Member Info for longtermthinker

If PMO are toast whom are actually making money and paying off £300million + AND managing to do deals and keep itself going up to now, then RKH doesn't have a chance. In PMO's situation with debt looming next year and trying to buy BP assets there low share price is very limiting, but RKH doesn't need to raise cash at the minute, low oil price doesn't effect as we don't produce and so on, down today on what £80k traded it's laughable.

What is really crazy is PMO being crushed even though hedged production and have Zama up for sale that is worth more than current market cap! Strange hysterical word, but trouble and turmoil makes money for some on the right end of the deal.

In a month or two there will be tales of despair and tales of joy. Which shares will bounce back, hmmmmmhhhhh, soon will be a good time look for those punished way too hard.

LTT

Hi Blue, LOL, Magnum Force was on last night too! Is it a sign!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

Yes I'm still wondering too, just this madness will not last, there are lots of shares oversold and with a little change in sentiment, money to be made. Just have to get in the right one.

Good luck

LTT

I suppose it all boils down to how these companies look at things, if they are focusing on near term events and decide to not sign because of the current oil price/world state, then they shouldn't be in this industry anyway and PMO wouldn't want them as a partner.

I'd have thought they are looking at the bigger longer term picture, $34 Brent today, would be stupid to look at for a project that won't be producing till 2024 at the earliest!

There is going to be an oil shock everyone focuses on Russia, US including shale and SA , but the reality is they only cover about 40/45% of world production, what about everyone else, even if they can produce at these prices; how long before they start to hurt really bad, not to mention the lack of investment to maintain their producing assets, never mind developing further. The lack of investment in future production is frightening, yes oil has bad press which is not helping, but I drove north last week up the M1, full of traffic, services on average have 2/4 chargers and 50+ vehicles at any one time. Oil is not going away any time soon and it will be needed to assist any transition. Before then, there will be development of cleaner, leaner petrol engines and catalysts to clean up emissions and carbon, because that will still be cheaper for the big players with Billions invested in 30 year projects that turning of the taps 20 years early and taking a huge loss.

Still not sure what will happen here, things do not look good, but we will see, good luck whatever your plans, buy, hold, sell, short. But can't imagine anyone shorting here, there must be far more easy pickings with more volatility and better liquidity.

LTT

LOL, I don't think you can take credit for a random prediction that has only come good to a Black Swan event, but it seems keyboard warriors like to feed their ego. Good luck Death with your trading and strategy.

Could you predict something on the positive, if I sell today where should I put my hard earned to recoup my losses? If you can do that I am sure we would all be impressed, but then if you could do that, you wouldn't be Death, you'd be Warren Buffet and not posting on a faceless forum.

LTT

I'm currently in a quandary, contemplating buying again, but trying to understand things a little more. The last update seemed positive, paying down debt; hedged production; talks of restructuring the debt to enable purchase of producing assets and Zama sale. Since them we have the virus, a black swan event and the world has gone mad.

Russia and SA are having a price war, but do we really think this is going to last? Seems they are pricing like it will go on for 6months and year and both are boasting they can survive, but can they really and if it's to kill shale, this is really the wrong way to go about it as it will force the US's hand to bail out the shale industry; no way will anyone allow the toxic fallout of unplayable debt to hit the market now in an election year!

It also seems to me everyone focuses on Russia, US including shale and SA , but the reality is they only cover about 40/45% of world production, what about everyone else, even if they can produce at these prices; how long before they start to hurt really bad, not to mention the lack of investment to maintain their producing assets, never mend developing further. We have had this situation for quite a while now and this has to be a another nail in the coffin for many.

So back to PMO, I can't help thinking, despite the share price we are not in a bad position or at least not at deaths door. Purchase from BP would have been great, producing asset but if that doesn't go ahead then we still did ok last year and reduced debt. Sea lion can be kicked down the road further (not great for RKH, they could fold) but PMO can string that out no problem. I think we are hedged till June so we can keep everything running and lets face it, if things are still on lock down in June; we will have bigger concerns than PMO share price! Debt is May 2021 so we need to have a plan for refinance before then, but it's not due now so are we just trading this low on sentiment that we are going bust?

