Member Info for LUCAN

These are not encouraging results. Total revenues down 5.6% in Q3, newspaper advertising down 8.1%, circulation down 5.1%. Online is up significantly, but off a very low base, not nearly enough to matter. Cost reductions of 5.9 % will cover the shortfall, but that cannot go on indefinitely. It is hard to see any sign of Irish consumer recovery in these figures. Things are probably even worse in the other papers. How long before something has to give?

Seems to be some buying recently. Next development due is a rights issue or placing to raise 40 million (over 100% of MCAP). If someone thinks it will be a placing, that might explain the price rise, otherwise why not wait for the rights issue. Phoenix magazine says share is massively undervalued (but they have said that several times before).

Is the dial stuck here? Still showing 7p, 40% upon day, same for the last god knows how long

Can anyone explain why this shows a share price of 7, when all the buys and sells for several months have been between 4 and 6?

Curious stalemate here, very little buying or selling. Under the terms of the recent restructuring, the company is committed to raising Euros 40 million through a share issue, meaning a dilution of something over 100% at current price. Presumably investors are waiting to see the terms. Pensions settlement is also unresolved. Must also be a possibility that Denis O'Brien would seek to take the company private, though that would presumably raise major competition issues.

Six months ago, before the delays to x-sense production, the share price was in region 450-500. If the technical problems have been resolved, it should recover that level fairly soon. If and when the anticipated earnings are delivered, you won't see it for dust.

Took your advice this morning, I'm glad to say.

Thanks, very helpful post 21.06, please keep telling it as you see it

In my opinion it's not really the MMs that are pushing the price down, it's nervous investors. Talk about unresolved quality control problems makes people nervous, and for good reason. 'Moving in the right direction' is better than the opposite, sure, but if the goods are not reliable, it surely puts a big question mark in the outlook. After reading your posts yesterday I sold a third of my holding, at a loss, and frankly I am not sure about the rest.

Useful information. Do you still rate CAR a 'strong buy'?

can anyone explain the drop? outloook seems good, but obviously someone doesn't think so

News reports in Dublin suggest INM is seeking to reduce its bank debt by at least 100 million, through a combination of debt-for-equity swaps by banks, major-shareholder loans and possibly a rights issue, on top of the sale of south african interests. Some contribution to the pension deficit may also be involved. Given that the equity is currently valued around 30 million, there will clearly be shareholder dilution of the order of 4- or 5-to-1, no matter how the cookie crumbles. On the other hand, 20% of something is better than 100% of nothing.

Very odd trading pattern after 1600 today, apparently loads of smallish buys, but I wonder. Anyone know what was going on?

Who is this person? Why should anyone pay him/her any attention?

Remarkable reversal, anyone know what's going on?

Reports in Irish papers say South African holdings are to be sold for equivalent 169 million euro, subject to regulatory and shareholder approval. Not a great deal, but best available, will bring debts down to 300 million-ish. Meanwhile the Australian developments are ominous.

Anyone know what has gone wrong here? Are we expecting disappointing results?

Tipped again, you mean, about the third time. It's his share of the year, two years running. Hope he's right.

This share is up almost 100% since the placing in November, with no news that I can see. Can anyone explain what is driving the demand?

Somebody is whistling in the graveyard here. The logic of buying shares at 5p or 6p depends on a) INM selling SA company north of 150m; b) banks agreeing to write off min. 100m of the 400m+ loans, conditional on c) a rights issue to raise another 100m; d) O'Brien making an offer for the shares, say at 10p, with a view to taking company private. That's a lot of ducks to get in a row; the OReilly camp prob has enough shares to block the take-private if he likes. Alternatively O'B can just let the Board or the banks call in a receiver and negotiate for what he wants.