Member Info for longtermthinker

Some,

I seem to recall some of PMO hedging comes of next year too so should start to reap further rewards of a higher oil price if it holds $60+. To be honest, despite the media waiting with bated breath for OPEC talks and US EIA numbers; it would be crazy for OPEC members to say after March, "Ok back to a free for all" and see oil back to the mid $40. I mean I can't imagine anyone has the spare capacity to pump out enough to make it worth while. You'd have to pump 50% more oil to earn more than you are now at $60, or is my maths way off. They may well be cheating a few 100k here and there, but to openly say "We are not taking part anymore", well I just don't see it happening.

LTT

But it's just the way of the market, nothing personal. Terrible news from Tullow and PMO lost 6%+ today on volumes of around 4.5m - 6.5m shares (from LSE saying 4.5m bought, 6.5m sold) not sure how accurate that is, and maybe should be taken with a pinch of salt. RKH on the other hand lost 8.5% on a volume of 800K shares, LSE saying bought value was 3 times to sold, yet we lost 8.5%.

What it says to me is, we are not being targeted by a shorting gang as Nigoil seems to think; there are a multitude of oil companies getting hammered at the moment with much tighter spreads on which to make some money. Why anyone would play here is beyond me, risk/reward trading market craziness on this share would be insanity. If anyone is savvy enough to play the game both ways (oooh erm Missus in a Ken Dodd esk manner!) then you would stay well clear of this.

RKH is now a dream (for some of us I admit a nightmare); it has a lure of riches; well maybe not so much as it did, but anyone coming to this now, is doing so for the dream; the thrill of the gamble for that is what it is, we are in the hands of UKEF, if they don't sign off I don't see us surviving in this market at this time.

However if, and it's a big IF, the ducks do finally line up; shale starts to show it's true colours and oil stays in the $60+ range; we just might be about to catch the perfect wave.

Just IMHO, it's still a BIG gamble and not for widows and orphans. All or nothing.

LTT

Seems a lot of the sector was hit today, seems like the norm these days, knee jerk reactions and to be honest while we don't like it, we have to get used to it as it's this turbulence on which these markets thrive, algorithmic trading. It's nothing personal, most of the time its the big players betting against each other, just we private investors get caught up in the carnage.

Tullow got hit really hard, but losing board members; cancelling dividend and then implying little to no growth over the next 3 years what do you expect! it must be a shorters birthday! And a great opportunity to hit the whole sector.

What it says to me though is, PMO have to pay down debt and concentrate on production growth, because if it even slightly seems to falter it will be savaged as Tullow has been. Shale oil production and rather dubious production figures and reporting in the US has messed up the oil markets. Lack of investment; tightening of purse strings is now coming home to roost.

We are lucky, exploration on the horizon; Zama is going to pay down debt considerably and if the oil price can hold in the $60+ range, the last numbers we got from PMO could seem quite conservative 6 months from now. Of course this short fiasco limbo is a bit of a noose around our neck at the moment, or appears to be, so some clarification there wouldn't go a miss.

My concern now is receiving the UKEF investment sign off. My gut feeling is we will get it, but it will be this order; Zama numbers; UKEF thumbs up; Falklands FID and a partner comes on board; but any link in this chain gets broken and Tullow drop will look like they got off lightly. Correct me if I am wrong but PMO tied their flag to the mast with RKH and the Falklands, where else can they achieve such production growth 3/4 years from now. Even if Alaska was a success how much money would it take to do appraisals then how long to production?

So it's going to be interesting to see what the rest of the week brings. Good luck to us all.

LTT

Nigoil,

is there anyone on these boards you consider not to be boiler room scam artist, it's seems you just tar everyone with the same brush!

I wouldn't be surprised if anyone said "Nigoil is a good informative poster......!" , Your instant retort would be "Scammer, con artist, was the head of boiler room on iii, watch out!", Then you'd remember who you were logged in as! LOL

LTT

I just don’t see how it is not a conflict of interests! I seem to recall the deal on the loan meant there were restrictions on what PMO could and couldn’t do, so if they are having to run everything past these loan sharks, how can it be good for the company. If anything they seem to want their cake and eat it! They want their loan paid back with interest, but they don’t want PMO to be too healthy otherwise the short will cost them dearly!