It's been mentioned that vultures like our friends with the HUGE short just want to cause pain so next year the company restructures and shareholders will be diluted out with big players taking the Lion's share. Is this what the world is coming to, invest and supply loans so you can kill the company, they are worse than the Coronavirus!

Cant help feeling we are galloping towards an oil shock crisis, Shale carries on relentless because it's had free money; no business model in the world over produces into a market thus reducing the price it can charge for it's product, it's insanity, the only reason you would do that is if you can't stop.

Anyway, be interested in in thoughts on PMO survival. Good luck.

LTT

Would we really want news now? I mean it could gives us a boost to 15p ready to plummet down again!

This is not recovering until the general market gets a grip back on reality. Logarithmic trading is what is casing these extremes, that’s why doing anything but follow the trend (if you are a trader type) is the way to go, shorting on the way down then follow everything back up. Hug and hold is a fools game, unless you do it looking at longer term than a week.

There will be lots of opportunity over the next few weeks. I’m currently thinking to buy back in to PMO if they go much lower, they should survive if SL doesn’t go ahead, but RKH won’t.

LTT

I wonder what the boards plans are if we get everything cracking? With FID and a rig heading to the Falklands and everything lining up will they or are they allowed to look elsewhere for funding their share? It was always touted that Moody was well connected to the city and a whizz at making deals so surely there would be options to borrow at a better rate. Wouldn’t want dilution to pay for it though, once the risks are greatly reduced he goes cap in hand to allow the city snouts in, diluting the long suffering. Again something to bring up at AGM.

LTT

Hi Rpoodle,

Thanks for correcting me, you are right I was mislead, suppose on the plus side 6/7% is far better than 15%. I should have looked at this a bit more closely be an interesting point to bring up at the AGM, no doubt the board are currently praying some cracking news will have come by then and all will be forgotten about misleading info and disappearing free carry along with giving away acreage for seemingly nothing. Although if giving away those things gets the funding, partner and FID it’s better than winding up the company for sure.

Either way interesting times ahead I hope.

LTT

LOL, Kurgan I don't have you on filter, only numpties! LMAO. I sympathise I had a spell of frustration with Desire and RKH emailing and no replies. In the end I just didn't believe anything they said and made my own judgement. I got out and put it down to experience, i'd more than covered my loses on Desire thanks to SL discovery. Don't get me wrong I did lose a hefty gain, watched it dwindle away due to my inaction. Luckily I have sold a chunk that covered my original stake and then some, but I still watched as a is five figure holding dwindled down, each week telling myself "The market has to turn, oil is the lifeblood of the planet, Falklands will be drilled soon for sure!" But I was blinded by a 20 fold gain thinking it would turn to 50 or 100 fold gain! I didn't look at the broader market, sentiment. That wasn't the boards fault, that was mine.

But anyway, I'm back in, I believe this is it, if they don't get the funding and FID this year then it's never going to happen, no matter what Nigoil and others wish for. PMO will let this go and concentrate on buying mature assets for developement. It won't be anything personal or malicious it will just be a numbers thing along with the sentiment to oil and gas industry as a whole.

However if it does come good (my own thoughts are it will) then 17p will be a distant memory. I may not ba able to walk into the Aston Martin showroom but Caribbean holidays will be on the cards. At first oil this will be in the £+ without a doubt. That's not pie in the sky, a dream it is maths, no company with such a revenue will have a market cap of £70m not when you are bringing in £200m+ a year.

But it really all comes down to UKEF and FID. If those come good and this is still around 20p I shall jump on the chance to fill my ISA as it will be a steal. I know RKH will have to pay back the development costs share but we forget we have not had to dilute (apart from the our board diluting issuing themselves shares) AND we have gone from PMO offering a 15% interest rate to now having an interest free develop,ment to first oil. That's like being given cash! Imagine if we had to stump up £300m in three months time, asuming we could get it, with an interest rate of say 6% over 4 years we would have a further £78m in interest. So PMO and Navitas are not only covering our costs, they have saved us some hefty costs. If our share of costs would have been more, then it's even more we are saving.

