Member Info for Longish

JPAM, :-) not laughing for very long

JPAM, Vod operates in regulated markets and is heavily policed. Invest or exit

JPAM, I dont expect a div cut..Equity owners should be compensated for the higher risk of Vod holding debt and increasing interest rates and if that rate is 5% then the SP will recover to [Y] or new CEO will buy back [X] shares to restore the equilibrium..

JPAM, 2 pots. 1 for divs/ capital growth/ drawdown...the other to trade short...long...adrenaline LoL

MRD, similar market conditions many years ago...took about 6 to 9 months for equities to bounce back from interest rate rises ie you pay interest before you pay divs. Just like today,the cash was always available for the div and equities hit new highs

MRD, yes I plan to live on the divs...

Well I am writing this on my 4G VOD contract handset and locked in for 2 years along with a few million others..cash cash cash. I remember VOD when it was 80p and the market arguing if it was a utility or growth stock....the data revolution and smartphones emerged. The next phase is the gigabit society..

Hi FRTEB, dont forget the new CEO was the old Group CFO...and the new Group CFO was his deputy. I dont see him deviating from the finacial formula he has created. So far, he seems to stepping up to the Global Leadership role warning nations not to behave irrationally with spectrum auctions....The italy purchase 2.7 bn is written off over 15 to 20 years and consistent with prior policies and technology generations.

jpam what do you think of the Liberty deal if it gets regulatory approval. Would that change how the 'Funds' thinks about VOD

Maybe Mr Read will be measured on customer acquisition and retention growing ie taking market share or new products etc.

Its hard to show if existing customer profitability is being cannibalised for new customers but overhead reduction, absolute cashflow and Div payment is what Mr Read thinks he can sustain if he sells non core assets, digital transformation etc

jpam yes...those systems also use VODs global submarine and terrestrial cable systems and use 100g currently. Overlay 5G and move to software defined networks and Mr Read has a compelling proposition, as an example...

I am pretty sure high frequency traders will want 5g rather then 4G LoL

US telcos who have warehoused spectrum frequencies now believe the value has increased following the Italy auction...

If I value a cashflow in perpetuity using a discount rate I think as follows:

£100 @ .5% = £20k (100/.005) ie the current value of receiving £100 every year forever when rate is .5%

£100 @ 5% =£2k (100/.05) ie the current value of receiving £100 when the rate is 5%

So the present value of receiving £100 every year falls when the discount rate rises….

...is VOD currently proxy for bonds (Liberty etc)
...market doesnt believe the 8% yield or the divs sustainability
...or all these things.

Only when the new CEO explains financial strategy and gives assurances about the dividends will we know which discount rate to use....hang in there until November if you want to book profit or recover losses?

General slowdown in global economic growth ....and Global telcos correlate strongly because they are regulated under WTO and GATT rules...

The debt equity swap in the Liberty deal is strategically right. Mobile Revenues serviced by debt are highest in US then EU then UK and then Asia by a country mile...

I like 162 and buying.

65 only if Vod loses its retail business..LoL

Low frequencies are more economical and more efficient and ultimately the best customer experience. Certainty of a regulated market encourages investment and innovation.
https://www.lightreading.com/mobile/spectrum/italy-5g-auction-bids-top--euro-44b-in-worrying-sign-for-telcos/d/d-id/746301

I expect VOD will make an even bigger overhead saving if it no longer has to provide national coverage. Should get some cash from disposal of the spectrum no longer required

Vodafone UK already sharing towers with Telefonica and savings are in the UK run rate. The rest of Vod europe can make savings using the same commercial model...
https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1M0232

..so today Mr Trump decided not to add tariffs to apple watches...