Member Info for LUCAN

Does anyone know why they are planning to wait to H2 2018 / H1 2019 to carry out the Barryroe drill? I.e. a year or more? It seems a long time to wait, given it is more or less the only game in town. Of course it means another year's salary for all concerned.

The trouble is, there are two major investors, who between them control near enough 50% of the shares. In my opinion they act as a concert party, but I doubt if anyone could prove that. Forcing one of them to reduce his holding won't change the situation, the other will just take up the shares. It's a cute arrangement. Nobody ever said DOB was stupid. I would expect him to run rings around ODCE.

Trading statement was 9 November 7am. There were three significant sales on 8th - 600k once and 466k twice. Seems the statement was not a complete surprise to someone.

There was some hefty buying after the midsummer profit warning. May not have been DD, but no surprise if there was some connection. He can buy if he wishes, which DOB can't without problems. Of course some people might view them as a concert party.

Unfortunately DOB does not need to buy this in, even for half nothing. Suits him well enough as it is, in my opinion.

So you would think, but who knows? More selling today.

Maybe the other chap is in the queue since yesterday. Seems there's not much liquidity.

As you can see now, someone was before you in the queue

In my opinion nothing will happen here, until and unless the Irish Times comes into play. If that should happen - and it may be several years away - we will see what DOB and DD really have in mind. I suspect the game plan is already ready. It won't be plain sailing, obviously, but if the alternative is Armageddon, who knows? Until that happens, if it does, they will just keep piling up the cash. No law against that, is there?

So, nobody was at the AGM?

Still don't understand the UBS RNS. Overall holding seems slightly down (5.84% to 5.75%) if I read it right, but suspect it's not so simple. If you add 5.75% to 30% and 15%, you have a clear majority.

still picking up stock

Unfortunately, if indeed DOB/DD are thinking of a buyout at some stage, then it follows that a buoyant share price is not really in their interest. A buyout at say 150p is only feasible if the share price stays around 100-110p. Looking at it another way, whoever bought the bulk of the shares sold on Thursday/Friday must have paid a lot less than a buyout price. Cash is king, and it pays to be up early.

Interesting piece in (Irish) Sunday Times, says that at current share price, DOB and DD could take INM private for not much more than the cash on the balance sheet.

If revenue at INM (and RTE) is down 7-10%, it seems very likely the same is true at the Examiner Group and I. Times. But these latter do not have the same cash cushion. We could be approaching a meltdown.

Somebody bought 1.3 million shares last night, helping to prop up the price. Now I wonder who might do that? A strategic thinker, for sure, with access to plenty of cash.

1. No dividend until revenue outlook is stable, if ever. 2. No acquisitions unless cash-neutral. Basket cases need not apply.

The annual outcomes would of course be worse if the rate of decline continues, reaching significantly more than 7% by year end. One can see circumstances where net cash generation (25m in 2016) might be close to zero.

Six month figures, total advertising down 7%, circulation also down 7%. On an annual basis, that would cut revenue by about 5 1/2 m (advertising) and 7m (circulation) - a total annual drop of circa 12.5m. That would reduce profit before tax from 41.8m last year to maybe somewhere under 30m. Not a disaster, but the trend is unsettling, with Brexit still to come. It must be much worse for the competition. No wonder the IT shuffled the deckchairs.

12 posts since mid-June, all about CLON. Where were you before that, I wonder?