Member Info for LuckyLuciano

..and another UT after hours at 415p buy for 481.78k shares.....these are institutions buys imo, smart money coming in.

I suppose all bad news are out.
We had Putin and Europe gas crises de-facto a non event, with Russia declining to increase gas supply, till new long term contracts are agreed.
We had confirmation that is unlikely higher export target from Tga will be met due to Transnet issues, something know already since June and indeed an issue that might find a solution by direct involvement from Coal export companies, with Richard Bay Port security.
We have coal price likely to have found its top but that imo will find a higher range above $150/t due to market dynamics and winter weather.
We had a confirmation that Richard bay fire did not affect Tga operation.
Hence a long term coal price at $150/t put Tga at current market cap below fcf.
I wouldn't be surprise is SA fund recently have bought more Tga shares.
Today many US coal miners are up between 10% and 20% .....

just gone trough at 414.358.....come on for a green finish......

I insist with a long term coal price at $150/t and export sale at 14.5million/t with net profit at 40%.
PE multiple (mid/long term) at 3 and Tga share price at £ 11.60

..is that with today rnd Tga is automatically ruling out issues with Richard bay fire...
Now how much did the sp dropped out of that rumours??
If anything today rns should add some 50p to sp.

very rough calculations.
Average sale price $150/t, Sale/t (revised to lowest) 14.5 million/t, net profit margin 40%, £/$ at 1.38
Net profit £630 millions, current market cap £544millions.
In 2 months Tga will have much more cash than its sp/market cap, on cash alone sp should be £6, on multiple valuation of only PE of 2 at $150/t coal sp should be £9.20

Say no news....price recovering we may end the day in green. Reduced production was already hinted by Ceo at H1 results and from recent web interview. No mention of fire affecting Tga operation is a positive. Also coal export participant are getting together to monitor and improve security at port for the first time, and this could be a game changer for operation going forward. Guidance still maintained and higher from last year. At this coal prices this is a non event.

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/search/port+richard+bay/@-28.8028723,32.0404966,4058m/data=!3m1!1e3
Indeed from map is possible to see in the bay the 2 coal stock deposit, I believe Tga export deposit is on the outside of the bay near bay exit.....
Also Friday Tga sp recovery has to be a confirmation that export has not been affected.....a RNS from the company though should be a must in this circumstances.

I wonders if some comparison can be made between Tga and THS. Both Sa operations both selling a cpmmority that may fase out in 15/20 years. I am looking at price earning of THS and wonder it Tga sp could settle more or less at same valuation level....

Imo Tga sp would have retrace much less if wasn't for 2 events. First yesterday BBC covering a story of China rumping up coal production to 100m/t. Now.... this is an ammount unimaginable to achieve in short to medium terms.... Have no idea why some news like this are cyrculating but surerly are a great way to create volatility and make lots of money for brokers. The other unforseen reason for Tga sp drop was Putin offering to open gas tap for Europe.... This again is another non event that justify a sp drop because if you listen carefully what Putin is saying to the west is that, if you like more gas you have to pay more. This goes in support to high coal prices.... And indeed coal prices ARE still high. So from what started in a small correction in Tga sp due to reaching a anchoring sp level of 500, become a more pronounced down trend based on non events. Its absurt to see a company sp dropping when the price of what it sell is rising, and is understandable that people in this circumstances would come up with all the most desparate theorys, but imo possibly the most simplistic reasons are always the closest to the truth. For the sp going forward, if no more news catalist of any kind will pop up for Tga, it should slowly recover and with coal prices6rrmanibg high, the sp should accelerate near end of year results, or if Tga Bod will release a trading update which can only be a positive beside any kind of expectation from investors. Rigtnow the market has lost sight on Tga Fundamentals and is focusing on short term news flow, these are very emotional reactions hence high volatility

Isaytomato your use of "we" in your post must be either that you suffer from bipolar syndrome, split personality or some other kind of brain issue, me I seggest seen a head doctor.

Just like to point out that while ago when I made the unfortunate decision to sell Tga, for some reason I was put under the Spanish Inquisition by some on here... Now it seem that we can freely talk about sell or trading Tga, seem that all hinibitions have gone. This is very strange.

.. By the way thanks Dabblet1 for the hint.

In my opinion more than having a seller, we have a buyer that whants cheap shares. The fire at PRB and now Tga boss making comments....... It surerly is a coincidence but why the SA fund sold shares and why is now buying back?! On production increased i say... Whatever! At theses coal prices half of last year production would justify current share price.

Last top up from me at 438.
Web site of kzntransport showing which terminal is coal.
http://www.kzntransport.gov.za/public_trans/freight_databank/kzn/ports/Richards_Bay/index_xml.html

Tga has been bucking the main index trend many times, especially with coal prices at this high levels.
Coal prices are rising faster than gas prices, meaning that is still more convenient to use it at this price and/or that gas electricity power generators are at full capacity.

Taxes, the rich get richer and poor get poorer, everyone for them selves, democracy against dictatorships, offshores bank accounts, global warming and the green revolutions, UN and WHO and what about World Trade Organization?
We humans have all figured out, creating the problem for then to find a solution, in this never ending story of madness and bewilderedness.

I too was wondering why to sell and buy back at higher price.......lololo

Indeed no news is good news.

I have a mixed feeling on coal price in that every time I see it rising, some how I whish it didn't happened.
Lets remember that at this price trend level, Tga is making more than its market cap in cash.
Also SA coal imv has reached a price to high for it to be economically competitive with other sources.
Still awaiting rns from the company on RBP fire event, probably they are awaiting due investigation to conclude.....