Anyway, lets see what happens, swallows, amazons, turkeys, numpties flying whatever, it's a side show. Any cash from the courts will be flittered away on hobnobs and pensions for the board I'm sure, so its meaningless. The only thing that will keep RKH afloat is SL going ahead, so lets not fool ourselves.

Good luck LTT

Goodness me, 18 green filtered posts, there seems to be some over excited posters with too much time on their hands.

But why do we believe RKH, the board or Falklands Islands owes us anything? This is AIM not sure what the stats are but I would hazard a guess that more than 80% never get to a proper listing and most of those will go bust, share holders will moan, feel let down, feel robbed; they will imagine the board milked it for what it was worth (quite rightly in some cases) and basically lose their hard earned, but they will feel more bitter because they feel their dream has been stolen, their imagination of walking in to the Aston Martin showroom or spending a month in the Caribbean , the yacht in the med!

We should actually take some responsibility for our actions. I was going to say I don't understand why so many spend so much time here bigging up or knocking down, but actually it makes more sense for LSE; argumentative chat begets more chat, good or bad, makes no difference.

Maybe Nig et all will say its bashers trying to get the real info to disappear so REAL investors can't see it. But lets face it REAL investors don't play with AIM, they have a balanced portfolio tracking the FTSE, have a percentage in bonds; some cash on the side; maybe property; a bit in different sectors, basically a diverse portfolio. IF they were to dabble in AIM it would be back pocket, cash they can afford to lose as they are well aware it's a gamble.

I have lost spectacularly on AIM, but I have also made spectacularly on AIM, it's the nature of the beast. Our 50k in Shell or M&S for 5 years you are odds on to make a capital gain and a nice div every 6 months. Worst scenario you might be unlucky a sell at a bit of a loss but the div will have made up for it, but you won't lose everything, they wouldn't go bust but you also wouldn't double, triple or more you money. Aim you could lose it all but, you could possibly pick the right horse and get an amazing return.

Maybe some on here, are actually back in RKH (myself included) because they had a small punt in the early days, they had a few Des shares and thought "Why don't I hedge my bets, Des are mostly likely to stoke this time, but RKH has all that acreage around, they might be dragged into the limelight!" the rest is history, but those who got in then and sold in the £'s get the AIM dream.

Good luck with your strategy whatever it may be and sorry to add to the noise but really take some responsibility for your actions, venting here serves no purpose. If you really are so angry, turn up to the AGM, stand up their and speak face to face with the board; it won't make any difference but at least you might find some closure as here nothing it going to change.

LTT

Do we see that as 150m after the cut to our “Where there is blame, there’s a claim team” ? As they don’t just take expenses and a time charge, they get a hefty cut on a sliding scale, it’s the reason they took it on, on a no win no charge basis. Looking at RKH form of late, they will probably get 20% of the acreage too! LOL That’s why the share price is down.

LTT

Interesting that there are a lot of undisclosed rates, just shows how the market for offshore is currently negotiable. Even so a drillship would be a bit of overkill for the NFB but if the rate is good and the time savings to be able to move around for development drilling, meaning less crew, tow boats etc to get there and wait around, then maybe some accountant can look and it might be worth it.

The real issue is PMO et all having the money and signing on the line and committing before oil starts consistently heading over $70 in a few years time when shale starts its death throws, by then rig rates will be heading up again for sure. The boom bust cycle starts all over again.

Lets see how PMO do today, another step forward for them to being in a much more financially secure future. Oil seems heading up too as China gets back to work, seems Citi group and all talking doom and gloom, never seem to put in to the equation that yes imports are down in raw materials and oil products, but don't you think they will quickly get back up to speed again and maybe push more to catch up, thus increasing oil and material use further!

