Member Info for LovableLumax

6 patients in 3 weekly were still receiving 6000 in March and had experienced varying degrees of tumour shrinkage. We are 5 months later so so they could have had more cycles so hopefully even more tumour shrinkage. 2 weekly is really exciting as being very selective in patient population. Autumn surely transformational. We know the platform is working as planned (as biopsies showed over 18 months ago) and now to show dox is behaving like dox and we should show unequivocal signs of effiacy (on tumours receptive to dox and naive). Then the platform illustrating the power and breadth of the platform.

CC said 6 weeks or so ago the 4 H2 objectives are on track. We will get 3 weekly and 2 weekly read out; pipeline update; expansion starting and a science day.

Given we know they are not looking for a MTD they could well have stopped at cohort 3 in 2 weekly. Ideally you want to avoid releasing any news in August. Stopping at C3 isn’t material and doesn’t need to be subject to an RNS. Come 5th Sept cohort 1 will have its 3rd scan and a week later cohort 2 will have its second. I guess we will have data read out 3rd week in Sept. A complete guess! I also reckon it’ll be blockbuster and the pipeline will probably follow. If it’s as good as we hope (holders!) there will be options aplenty. Given we had cohort 1’s second scan and cohort 2 first before July conversion due I suspect they were very good indeed which likely made their decision re cash payment.

Happy to remain in the 60s before a blockbuster Sept and autumn.

I suspect they want more data (efficacy) and if 2 weekly is as good as hoped (on naive tumours receptive to dox) we could see some serious moves. I wouldn’t want a deal signed before that data is published as if amazing there will be huge optionality. We also had several patients still on drug from 3 weekly so could have some more efficacy there.

Thanks to Jive Turkey -

https://x.com/jivetur88775834/status/1822978969634816094?s=46

Jive also mentions how tricky and more expensive ADCs are to manufacture. We know Avacta has always said its competitive advantage re the platforms are the specificity which enables exquisite targeting which is why it is not cleaved by similar enzymes. The below shows how amazing the AVA6000 biopsy data are.

Tumor to blood ratios of the chemotoxic warhead at 24 hours:

T-DM1 (ADC): 3:1

Adcetris (ADC): 4:1

Padcev (ADC): 4:1

Trodelvy (ADC): 3:1

Mirvetuximab soravtansine (ADC): 3:1

ava6k (PDC): 100:1

"These ratios are critical for the efficacy and reduced systemic toxicity."

#AVCT

MMs selling shares below mid. Much better to have sells showing as buys.

And as Phevs said they will likely continue until programmatic ready. Until there are material RNSs and revenue forecasts these LinkedIn posts will continue to be irrelevant or immaterial and revenues will stagnate and cash consumption will continue.

So no uptick in revenues regardless of LinkedIn. I suspect no uptick in revenues until Q4 next year all the while costs of £1m a month. At least the CEO is getting £500k a year.

There were dozens and dozens of LinkedIn posts last year and every year prior on Mirriad's partners both supply and demand side but very few RNSs as the campaigns do not contribute material revenues which is demonstrated in the stagnating revenues. In actual fact it's a concern Mirriad is working on more campaigns yet its revenues fall which indicates they are being paid less per campaign. As the Allenby note pointed out as well as the CEO and many others until programmatic fully rolled out revenues will not accelerate. The partner sales teams will not go to work until programmatic is ready and we have not been given a timeline as to when this will take place they are reliant on 3rd parties. The CEO in May was dishonest with investors and the broker who thought programmatic would be ready in weeks and then he confesses at the end of June it won't be and they have no idea when it will be due to 3rd parties.

Bentely applauding Phevs' 'research' when Phevs didn't see a raise coming, called it mates rates when we sit over 50% below it and Phevs who thinks we will hit £3.6m in H2 when that was optimistic and reliant on programmatic. The clown and others don't even have a basic understanding of accounts and realise Mirriad's costs are some £1m a month and they are going to burn a shed load of the cash (£10m after raise in early May) before year end and will have the begging bowl doing the rounds soon enough. The share price will go one way until programmatic rolled out. Just over 12 months ago 1m shares cost £30,000, today £6,000 and I reckon come the raise early next year £2,000 tops as the auditor will want cash and institutions will want their pound of flesh. Of course carry on buying and catch the falling knife.

