate will factor into some of these costs for 2021.
If nothing else what all of that says is that the c. $10,000 overhead cost from 2020 is relevant and applicable enough to be employed (for now) in 2021 if BMN goes on to sell the same levels of vanadium this year (3,842mtV).
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So as a starter for 10, when BMN sells 3,842mtV and the ZAR/$ exchange is R14.25, we would have a direct production cost of c. $26.50 per kg + c. $10 per kg = $36.50 per kg ($36,500 per mtV). Worst case scenario.
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Please needs more explanation.

indeed RH very volatile price and dark market forces.....
Still my point on market dynamics and the metal been prime target for strategic storage reserves from some countries, I believe is still valid. I wonder if car manufacturers do store metal for production when price is seen as convenient....?

My other iron ore pellets share (GRR) up 13% yesterday on Directors buying A$200000 shares, gives an idea on the confidence in the sector, and particularly on pellet premium prices. It seems $250/t is becoming a starting point for H2, been averaging for 2 moths now. Fxpo trading at 2.5 forward PE is a cash machine with no debt.

For the last 2 years Q3 has been released on the 9th which would make it for Friday coming?
I see Platinum price stabilising, purely on tech. it made recently few higher lows and seems to settle on a descending channel, would be nice if it breaks above the 50MA blue line for another rally, but also the 200MA green line should provide support.
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_c6036c7827d7e422ebfdcf9af8a4302c.png
Rhodium is much more difficult to predict.
From the graph below on could guess that worst case scenarios $15000/$13000 should hold (red line) that is a channel above Febr. 2020 high, which may become support and also a consolidation price level in Oct. 202. In a more optimist view, it would be interesting if the price holds at 50MA levels (blue line) RSI indicator is approaching oversold. Worst case scenarios is 200MA (yellow line) holding at $8000.
I know some suggest Rh price may go back all the way to $1000/2000 but have a feeling this time will consolidate much higher. Rhodium is a metal that surely is on the radar for strategic metal reserve stockpiling, from may countries. Given recent massive spike, possibly below some levels some countries will start to buy again for the rainy days. Just my assumption.
https://www.investing.com/commodities/rhodium-99.99-futures-streaming-chart
Palladium price is very interesting because it has been on the rise for many years, suggesting the trend may continue. 50MA blue line should hold.....
RSI is not overbought.
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_47b6cc670f649357bfc83990ab8893ed.png

On cost I get $29/Kg, all in excluding depreciation and amortization, this is from 2020 numbers.
But clearly less is the sale more is the costs...so for 2021 is likely to be 2/3 $ higher.
If V price stay this high BMN should be making a profit for 2021 without counting depr/ammort.

...how misleading. No wonder many here have bought at high prices and are now stuck...

I know my figures are approximated, as I said we have an operation in BMN refurbishing and expanding production, that is not so easy to pin down and forecast the outcome. Add to that the price of Vanadium which is tightly traded and kind of monopolized by China decisions...My post was just to make a broad assessment of current BMN price and try to forecast what to expect in the next 12 moths...expanded production won't materialise till END of 22, which is not exactly around the corner. No doubt the market will react if say V price will go to $60/Kg. in a couple of months, if that happens though won't be thanks to VRFB but possibly USA start spending in infrastructures and the need for steel production....we will se what happens. For now though the market price BMN at 12p, you can turn around the numbers has you like ...this is what it is.
I am confused by some investors here that put money in a mining company, with expectation that it will grow like a VRFB company. This in my opinion is complicating things, good luck to you if you manage to compute all the variables involved...If one believe in the VRFB story why not invest in IEA or the like. Personally I still see BMN as a Vanadium mining company and asses it value on this kind of operations, if anything the VRFB could be more detrimental than positive. I posted before, these are extra costs and management resources that BMN doesn't need while going trough refurbishment and expansions ......Very bad decisions.

It's a good job charts are next to useless...==============
Do you mean is going below 11p? lol
Anyhow 10p, 11p, 12p what's the difference?!
Based on my back of a cigarettes pack calc. I get for H1 FeVan sale price of $37.5$/Kg. If it stay at these levels for H2 ($44/Kg.) then 3500t will fetch $142mil rev, take away some $130mil all in costs (without capex) you get a net profit of $12mil for 2021 and a forward PE of 18. Mind you all guess work given the unpredictability of BMN operation and Vanadium price either on the up or down side.
Has I mentioned before I can't see demand from VRFB having a meaningful impact on prices in the immediate future, it is tank to the huge increase in steel production of late, if V and FeVa price have risen recently......Same happened in the 2018/19. Saying that FeVa price may as well end up the year at higher than today levels but again only if more demand comes from the iron ore/steel industry, therefore on BMN sp today 13p and this range imo is what rightly so, the market seems to value this company. On the contrary of what been said before technical and charts here are very important. I see the 200MA line which was before a support, been now a resistance point at 15.74, a bit like in 2019/2020. How low BMN sp can go is anyone guess, one would hope that all the bad news are out......and maybe a sustained V price will stop current descent.