I do hope some big player decides to go after the big short position and force them to close it.

LTT

I was a bit shocked by the short position, but thinking about it, it’s the way of the world and a bit like being a bookie at the races, get into a position that if you lose one position you win from another. If PMO had tanked, they could get money back from the short.

I don’t totally understand it, but it’s like when shares priced move and then later there is a placing. Funny how those institutions in the know are not done for insider dealing, where as if you had a mate in a company who said next month there was a placing at XXp if you traded on that you could be in big trouble!

Anyway, it’s interesting having this big short in play, if Zama is above expectations and oil holds in the mid $60 into 1st Quarter 2020, there could be a heck of a short squeeze! In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if someone with deep pockets didn’t start buying, forcing the short to be closed causing even more buying and increased share price. Fingers crossed eh, but looking good.

LTT

It’s all a bit odd, so am I right that a company who loaned PMO 380m has been shorting the stock to force the share price down, so they can force them into further debt at no doubt a high rate of interest!

That can’t be right, I must be missing something as that seems highly unethical and dodgy to say the least as they would be privy to all sorts of information that the general public would not.

LTT

LOL Nigoil,

Not too expensive!!!!! If RKH goes to £1 with your holding, you’d be eating in Claridges wouldn’t you! LOL

Anyway all looking good. PMO on the up, Zama news due; oil in the $60+ range. Boding well, ducks lining up and all that.

A strong PMO has got to be good. Surprised RKH is still languishing but plenty of time to catch me things, big spread putting people off at the minute.

LTT

Pay down debt, then be in a much better situation for borrowing for the future.

I feel the next wave up for oilies is coming, of course we don’t want extremes to $80+ but keeping in $60-$70 range does less damage to economy and demand, whilst lean, streamlined companies can reap good returns. IMHO

LTT

Just read this,

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3523223-halliburton-to-cut-800-plus-jobs-in-oklahoma

Real shame for 800 people going into the Christmas season, it also does make you wonder how Shale is going to achieve the growth being touted around. If a big player in the supply/management side is shedding staff does that not go against what everyone is being told; that shale production is breaking records and heading much higher next year. If that were the case wouldn't we be seeing the likes of Haliburton hiring?

LTT

Hi Much,

hope you are well (sorry if me talking to you ties you to the boiler room scammers brush which I am a part of apparently!).

Do you think PMO will update next week? Will they open the envelopes and let the market know straight away? I suppose it would make sense as if the bids are hefty, the longer they sit on it, the more chance of a leaky ship! I'm hedging my bets at the moment with a holding here for my sins and a bit of PMO for good measure, my thinking being, if RKH are taken out then it would be a mostly share offer so I'd end up with more PMO and so still keep in on the Falklands roller coaster; and it RKH stay in the game with the UKEF loan and PMO getting a partner, then my RKH holding should do very well indeed. Win win. Still a gamble, but feeling less so these days.

So yes should be an interesting week. Good luck all. Let's hope Santa comes to RKH this year.

LTT

Just wondering everyone's thoughts, do we think Zama is priced in as PMO getting $300-$400m?

If so then probably same old same old this week, but if not, surely short positions will have to unwind this week. I mean, the bidding was extended, so would someone take the risk of keeping a large short position if there was a chance Zama sale could generate $400m + ? A massive pay down of debt would have to be positive for the share price, not to mention old holding around the $60 and the prospect of Saudi doing all it can to keep it their ready for it's IPO.

Could turn out to be an interesting week.

LTT

Just looking through the trades and the buy side seems to far outweigh the sells, just can't understand why this is staying down, am I missing something.

Ok not huge volume but it seems like higher volume on the sell side and the share price is punished, higher volume on the buy side and it hardly moves. Can't help but think, bad news and RKH could be down and out; good news and we will be in for considerable gains.

LTT

Blooming self correction! I mean PMO are in charge but RKH will need bodies in the office to support them. It would have been nice if they'd cut their hours and taken a pay cut, but again it's make or break, if they don't crack it in the next 6 months then it will be PMO and others producing oil from the Falklands in years to come. Moving forward now will be the best bang for buck, financing and sign off and 50p will be a memory. 3/4 years later with little or no dilution, it will be like the discovery of SL all over again! Interesting times to say the least.