* If programmatic delayed until say mid next year they will likely be looking at £4m revenue next year (to tie in with this year’ guidance when they thought programmatic would be ready) and a lot less this year.

To a degree you have a point as you would have done 12 months ago when many took part in the 3p raise. We need 400% to get to that and that’s a year ago. So I buy 1m shares in that raise for £30,000 and now I could buy the same number for £6,000. If programmatic delayed until say mid next year they will likely be looking at £4m revenue (to tie in with this year when they thought programmatic would be ready) so a shed load of shares will be needed early next year and my bet is spending £6,000 on shares today will cost less than half that in 6 months. Remember mirriad won’t have booked future revenues for the auditor to say look we have this guaranteed in Q4 as they don’t have the visibility so will need more than £6m and a discount we’re talking a lot cheap shares.

I agree though once programmatic is fully rolled out it should go crazy. A question someone in the game asked is although buying will be automated they’ll still manually need to fit the logo or whatever onto the image and if it’s moving it takes a little time. That can’t be automated at the mo so another lagging effect.

The * are my comments on Phevs' posts.

Some of 2Phevs' comments just before the raise -

Might not need to know how much cash with maybe a equity stake from Samsung

This guy who heads up Samsungs equity investment in deep tech just liked Stephans "Upfronts" linkedin post....never seen him before and believe me I research every like on key execs likes from Mirriad

https://www.linkedin.com/in/ccgressum?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=android_app

Now that would be a serious RNS

*Samsung didn't take part in the raise

Yep LOTM especially if they use confidetial invoice financing that can release up to 90% value of booked work and again Stephan had a like from a specialist provider of this type a few weeks ago which I posted here

*The above the funniest of the lot given MIRI on average invoiced £150k a month and had costs of a little less than £1m a month and the joker thought invoice financing on sod all revenue could ensure they avoid a raise I mean it's beyond idiotic

Agreed LOTM

perhaps you could send an email to IR as a little nudge once they've completed their current $25 mill revenue per US Major programmatic mission.

I've found Tom very helpful in the past GL

*The above more fantasy, look at the guidance for next year which will be missed and the joker posted the above.

All I can add on the cash runway LOTM is if they carried on the same (they had a lot of expenses last year that they haven't had so far) they'd be good until October, however IMO the 4 fold increase in product placement and the increase in US market from 8% to 40% has got to take that out to Jan next year, The HUGE caveat being if programmatic scales rapidly Mirriad could go to CF positive within months.

*He posted the above just 2 months ago and people take him seriously? James or 2phevs has a handful of contacts on LinkedIn so his nonsense re being involved in a US listed co more BS.

What a laugh M&G.....can't believe people give these companies their pensions to manage....Rathbones obviously got their researchers on the ball perhaps we'll get a bullish comment from Petro now

*That was when the share price was 2.3p and M&G like me knew a raise was coming so was selling yet 2Phevs thought he knew best

Over many weeks 2phevs said the board and broker conspired to ensure their associates got mates rates and the clown (with his handful of contacts) posted to the broker on LinkedIn accusing them. I mean what a moron and now we need nearly 100% uplift to get to his mates rates and some 300% to get to last year's raise.

This today -

Yeah Bentley especially if they hit guidance for this year would equate to £3.6 mill H2 turnover which would cover the £600k (as per Mirriads guidance cash burn) a month costs.

