Member Info for LordWM

I can't help thinking that interest/excitement will build in the lead up to the court case in the autumn (assuming there's not other good news before then which could only be a settlement or commercial contract win). I can't think there will be bad news because we're fully funded to 2025. So I've added this morning in the hope I can trade leading up to the court case. I'm definitely keeping my initial holding long term though.

Poleaxe. I didn’t know about this move to small cap, was this announced? Do you have any info please?

Awesome, thanks.

Hi all, I suspect some of you have read this article from Dec 2019. Is this Samsung violating Nanoco's IP, claiming they solved this problem themselves, or is this something unrelated to the Nanoco vs Samsung legal action?
hTTps://physicsworld.com/a/quantum-dot-leds-go-cadmium-free/

I also think there's massive potential for a big award.
The only risk I see is that Nanoco lose at trial. I'm not a legal expert, but you surely don't get Nanoco and their legal partners deciding to take on Samsung without a high degree of confience. The PTAB strengthens things further. Nanoco seem like they're itching to get to court...
Any other factor involves upside (winning at trial, settlement out of court, commercial order).
That upside has to be at least 50% over the current share price (IMO), but potentially a huge amount more - 10x plus.
The risk/reward potential is very exciting, and the timescales are 3-4 months, possibly much less (if settlement or commercial order).
What other stocks give you a high degree of confidence of making 50% in 4 months and possibly a life changing return?
I'm long on this one.

Re settlment negotiations, the first thing to note is that Nanoco would never want to delay the court date because it puts pressure on Samsung, and any delay weakens Nanoco's cash position (assuming they don't announce a commercial deal in H2, which may well happen).
This would be a complex negotiation, both arguing different models to settle, looking at global sales, future awards, Samsung supplying displays to other OEMs, Nanoco's legal fees, loads of lawyers involved.
If Samsung wanted to settle before the court date, it's likely they'd be talking right now and we'd never know.
I guess a sign to look out for is for Director interviews. BT wouldn't want to talk on camera like he has done in the past if they were actively in discussions with Samsung, because he may be asked about it (elephant in the room) and he wouldn't be able to say, so would want to avoid this situation.
If he did do an interview soon to update interested parties, I'd take that as a sign that we're likely going to court/no discussions with Samsung.
This is just IMO, interested in other views.

No way, this would be confidential. The first we'd hear about it is an RNS (or a spiking share price if there's a leak).

I can't help thinking they infringed and knew it. It was deliberate. They looked at Nanoco's size and financial strength and calculated that they could use the (infringed) IP for years, and that if it ever got to court they'd just settle.
If you look at the video interviews and results broadcasts, they say they were bewildered and shocked that their relationship was terminated after years of collaboration, only for them to launch the product they'd collaborated on within a year.
It looks like cynical strong arming, can't think that won't be recognised and punished if it gets to court.

I'm not trying to talk down the potential, just pointing out that even if we got to court, there's 50% upside in the share price as an absulute worst case IMO, but potentially 10-20x plus in the medium term.
The court date is set, we have enough cash.The ONLY risk IMO is that we don't win in court. I think we're likely to win.

It's clear that Samsungs strategy was to bleed Nanoco of cash by delaying and hoping they'd not have the funds to continue. the board have done an amazing job of cutting costs, creating the potential of commercial deals and the fund raise makes them viable into 2025.

Assuming Nanoco have a strong case/would win in court, it's still super compelling even if we look at the worst case.

If we settle before Sept with a deal for global past sales and agreement for future sales which Nanoco have said they'd need to settle (assume 10m future sales annually which is low and a 6x multiple for future sales which is also low), with a modest £10 GBP per display sold (42m), with 40% of the total going in legel fees (unlikely to be this much), my model shows a share price of £2.64.

If we go to court and win for US sales only, with an award of £10 GBP per display sold (14m in teh US which is conservative) and a 1.5x wilful infringement multiplier, and no award for future US TV sales or anything past or future globally, and 40% going in legal fees, my model shows a share price of £0.68. This is absolute worst case (assuming Nanoco have a case which I suspect is likely bearing in mind the legel work that's gone in and the risk being taken by the legal partner). If this happened Samsung would then apeal so no immediate cash for Nanoco I suspect, but Nanoco would likely take action globally (injunctions in Europe which hurts Samsung) and also for future sales in the US, making a settlement even more likely.
Their medium term cash runway is strong, we have the potential of commercial contracts being announced.
The main question i think we should ask is do they have a case. If so we're looking at upside, potentially massive upside.

Thanks for all the discussion, was my first post.
It all seems too compelling, the challenge is to stop myself betting the farm in this!
I hope it turns out to be what we think it is. If Nanoco deliver I’ll probably be thrown out of the next AGM for trying to hug the CEO!

Good point Sammy.
Plus, they've been optimistic in the past about impending commercial contracts, but it actually feels that it's close now based on the tone of their comms.

I've done a little Excel work over lunch (I’m an amateur so forgive me).

If we use very pessimistic assumptions (all currency in £s)
- £10 per TV licence fee (hopefully v. pessimistic)
- 14m TVs sold in the US to date (I think it's a little more)
- 28m TVs sold globally (1/3 US, 2/3 ROWorld)
- 10m annual TV sales globally moving forward
- No wilful infringement award as it’s a settlement
- Assume 30% of settlement in legal fees (again, Nanoco may insist on costs)
- 322,445,744 ordinary shares in issue

For a settlement (global sales but no wilful infringement multiplier):
- £10 per TV licence fee x 42M TVs sold - £420m
- Less 30% legal fees - £126m
- Nanoco Balance £294m
- Divided by 322,455,744 shares
= £0.91 per share net

Ongoing Licence fees
- £10 per TV licence x 10m annual TV sales = £100m annually
- Very pessimistic multiplier of 4x = £400m
- Divided by 322,455,744 shares
= £1.24 per share

Added together = £2.15 per share

If it gets to court the numbers will eventually be much higher, but will focus on US historical and future sales only. Nanoco will then have to take action in ROWorld. If Samsung lose in court in the US, surely they’ll settle immediately and not face further global challenges.
All of this makes me think that, if they are facing a pasting in Texas, Samsung will settle before September.

BTW, if I increase the Licence to from £10 to £15 per TV sold the figure changes to £3.23/share..
If we then increase the annual multiplier from 4x to 6x it changes to £4.16/share..
I could go on.

This assumes no further development with other commercial contracts….

Any (polite) critique of this is welcome.

I'd be very happy with this. Plus hopefully more from other commercial contracts in H2-22 should they get across the line.

Hi Sammy,
I'm just wondering, if the settlement happens, and Nanoco get compensation for global sales plus a licence agreement going forwards to teh end of the patents (and assuming no further commercial deals), where do people think the share price will be?
I guess settlement will likely happen before the trial, otherwise any settlement will likely be larger for Nanoco.
So where might the SP be at the year end?

Hi all, thanks for all of the opinions and content on this board, what a great community.
I guess it could be volatile leading up to the court case/potential settlement, could drift slightly then likely ramp up as we approach September.
Assuming we go to court, win a decent award and Samsung immediately start an appeal, does anyone have a forecast of where the share price will be towards the end of the year.
I know there are many variables, but assume we win the case and get a mid range award and 1.5x willful infringement uplift, and let's set aside further commercial contracts/orders, which would just be further upside.
Any guesses re the price.
I've folowed Nanoco for a few years, am pretty long and holding, with an averate of .27 including recent additions.
Thanks.