Rah on Twitter2 Jan 2024 08:13
Always interesting to read thoughts which have been internalised. Thanks for sharing.
#AVCT is simply peerless in its opportunity.
On Boxing Day. Astra Zeneca acquired Gracell for $1.2Bn.
The transaction was all about GC012F. A complex cancer immunotherapy treatment that uses immune cells called T cells which are genetically altered in a lab to enable them in locating in destroying cancer cells more effectively.
From October 2019 to January 2022, 29 heavily pretreated patients (age 27-76) with a median of 5 prior lines therapies (range 2-9) received GC012F.
The results were promising with further clinical studies being conducted to confirm the efficacy of GC012F.
29 patients over 25 months with further efficacy studies being required. $1.2Bn.
That’s over x3 our market cap for a standard P1.
We’ve 40+ patients; over 29 months of data; a remarkable safety profile; proven preCISION works; about to skip P1b and dose one of the world’s most lethal drugs bi-weekly. The technology can be adapted for a myriad of drugs.
There is no reason AVCT would not sell for more than Gracell if it put itself up for sale tomorrow.
Despite this, we enter 2024 with 29 months of data and an SP sitting 9p below where it did c 2.5 years ago before a patient had been dosed.
Management remains as relaxed as it can be. I emailed the chair over the holiday period. He was similarly relaxed.
There is no scramble for funds. There is no panic. There is, we saw from the detailed 40+ Q&A, an ongoing narrative with the regulators which will plot the path of AVA6000 through to regulatory approval. Interestingly, it’s no longer definitely about STS in P2. What does that tell you?
I have zero doubts a deal arrives in Q1.
When that happens, perhaps the market will start to ask what others now see (which shareholders have known for over 12m).
Putting aside the financials, the market has given a slither of credit to the societal impact of chemotherapy with reduced side effects.
A friend of mine was diagnosed with breast cancer a few weeks ago. She’s early 40s. Mother of two. On a dox combo treatment and will require a mastectomy. She’s had cycle 2. He hair has already gone. As have her eyebrows.
She’s got to somehow explain that to her two young daughters over the coming weeks. At some point the market starts to realise the societal importance of improving on this type of situation many people find themselves in on a daily basis.
All the best for 2024.
And for the 7am roulette gamblers: good luck!
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