* A glance at the accounts tells you their costs have been over £1m/month but that's forecast to reduce this year to £965,500/month. They will likely still burn/consume £859k/mon

*was reliant on programmatic which THEY expected AT THE TIME OF THE NOTE'S PUBLICATION to roll out fully in June

it's quite ironic that bentley complained about some posting without research (me) and congratulating phevs who is the most financially illiterate mug there is. also bentley spent £6,000 on 1m shares and posted - that’s not the case the cash burn relates to the costs the company incurs without revenue.

now imagine investing money and not even having a basic grasp. mirriad aimed to reduce it's cash burn (consumption) to £600k a month but that was reliant on small cost savings but more significantly an uptick in revenues. they've slightly reduced their cost base but h1 revenues fell. allenby has their costs this year at £11.586m so to ere on the side of caution let's say £1m cost a month (it's really £965,500) and we know according to their note the £4m revenue guidance was reliant on programmatic which is expected to roll out fully in june so let's be optimistic and say they will do 4 times h1 revenue so £2m they will still burn or consume £4m in h2 and of course they will have burnt cash in may and june so will be going into next year with less than £5m which is some 20% less than they had this year and we know revenues are weighted to q4 so one assumes they will be looking to raise money very early next year or indeed at the end of this year.

the fact the ceo didn't even bull**** and say we have been liaising with our patners and they believe we can launch in q4 says to me programmatic will not roll out next year and indeed revenues will not kick in until h2 at best.

Wow, have just looked up the Allenby note and my memory served me well. Loss on £4m revenue projected £7.586m so costs of £11.586m. In the note they reference programmatic more than anything else. All the accelerated revenues are expected and that was on the assumption it would be rolled out in June. The fact it’s been delayed means little accelerated revenues as the deals rely on that and the partners sales team will only start once programmatic ready and of course the Triplelift deal relies on that too. An optimistic £4m guide will be missed by a long shot and it sounded end of June like mirriad has no control over when it’ll be ready due to 3rd parties.

And the Allenby (paid for house broker) note was before programmatic delayed so the £4m will clearly be missed and by a long shot. H1 a guide.

Look at the Allenby note that is forward looking and these notes are always missed. They say £4m revenue and over £7.5m loss so still have costs of nearly £1m a month albeit reduced a little from last year. My bet is they miss guidance as they always have and the optimistic £7.5m loss will be £9m.

The delay in programmatic a real issue.

No research? Bentley I don’t post rampy immaterial guff from LinkedIn. Are you not concerned that more and more partners and campaigns have not meant more revenues and in fact the revenue per campiaign has fallen significantly? You got and phevs are either financially illiterate or trying to mislead. Costs and cash burn very different beasts. When looking at the accounts it’s clear that mirriad means net cash burn. Phevs is massively underwater so is ramping. Mirriad will be very lucky to have £5m cash at year end which will be over £1m less than his year. The question isn’t will they raise but when.

i mean when people talk about aim mug punters there is nowhere more demonstrative than here. phevs now saying mirriad will break even in h2 which is hilarious. even the optimistic stephan/mirriad and their broker hasn’t suggested this but hope to at some undefined point next year.

a look at the optimistic broker note tells you phevs should be ignored. the optimistic £600k/month cash burn includes their revenues. i mean just look at their projected costs, revenues and losses ffs. i’ll break it down if their costs were only £600k a month (your framing of cash burn) that’s £7.2m a year and with guided revenues of £4m they would only lose £3.2m or £267k a month. the broker note suggests they will lose (if memory serves) £7.5m and with £4m turnover means costs of £11.5m (down from £12.2m the year before). the financially illiterate shouldn’t be investing, i guess if they didn’t many lifestyle ceos would be ****ed! i reckon turnover will be £2 to £2.5m so they’ll lose £9.5m or around £800k a month net cash burn. come year end less than £5m cash and a raise inevitable as they need sign offf like this year and my bet is they learn and raise earlier to avoid such a large discount as iis want their pound of flesh.

Yep so it’ll really help in choosing the expansion tumour types.

Bella looking at the medium and high FAP tumours on the graph I'm not sure it's necessary. Quite something how specific preCISION is that there wasn't a lot of difference in the high and mid tumour targeting.