Member Info for LordWM

Early next year this should take off. SInce listing they've changed startegy to focus on CAN (makes a lot of sense), and have been designing the first large scale green CAN manufacturing plant (never been done), they've signed an offtake agreement and are working to get the best finance commercials.

Their share of each projects profit (CAN sales and Carbon Credits) will be huge.

This will be a multiple of the current SP in 2-3 years, and will start rerating in Q1 next year, if not before.

OK, so the carbon credits are significant. In addition to the below, at todays price of £53.51 per Carbon Credit:

Carbon Credits

EU Carbon Credit Price (ton) € € 63.70

€ to £ Exchange Rate 0.84

EU Carbon Credit Price (ton) £ £53.51

Villeta

Capacity (MW) 145

Green CAN p/a (ton) 250,000

Displaced CO2 (ton) 500,000

Carbon Credits (p/a) 500,000

Annual £ £26,754,000

Yguazu

Capacity (MW) 300

Green CAN p/a (ton) 517,241

Displaced CO2 (ton) 1,034,483

Carbon Credits (p/a) 1,034,483

Annual £ £55,353,103

Costa Rica

Capacity (MW) 120

Green CAN p/a (ton) 206,897

Displaced CO2 (ton) 413,793

Carbon Credits (p/a) 413,793

Annual £ £22,141,241

TOTAL Annual £ £104,248,345

I don’t really understand the carbon credits, was just looking at numbers for the core green CAN manufacturing business. The potential upside from today’s price seems insanely large.

Let’s see how the FID goes.

No, not including Carbon Credit Sales.

Here are figures at 50% earnings (assume shared 50% at project level with equity finance partner), with 25% and 50% equity dilution - very very unlikely/pessimistic IMO:

Assume 25% Equity Dilution

Shares in Issue 44,923,186

Equity Dilution 25%

New Shares in Issue 56,153,983

Earnings Multiplier 7

Exchange Rate 1.4

Todays SP £0.83

For Villeta only:

Earnings 2027 $ $35,000,000

Earnings 2027 £ £25,000,000

Est.Share Price £3.12

% of todays SP 375%

For Group/all projects:

Earnings 2030 $ $115,000,000

Earnings 2030 £ £82,142,857

Est.Share Price £10.24

% of todays SP 1234%

Assume 50% Equity Dilution

Shares in Issue 44,923,186

Equity Dilution 50%

New Shares 67,384,779

Earnings Multiplier 7

Exchange Rate 1.4

Todays SP £0.83

For Villeta only:

Earnings 2027 $ $35,000,000

Earnings 2027 £ £25,000,000

Est.Share Price £2.60

% of todays SP 313%

For Group/all projects:

Earnings 2030 $ $115,000,000

Earnings 2030 £ £82,142,857

Est.Share Price £8.53

% of todays SP 1028%

OK, here's 7x earnings with 25% and 50% dilution, which should factor in the shared earnings/project equity finance.

Assume 25% Equity Dilution

Shares in Issue 44,923,186

Equity Dilution 25%

New Shares in Issue 56,153,983

Earnings Multiplier 7

Exchange Rate 1.4

Todays SP £0.83

For Villeta only:

Earnings 2027 $ $70,000,000

Earnings 2027 £ £50,000,000

Est.Share Price £6.23

% of todays SP 751%

For Group/all projects:

Earnings 2030 $ $230,000,000

Earnings 2030 £ £164,285,714

Est.Share Price £20.48

% of todays SP 2467%

Assume 50% Equity Dilution

Shares in Issue 44,923,186

Equity Dilution 50%

New Shares 67,384,779

Earnings Multiplier 7

Exchange Rate 1.4

Todays SP £0.83

For Villeta only:

Earnings 2027 $ $70,000,000

Earnings 2027 £ £50,000,000

Est.Share Price £5.19

% of todays SP 626%

For Group/all projects:

Earnings 2030 $ $230,000,000

Earnings 2030 £ £164,285,714

Est.Share Price £17.07

% of todays SP 2056%

Can I run some numbers past people for scrutiny, because I see an insane level of upside with Atome that seems too good to be true.

Some basics:

Shares in Issue: 44,923,186

SP today: £0.83

Mkt Cap £37.1m

Average earnings multiple for a FTSE 250 company is approx 10x (you can check this figure online and adjust if you disagree). FTSE250 is where we should be by then IF they deliver on their project pipeline.

Atome are the first of their kind at this scale. The FID for their first project is taking longer than expected (due Dec), but once their first facility is built (or being built), further project finance should be de-risked and much quicker.

They’re building a very stable production business, that will produce green CAN fertiliser 24/7, at a known cost and selling at a known minimum price (see offtake RNS). They’re building facilities that will do this for decades, very stable and predictable.

Broker earnings estimates are on page 15 - https://wp-atome-2021.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/09/250724-ATOME-Investor-Presentation-2024-v.fin4_.-0924.pdf

EBITDA $70m in 2027 (against $110m Revenue)

EBITDA $230m+ from 2030 (full production from existing pipeline).

