Member Info for LovableLumax

The need for cash in the coming couple of months is well

Documented. Cash runway likely runs to end of autumn. Anyone claiming that they know where it’s coming from has inside info. I suspect most holders are confident the BoD has a plan and not long to wait.

The auditors will sign the accounts off toward end of April. I am sure the balance sheet will be strengthened before then and I suspect before end of Feb if not sooner.

LLP your assumptions ludicrous. Why would they go for 4 x revenue? If that’s the case then why did we pay what we paid, are they mugs and didn’t they realise they should get ;x revenues?!

I suspect the combined two are worth £40m to £50m and it’ll depend on their margins, pipeline, projected growth etc etc

C7 officially ends when 3 patients have received 2 doses and have had an observation period. They can then continue to receive drug if their oncologist believes it’s benefiting. Continue dosing and continue collecting data and extending lives.

This conference obviously massive. Great if Avacta is able to present 6000 data as cohorts 6 and 7 not yet covered and will add a lot surely.

Where are the manipulation clowns? Sells showing as buys. IRS rigged I tell you.

The question is can they sign more Tier 1 deals before they go cap in hand for more cash. Will tier 1s sign deals with a co with less than a year’s cash. Hope so but the jam tomorrow wearing thin.

2Phevs are you not concerned mirriad has published a Dec trading update for many years and we’re at the back end of Jan and not a peep?

2Phevs are you having trouble reading TR1s? Again, Rathbones an umbrella for a few cos who hold shares on behalf of many nominees (retail).

Torch Nominees Limited St Peter Port Guernsey

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Hero Nominees Limited St Peter Port Guernsey

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Ferlim Nominees Limited London UK

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Rathbone Nominees Limited

Rathbones hold nominee accounts so IIs are not buying.

Having been invested here for many years this is the first time they have not published a Dec trading update. That has got the market nervous. All these linked in posts have been going on for years with little effect on revenue. One would think there will be a cash call soon unless there is a sudden huge uptick in revenues. Hopeully the latter.

Average volume for last 30 days is over 1.6m but usually around 1.5m. Recent converted shares means less than 60k shares need to be sold a day which is 4% of volume and negligible. We will move into a new range one funding confirmed.

For every seller there is a buyer and every buyer a seller. The manipulated market narrative is nonsense. As and when the balance sheet is strengthened either by a raise (I suspect will be sophisticated IIs) or through licensing deals or the like the share price will likely go into a new range. Talk of manipulation lazy and false.

Given the leaks I very much doubt any raise will involve retail. Would put my mortgage on that being the case.

Oncologists wouldn’t recommend their patients go into hospital to receive more drug if they didn’t think it of benefit, so efficacious whether stabilising disease or shrinking tumours.

The 9 patients who continue to take the drug differ as do their oncologists. 9 patients from cohorts 3 (so nearly 12 months of treatment), 4, 5 and 6. Assuming it is just 1 patient from cohort 3 on drug that means that 8 patients from 3 cohorts continue to take drug which is impressive. It seems the higher doses the more an oncologist recommends the patient continues to take drug or indeed is able to continue taking drug. Overall (cohorts 1-6) 1 in 4 so 25% continue to take the drug as they are benefiting or in cohorts 4, 5 and 6 it is likely as high as 50%. Remember these are heavily treated patients and were at the end of the line. Hopefully these patients continue to receive drug as their disease stabilised and the safety profile means they are able to take and have few side effects. Remember dox can only be given over 4 and a half months or 6 cycles max and after that most patients disease progresses. Giving more cycles as 6000 has been doing is extending lives.

Cohorts 6 and 7 should be interesting to say the least.

Surely thorn is short then as why post so much without a financial interest. Really odd otherwise.

Likely around 60k a day. The share price has tended to decrease before conversion and increase after.

Launch cost £24m plus up to £13m (max) earn out, and Coris £7.4m plus (max) £3m, say total £48m, plus costs, say ~£55m. Outstanding bond £40.8m (as at 23 Oct 2023) – probably a bit less after tomorrow?

LLP you don’t add an earn out to acquisition cost as that’s based on profit so it’s paid for (and some).

Nonsense hurst. Sells above mid price.

From advfn-

A reminder -

From JT on LSE.

Here is a transcript of what Dr. Tap said at the science day about standard dox and what Dr. Coughlin said last week about ava6k.

(thanks to BMH on X for posting the videos -

https://twitter.com/BMHLTD/status/1736326494035603668

Dr. Tap: "[For standard dox], most likely we don't see remissions, remission means that we see the tumour melting away. We can often see responses, but meaningful responses are only in 15-20% of patients. I'd love to see that increase. That can help with palliation, that can help with surgical conversion. But sarcoma is really a disease that we need to continue to treat. So having a drug that we can use for a long periods of time is what then translates into improved overall outcomes, like overall survival. And this also comes into the quality of life aspect where if you are giving a patient a drug that is not affecting their quality of life for the long term. That becomes really important."

"[For standard dox] median progression free survival (PFS) in a first line setting is 6 months and overall survival is 19 months and the overall response rate is 18%. I highlight this because sarcomas are diseases that don't always shrink when we treat them. So I don't always look at the RECIST response rate [how much tumours have shrunk], we look for stability, [stopping them from growing] and that's what is meaningful for patients. So we need to think about that when we interpret data. But I also want to point out the median number of cycles was just 4.5 months, which is hitting that limit of 6 [allowed] cycles. And median PFS is only just a few months after that. Why? Because when you stop the drug [dox] patients progress. That is one of the major limitations of doxorubicin, that we can only give it for 6 cycles."

Dr. Coughlin last week:

Dox is limited to 6 cycles (or 18 weeks, 4.5 months) and that is because of the cumulative toxicity. So the benefit that we have here with ava6k is not just that we are shrinking tumours but those tumours are shrinking and staying in that shrinkage, we're stabilising the disease for a prolonged period of time that just can't be achieved with dox. And that's right there with that favourable safety profile. So the patients have strong disease stabilisation, responses that last for time, and they are not experiencing the really problematic toxicities that are associated with dox."

It's almost as if Avacta have cracked it..

Either way easily absorbed and not a down day so all good