Member Info for LordWM

Sorry, I obs meant 61.5%. The calcs are still correct, just made a typo error and then went cut/paste crazy.

Sorry for the repetition at the bottom of that one.

Crow2 - I'm not trying to de-ramp here, but if you intend to take up the tender why not sell 100% today at 21p.

Here are a couple of illustrations based on the sale price:

100% of your shares @ 21p = 38.5% @ 24p + 41.5% @ 19.122p

Or if you can sell for 21.5p over the next couple days:

100% of your shares @ 21.5p = 38.5% @ 24p + 41.5% @ 19.935p

Or if you can sell for 21.75p over the next couple days:

100% of your shares @ 21p = 38.5% @ 24p + 41.5% @ 20.3415p

This way, you're sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy back in if the price drops post tender.

There’s currently about net £56m in cash in the business (after debt repayment) with 324,430,950 shares in issue, and a market cap of £68,950,000. That’s 17.26p per share for cash plus £12,950,000 for the business (4p per share).

Post tender and buy back, there should be around 212,000,000 (approx.) shares in issue, and £23m in cash in the business, which is 11p per share. Assume the same £13m ish value for the business that’s another 6p per share, so 17p total.

The main risk is if the share price rises immediately post tender, but assuming there are no further announcements, is that likely to happen? My feeling is it will be somewhere between 11p and 20p, can’t see it being higher (without further news).

Or if you can sell for 21.5p over the next couple days:

100% of your shares @ 21.5p = 38.5% @ 24p + 41.5% @ 19.935p

Or if you can sell for 21.75p over the next couple days:

100% of your shares @ 21p = 38.5% @ 24p + 41.5% @ 20.3415p

This way, you're sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy back in if the price drops post tender.

Revolting, I sold on Friday, hoping to buy back in after. See my previous post for justification.

Trouble, when the SP was close to 16p with £30-40m being returned, that was a no brainer for me and I was buying (shame it was at the lower end and not a dividend).

I struggle to see the SP holding up after the tender unless there's more deal news (may be wrong of course).

This way I have cash ready to go if it drops below 20p (because I still believe).

Maybe high risk, but I don't think (hope) so. I sold out at just over 21p.

If the post tender price drops below 20p I'll be able to buy back for less and be better off (38.5% at 24p + 61.5% at 20p = similar to 100% at 21.1p ish now).

The risk of the price dropping into the teens post tender isn't nice, either way I don't like the uncertainty.

Good luck to everyone, I still very much believe in this medium term and hope to see you all again.

Bit of a brain dump having listened to the analyst call.

It's good to see some media coverage, Sky News and articles, and the analyst presentation sounds the most upbeat I can remember. They talk of further work packages this year, called out the benefits of CFQDs and the IP moat well, and mentioned mass adoption in mobiles in 2026 more than once. They're clearly working to develop a strong ongoing pipeline of new and better materials and mention that they'll apply for further patents around them.

But I still find it very difficult to see the share price going above 24p post tender offer, unless they have news in the pipeline or have an indication that major shareholders will buy more when the share capital is reduced to prop up/drive the SP. This leaves the lowly PI in a difficult position, and presents risk either way.

I was buying to average down as low as 15.69 late last year, and my average is now 27.5p. I've need invested for years and would have much preferred a divident because it levels the playing field between large and small investors.

My calcs suggest cash value of 12p after the buy back and there will clearly be some value added to for teh business on top of this, the recent 'media blitz' seems like a campaign to prop the SP up post tender. But on the call, the questions seemed to come from te hhouse brokers, I didn;t hear any big names on the call, but that doesn't mean big institutions aren't starting to look at this.

At the moment I'm thinking I'll take up the tender offer to bring down my holding and see what happens. I'll likely wait until next week though to see if anything happens before, possibly after the Investor call on Tues.

Bottom of this page, click 'Watch' https://www.nanocotechnologies.com/investors/results-centre/

It’s difficult to find but the analyst call was is there https://stream.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/65e897af3daa0a7143649cac/6604a50469e11fcf8fc17a20

What great results, an increased dividend that looks underwritten for years. As interest rates come down this won’t be a 10% plus yield stock for long.

18 month high today. We have a few drivers behind us, particularly the move to the main market which could drive more institutional interest and inclusion on indexes.

It's a tricky one.

At the moment the business is valued at little more than cash.

The cash value post tender offer and buy back will be £0.12 per share (£23m in cash, divided by 192,007,639 shares = 11.98 PPS)

How much will be added for the business is the question?

And with interest rates more likely to fall in the short term, hopefully conditions will be more optimal for the finance package. Fingers crossed we see an agreement made in the next few weeks so that we can get building! As we get into operational execution with a more firm timeline to production and first revenue, we should see a significant re-rating.

Good luck all.

What a lovely breakout. This has a lot more to go in the medium term.

Good luck all.

Doesn’t make that much difference. But either way I can’t see this not tanking post return.

People love to hate this company and it’s been mostly valued at cash, so what will make the price move? The market may start to price in more value for the business, but I can’t see it rising much until we have concrete order news?

So I see it as a good opportunity to take money off the table, and maybe buy back in for less.

What do people think?

Couple beer mat calculations:

- Shares in issue is 324,418,728.

- 38.5% of shares in buyback = 124,901,201

- 90 of these will be cancelled, (10% held in treasury for employee options) = 112,411,089 shares cancelled

- Leaving 212,007,639 shares in issue

- Less £3m of buyback shares (Turner Pope assume at tender price of 24p, meaning 8,268,298 shares cancelled, but 15p probably more realistic/optimistic, which would be 20,000,000 shares cancelled.

- Therefore (assuming buyback price ave of 15p) final shares in issue = 192,007,639

- Nanoco will have £23m in cash, divided by 192,007,639 shares = 11.98 PPS.

- 12 pence per share if valued at cash.

- Turner Pope think they’ll make £30-40m rev in the medium terms (£35m in assume 3 years), with EBITDA 35-45% margin (assume 40%), so £35m Revenue £14m EBITDA.

- Products will be long-term embedded in supply chains and adoption in other products will likely grow significantly, so is a 10x valuation realistic?

- 192,007,639 shares in issue, £14m EBITDA (in 2027)

- 5x valuation is £0.34PPS

- 8x valuation is £0.55PPS

- 10x valuation is £0.69PPS

A good uplift but not too exciting, what do people think of the calcs?

Unless I'm wrong, I think we have time to wait until after the half year results on 27th March before decising on the tender offer? There may be a further trading update at that point, which could help us decide.

Thanks Svend, hopefully a good year for Atalaya, copper going up, costs coming down, production volumes increasing, plus joining larger indexes.

There’s a lot to like.

We're flirting with the 12 month high of 372p. Are there any chartists who could give any predictions if we break through?

Watch this, 6 mins onwards. Def one to hold.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNXENV0ljCw