They intend to use debt finance and project level equity finance. It’s complicated, but let’s assume there’s group equity finance/dilution for simplicity, and that debt finance is repaid over 2 years ($125m finance for Villeta I believe, but I’ve factored in equity finance/dilution to be pessimistic).

Let’s assume the $ weakens and to $1.4 to the £ as a reasonable worst case?

Assume 25% Equity Dilution

Shares in Issue 44,923,186

Equity Dilution 25%

New Shares in Issue 56,153,983

Earnings Multiplier 10

Exchange Rate 1.4

Todays SP £0.83

For Villeta only:

Earnings 2027 $ $70,000,000

Earnings 2027 £ £50,000,000

Est.Share Price £8.90

% of todays SP 1073%

For Group/all projects:

Earnings 2030 $ $230,000,000

Earnings 2030 £ £164,285,714

Est.Share Price £29.26

% of todays SP 3525%

Assume 50% Equity Dilution

Shares in Issue 44,923,186

Equity Dilution 50%

New Shares 67,384,779

Earnings Multiplier 10

Exchange Rate 1.4

Todays SP £0.83

For Villeta only:

Earnings 2027 $ $70,000,000

Earnings 2027 £ £50,000,000

Est.Share Price £7.42

% of todays SP 894%

For Group/all projects:

Earnings 2030 $ $230,000,000

Earnings 2030£ £164,285,714

Est.Share Price £24.38

% of todays SP 2937%

You can add on 2-3 years to each scenario while debt is repaid, but they should be throwing off cash after that.

Please comment.

YEah, the delay is frustrating, want to get this moving.

There should be other newsflow in Q4 for other projects.

Karny, are you sure it's 31st Oct? I may have this wrong or this may be something else, but this page says Board Date is 17/12/24?

https://idbinvest.org/en/projects/green-hydrogen-ammonia-and-fertilizer-plant-paraguay

I've made around a 25% gain on this stock in 18 mths including dividend re-investment, which are still over 9% at today's price. What a great defensive stock as interest rates (hopefully) come down.

My view is it's difficult to say what drives it day to day. I suspect there's been a small amount of disappointment re execution (like the solar plant). But the business seems solid and will be bolting on further assets to increase output as permitting is granted. They're in a safe duristriction and the marco around copper look good.

I really do believe this will be £7/share in a couple of years, so when to buy/sell depends on your own investment strategy. Also dividends along the way and potential of an acquisition.

Obs only my opinion, DYOR.

18-24 months copper will be higher, output higher and costs lower. This will be a £1b company then. A nice safe one to sit and hold.

We're expecting news any day now.

The last RNS on 19th Aug said:

"The Company's Chairman and leading shareholder granted a facility of US$5 million starting from Q3 2024 to end Q3 2025 sufficient to support Group working capital requirements."

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/atome/news/rns/story/w94lpgx

So no dilution before then assuming project finance is achived or project equity (which looks likely). If additional capital is required late 2025 the SP should be significantly higher so less dilutive, and debt finance may even be possible.

The big news that's imminent is FID and project finance, then they're ready to break ground, whch should have a significant impact on the SP. Atome is an incredible proposition and will throw of cash, how much will become apparent when the FID is published.

GLA, I'm all in and a long term hold for me.

This sentense is key for me - "We are confident this well will be key to our future success."

https://x.com/HelixExp/status/1830853244614021241

This is a gift, I've added more this morning.

This is a 4 week operational delay, nothing has changed re the prospects.

GLA

In David Minchin’s Proactive Investor interview on Wednesday he said:

-Wire Log this week (ie last week)

-Possible news early next week (ie tomorrow, as Wednesday is mid week).

I have a good feeling about tomorrow morning.

GLA

One small positive is that Lombard appear to have been burned by this too.

Feels like something's going on, something good.

I’ve just listened to all interviews by David and Bo since the IPO, it’s incredible that Bo’s been working towards this for years, using his knowledge and experience of the Montana Helium Fairway and data from previous drills to de-risk this venture. Bo is so confident that he’s the largest shareholder, backed his beliefs with his own cash.

This is a very exciting time for a very exciting stock, I’m glad I got in when I did and I’ve added again last week.

Suspect there will be news tomorrow and if positive, we’ll move to flow testing and learn if this is commercial in about a month. All signs so far look very positive.

GLA

ST had a profits warning recently so are likely canning non core or speculative products. For Nanoco this is about restarting commercialisation and unless that announce serious progress with the Asian customer soon, the investment case revolves around commercialising before cash runs out.

They’re valued at less than cash now for good reason. They either make rapid strides with new customers (unlikely as we’ve seen how slow hardware development is) or they cut costs and change strategy to increase their runway.

Not a good situation and this could well drift into and stay in single figures now.

I’m out, what a ****show. Good luck to you all.