RE: Major shareholders20 Apr 2025 12:02
Morning Laura2022 & Happy Easter to you ........
I know there's been news since but I'd strong;y suggest taking a bit of time to go over all the info in the Investment Case Document https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=42041562 post number 4100
It is really difficult to answer the funding question when the company refuses to put out trading updates, doesn't RNS news that is worth of a USA press release twice now etc, giving us such limited visibility.
When they raised cash last year that was meant to see them through to break-even on a month to month basis later this year. Now 2024 didn't go to plan at all & if you look back at the forward projections for 2025 there plan had £2.5M of wiggle room at that time. All of that has gone for sure & I think they've cut costs more dramatically than they would have liked to have done, to try & reach that break-even goal without further funding.
Will they achieve that I honestly don't know, the next month is really crucial for them, if the big Multinational Brands go into "Newfonts" & "Upfronts" determined to spend serious money on VPP over the next year, then Mirriad will do very well. Remember they missed out on 1 contract of between "$20-40M last year (enough with there gross margin to cover 30-60% of there annual cash-burn of £8M to put it in context) due to a content clearance issue, which I'm sure wont happen this time round.
Personally I'm expecting at least 4 decent sized agreements to occur, I've no idea if we'll be taking the same sort of size, or bigger or smaller than last year. I expect P&G & GM to have then with both WBD & Paramount & I'd be looking for $5-10M each minimum.
I think they'll be quite a few contracts with Group Black companies as well but on a smaller scale.
On the cash raise, £4.8M at the end of Dec 2024, cash burn of £8M for the year with zero revenue, leaves a shortfall of £3.2M to get to the end of 2025. Germany provided roughly £0.4M in cash in 2024, until the recent Ad Alliance move to PrimeTime VPP slots, I was looking for £0.6M from there this year, that should probably be £1M now & to stay conservative.
That leaves you £2.2M to find from the USA, we saw during "Growthfronts" a lot of scene's that we hadn't seen before, so they likely had a reasonable 1st quarter compared to last year, so if we said £0.3M
The cash runway with no revenue went to 7th August, so every bit of cash that comes in just extends that date outwards but there is a 3 month delay in revenue turning into cash to account for as well.
I already think the cash runway extends into early September, but yes they may need a fund raise while everything is coming together, but I don't see any need for it to be over £1M in the short term while the Programmatic Solution rolls out & yes they might need a second small raise later in the year, but by then I would hope they had proved there business plan is viable & the shares priced accordingly.
to continue ....
L