Its just the nature of the beast, headlines and knee jerks, like this and many other BB's who in their right mind comes on here everyday saying "We are going to the moon" or "We are heading down to new depths", it's about churn/page views/advertising. Get peoples blood up and ranting and raving on here, all counts to advertising revenue as LSE markets space saying "We get 20K fresh page views ever hour". Mind you it is kinda fun reading some of this stuff, not quite iii level in it's day, but funny. The filter has helped me a lot too LOL. Sometimes I come to catch up and there is a page of 30 posts and 25 are green censored boxes one after the other! I just think, someone must have chucked a grenade (metaphorically speaking) into Nig and Garbs box LOL.

Anyway interesting times I hope.

LTT

It does seem like a perfect storm of negativity at the moment, a virus that is supposed to get us all , then government banning combustion engine cars from 2035 and apparently gas boilers. A tumbling oil price and it really does seem like the sky is falling in!

However despite the headlines which we know are meant to grab, what about the energy will be needed to perform this transition and REALLY ban combustion engines 2035, its more like, ban the production of petrol/diesel cars by that date, so anyone getting a new car will have no alternative, but everything on the road will still need fuel, so that will be a gradual process. Same with gas boilers, we won't be ripping them out of our houses, just when beyond repair or new builds/renovations they won't have a choice to have a gas boiler. Will still be millions of homes using them.

Like a lot of this stuff as mentioned earlier, they are saying what people want to hear now. They will be well aware of the strategic importance of having access to petroleum for some time to come. On the one hand promising while on the other securing what is necessary, which will be UKEF underwriting Falklands Oil and continuing to use fossil fuel. The transition to alternatives will require the current status quo to be maintained, who wants energy spikes, recessions even wars, because no-one is investing in oil E&P and the shortfall hits hard. I still believe there will be an implode of shale after the next US election.

It's like Alec Guiness naivety in the man in the white suit, making a fabric that never wears out or needs cleaning. He doesn't understand why everyone is not happy. Not until he is on the run and his landlady won't take him in to hide him, stating why should I help you when you will take away my living washing clothes!

Despite the current climate we are well and truly still addicted, a smooth transition needs small subtle changes, not knee jerk reactions, and anyway what do the politicians care, they are looking at 4 years tops, 5 if they are lucky after that, nobody will come knocking in 2035 saying "You promised................!".

Sentiment wide drop today, but the positive is Russia and SA quickly getting to discussions, they seem pro active to protect $55 a barrel which is what we need longer term to make this viable for FID. Anything above that near production will be cream on quite a substantial cake that will only get bigger. IMHO

Good luck and fingers crossed.

LTT

I think over the next few years Shale is well and truly going to cause problems, but do think its a couple of years or at least until Trump gets voted back in, don't think they will allow the American Shale Dream to implode before the next election is done and dusted.

My feeling is shale will continue but when the next massive rounds of debt are due, loads of them will go bankrupt and then the bigger players who survive will just hoover up the best acreage/producing assets. Without the millstone of dept, the wells will make money BUT in the current climate there won't be the same "Drill baby Drill" attitude as the only reason they haven't stopped drilling and sat on lower production waiting for better oil prices is because of the debt they need to service.

Lets look at it another way, they say Shale is a like a swing producer now; it can effect oil markets because in a blink they can get production on line. So if that were the case why keep drilling hell for leather to get oil to market when oil has swung lower and lower.

Anyway, OPEC seem to be trying to keep a lid on things, may not see the mid $70's anytime soon during election year to keep the US economy ticking over. $55 to $65 should be ok to get FID over the line.

IMHO LTT

Don't forget there was a sliding scale mentioned at the AGM with regards to the cut the lawyers actually got, can't recall from memory but they had a sliding scale, so for example, if RKH won and were awarded 100m then lawyers got say 30% and so on, suppose this would include their fees, not added on top.

Again can't remember exact figures but it was a hefty chunk, but still getting something is better than nothing.

LTT

Is Nigoil blowing a gasket LOL, I’m seeing a load of green boxes saying this you have this poster on filter, it’s very amusing indeed.

Nig, I’m sure it will all come good and you can sail in to the sunset in a solid gold yacht, good for you matey. But considering what you say you have invested and the amount of time you spend on here, I think you will be like the gold prospector who finds gold, shouts it from the hills, then next day is out with the pan, knee deep in the river, looking for more, because the thrill is in the chase, not the catching and it being over.