LTT

Hi MikeJE,

yes I do feel the same, it's just whether RKH can survive in it's current form. I understand what you are saying about cash preservation, however they are a big part of the plan, PMO may the banging the drum, but RKH still have to be around to say how high!

The AGM was interesting, did you? Moody was most clear about make or break aspects of the UKEF loan and how this year would be pivotal for the company one way or the other.

Anyway good to see you here and enjoying the balanced debate LOL! Nigiol seems to have me totally sussed, oh to have such insight, intellect and humility! I just don't know where I am going wrong! LOL

LTT

Finally sort of answer to my question, basically your strategy is like buying pre-drill, high risk high reward. I can understand that, if you have 10, then all you need is 1 or 2 to hit oil and you have covered losses elsewhere and made money. Ok good for you.

I must say though your attitude to any form of discussion that does not mirror your "Strong Buy" is a bit disturbing. You just singled out MikeJE a poster from III days whom I greatly respect, offering up thoughts and info that I have found useful. It's a pity your discussion strategy is like your trading, just blow them all off if there is a hint of negativity or questioning and say "They are boiler room", "Scammers, they are in it together".

I feel from here RKH is a speculative buy, but if I was thinking to risk 5K i'd probably be inclined to have 1.5k here and 3.5K in PMO. RKH is binary, if it comes off, 3/5 years from now a small investment could do very well indeed, but it can still all come to nought. That's what the old saying "Part of a diverse portfolio" springs to mind, don't put the house on it.

Good luck with your strategy Nigiol. But if you have made a fortune in the past, why would you waste your time here, how much money do you need?

LTT

Sorry meant buying up BT not BP! LOL Unless they plan to buy BP and stop oil production this thwarting a capitalist company and gaining Eco credits!
;-)
LTT

I can't help but wondering if this could happen. PMO has survived this past 5 years, kept projects going; and now with the sale of Zama and oil in the $60's, be paying down debt much faster than the conservative estimates they just put out. RKH with a current market cap of £70m could be snapped up with shares and cash, who wouldn't be happy to end the misery at say 30p a share, it would cost just over £100m and look what the buyer gets, a basin ripe for development; the free carry I presume would be gone, so PMO would actually get a double bonus cancelling out the carry. Ok they would be liable for RKH's tax bill, but sure that could be kicked down the road to first oil, same terms RKH with FIG.

Sure it's not as simple as that, but if PMO had a suitor that wants a fair chunk of SL and the basin as a whole (lets face it, who wants in just on SL, you'd want to be in on the potential of everything otherwise no point getting involved). Then why wouldn't they do it if they are serious to develop SL.

The only down side to that is, if UKEF say not, then RKH share price would collapse, which it is doing anyway and they could make an even more low ball offer.

I still believe UKEF would at least stump up part of the loan, not sure how this works, but if they asked for $750m, maybe they have an option to say, it's a bit hight risk for us, we are happy to loan to the tune of $400, this would still be a good outcome.

However the fly in the ointment is a Labour Government, sure Labour would have enough on their plate with Brexit and rolling out free broadband whilst buying up BP and privatising the rail/energy markets, but it wouldn't stop Argentina asking a sympathetic PM to halt everything whilst talk begin. Still think it's going to be a hung parliament, but the spectre of Labours radical agenda is effecting a lot of things.

LTT

??????????????????

Please explain where my "half facts" are and explain "the whole story" if you please. Your post there seemed to contain a lot of waffle and not much else. I was expecting a bit more as you seem so sure with "Strong Buy".

I don't have issue with your opinion but you seem no better than the so called "bashers" you want to protect everyone from. If you have posted before and don't want to type everything again, just direct me to your posts which contain your reasoning or thoughts, then I can make an informed opinion with regards to what you have to say.

Seriously I apologise if anything I have posted has been incorrect or misleading in any way, but to say I am a disingenuous poster........... well I don't know how to respond to that, so please do explain where I am going wrong.

Many thanks

LTT

Nigoil can you explain to me how I can think out of the box and see this as a massive strong buy rather than a “high risk speculative buy” ?

I mean that in honesty, I am wondering if I have missed something or how you are seeing things so differently to many others on this board.

Many thanks

LTT