Look guys you can post and say what you like and as much as you like on this company and the V sector.
I (and I am not saying this with sadistic pleasure pl believe me) see only a battery technology that even if should be the best for its scope and purpose, in 20 years, has hardly taken off..I see a share price that when any other share price out there has risen 10 even 20 times pre/post pandemic, this has hardly moved...
On BMN management, if there was a opportunity, a moment when the sp was meant to start rise was at latest financials, Vanadium price on the up, production on the up, cost decreasing, not to mention the VRFB ventures...and yet we are looking at the sp making lower lows. You can turn around any kind of financing arrangement for VRFB projects, residual value, small or no up front investment, but in the end it has to be more economical than other techs, for it to be an outright driving force in battery storage development. Moreover if the Vanadium supply is scarce and V prices go up, how are we going to account for the large upfront capex needed to develop new mines? Yes I know high prices call for new mine developments but is a vicious circle which is keeping the price of V high and limiting its VRFB uptake. China has the power and will to develop some industry even at a loss for various reasons....and possibly of no interest to BMN.

As far as I understand the problem with VRFB is the price of Vanadium. This is something not to be underestimate as VRFB technology has been around for quite a long time, but for some reasons not making it to the main stream implementation.....there must be a reason for it???
2018/19 V price raise was due to shortage of V for the steel iron/steel industry not battery usage.
Is not a secret that V needs a very low price for it wide use in battery storage, so either its price comes down or the price of Lithium goes up to become uneconomical. I am all for VRFB and for my limited understanding of its use and technology definitely think is one of the best material, but this is not enough imo to make it an investment case based on assumptions that there will be VRFB worldwide rollout. At best out of guess work, lots of assumptions and little facts, I would put Vanadium chance of becoming the main stream usage adoption in battery storage, at the same level of Hydrogen and different mix of Lithium. Another point that might have been missed is that the usage of Vanadium in the iron/steel industry is keeping the price of vanadium at certain levels, this could prevent the price to go enough low to become more economical than Lithium?! In the other end if Vanadium production worldwide would dramatical increase the price would go down, but will BMN manage to make a profit?

BenAlder I appreciate your polite way to tell my I am an ignorant on battery tech subject, and to some extent I completely agree with you. Still among all you bla bla bla, I can't read any numbers, data or TANGIBLE information, that backs your assumptions. Beside if you read carefully my post I am making the argument for a slow implementation of VRFB, due to other already developed metal battery techs, excluding Hydrogen.
Moreover you say:
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I imagine most of the other systems you refer to have not got to maturity levels required to arrive on the market in the next 5 – 10 years.
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Not sure what you refer to but it occur to me that other metals storage battery like Lithium is already very well developed, and in use worldwide.
I am not referring to the news that India is taking on the development of aluminium-air battery, or Group14 Technologies producing already silicon-carbon-based anode material for lithium-ion batteries.
And finally I am sure you have a case to make also despite the below news...
https://www.energy-storage.news/news/uks-largest-battery-storage-project-at-320mw-gets-go-ahead-from-government
https://www.rechargenews.com/technology/worlds-first-gw-scale-battery-project-unveiled-in-australia-in-snub-to-gas-fixated-government/2-1-958227
https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/news/frv_and_harmony_begin_construction_of_second_battery_storage_project
No genius here...just a quick search on google, its funny when some people are so biased on a argument, they can't see evidences even if you put them in front of their eyes.
Anyway good luck. bye bey

And here we go again....
I am sorry to do the devil advocate job all the time, will try not to be too specific on BMN.
Instead I like to notice only that a lot of expectation and sentiment, and possibly the reason the majority of BMN investors bought in, is based on potential exponential increase of VRFB development around the world. I have not read a balance debate yet on this board about other battery technologies, some of which are much more advanced and developed that Vanadium base Battery. There are maybe 20 different technologies and approach to make battery, and Lithium for example with a management overheating system is still one of the more popular for car manufacturing but also for energy storage.
This to say that if VRFB will become a major economical factor for Vanadium demand, it will definitely take time. Moreover there is always the conundrum of Vanadium price level for it to be used in a massive amount for VRFB. In the end is likely that battery storage worldwide will take place by a mix of technologies and materials used of it. Who knows it could be that in the end Hydrogen will be the winner take all, in any case it seems to me that mid/short terms is Lithium the real winner, helped also by car manufacturing. To sum up I would suggest investors here to see BMN more as a Ferrovanadium producer in assessing its sp, rather than base most of sp increase hopes on VRFB. If you like to venture on the battery consumption expectations would be helpful to have a detailed view of the current market and technologies used in battery storage, including the rate of increased development of the many different battery technologies and trends out there. Would you be willing to wait 5 years been heavily invested in BMN to eventually see that VRFB is starting to make an impact on V consumption and sp? I am making this post only to balance the expectations on Vanadium for RFB, hope is not viewed as deramping.