LTT

Ralph, yes it is peanuts, maybe they re showing that we are the monkeys. But why bother, if they have nothing but contempt for shareholders as many say, then what is the point in even buying this small amount?

Do you think they read these BB’s and in between playing Tetris and Solitaire Sam announces, “I’m chuffin’ bored out of my mind, I’m going to buy some shares that will be like throwing a grenade into the LSE, watch those numpties analyse it to death with a few blowing a fuse!” Then he emails a link to the other board members, remembering to CC in Phipps Jr for good measure.

Yep thats more likely than anything.

LTT

Maybe it’s a sign, Moody’s way to get a message to us that nothing happening for next few weeks, but long term holders fill your boots Good news is coming!

OR it’s a sucker scam to raise the share price so they can sell out before the party is over.

OR maybe it’s a dodgy RNS put out trick us, those boiler room bandits at it again!!!!!!!!!!

Gosh it must be hard being Nigoil nothing is as it seems (play X files music). LMAO.

IMHO it’s a show of confidence, yes a token gesture, let’s face it they have plenty, why buy now, why do they need to, when have they bought with their own dish in the past? I see it as a positive.

Am waiting on the sidelines with only a small holding for now. But next few months seems to hold promise.

LTT

Hi Rib/pseudo,

oh those were fun days, lots of interesting banter and super informative stuff. I haven't been on LSE that long, just started taking an interest again as had a spare bit of cash I wanted to invest so had a little punt on PMO from the 70's and then got in here around 17p and enjoyed the rise (more luck than good management). Sold RKH into the news and now just sat on a small holding. My plan being hold for further news and wait on the side with profits to either catch the next wave when/if it happens; wait it out till April/May to see if UKEF comes good or we get some cash from the court case OR as is seeming more likely now, buy more when it drops to 17p and below again, take profit on the up. Seems doable as there are quite a few people with large holdings who won't sell no matter what.

Just for your info, it is very much like iii but with two resident, shall we say vocal cheerleaders who can see nothing but positives and will not listen to anyone else point of view and basically if you don't agree and make even the slightest negative comment, you are labelled a shorter/boiler room/scammer and if your lucky you get a link added to the rant that then explains how we all do this for a living to fleece genuine investors LOL!

To be honest, the very fact you acknowledged you knew me from the iii days means you are now tarred with the same "boiler room" brush. Sorry about that.

Good luck with your investment, I do feel despite the drop since news that we have turned a corner.

LTT

Hey Matt,

seems you are a bit like me, iii way back when and then been not watching for a few years, but as you say, it just got a little bit more exciting.

From what I can gather and as you can see, since the news of Navitas we are just drifting back into the same pattern, understandably people taking profits, I did, although left some skin in the game even though it's still binary.

FWIW my personal view is if Navitas sign off we will be in a better position should UKEF not get involved. As it was my thoughts were (and the board said so at the last AGM) UKEF loan application was the best timing there was ever going to be; if it didn't come off then things would not be good; they hadn't even looked at a scenarios of an even smaller development as it just wasn't viable or lucrative. That said I don't see UKEF saying no as quite so the end of the world; it wouldn't be good; im sure the share price would be crushed short term; then vultures may circle but we wouldn't go under IMHO.

Now should UKEF underwrite the project even in a small way, then for me its all go; other funding options would suddenly be available as the UK gov is involved; from a security standpoint alone it just breads confidence.

The interesting bit for me is at what point does a rerate happen once Navitas sign and if UKEF say yes? Does it all just simmer till FID; does the market overlook the potential until much nearer time that rig sets off for development drilling? This I believe is where the smaller investor has a chance against the big players as they will only start buying once everyone else does, where as we can buy sooner at lower prices if we have patience and can afford to wait as we don't have managers wanting weekly/monthly/quarterly returns of investment.

But we shall see, for now drift seems to be on the cards. Good luck whatever you decide.

LTT