Member Info for Longish

No not Vod, it already has built out networks and infrastructure but would have incremental costs that NR would offset with digital transformation cost savings etc

Any new entrant might take 15 years to breakeven if you use 3 Mobile as an example for a 3G new entrant.

In the case of Germany 5G auction, a new entrant might reasonably be expected to do the same as 3 Mobile. 3UK only became profitable after 15 years or so and carries a huge intercompany loan on its balance sheet from the Hutch parent co.

So I don't think Vod cashflow is not going to fall off a cliff and the div policy change 'materially'. In any case, there are c26 other countries Vod operates in with their own unique footprint, many more where their Brand (IPR etc) has incremental cash generation potential eg recently Qatar

Maddox,

Consumers are locked in 1 and 2 year contracts so reasonable acquisition and retention numbers in Q3 performance update will reconfirm Vod is still a cash cow able to pay a substantial dividend.

How bad could it get medium term? Well the current play is for the Liberty deal c.Q1 next financial year and the auction rules for Germany are being negotiated ie 5G new entrants. Worst case, Vod has to compete with new entrants. 3UK spent c£10Bn, 3 years to launch, 5 years to build a 3g network, work out a mobile internet strategy and 15 years to breakeven...

Only way I can get to 125 is if FTSE 100 goes to 5800...!!

Rather be in Vod blue chip div stock in that scenario, so will buy more if I get the opportunity. Need to see it, don't believe it..

Someone from the FCA should interview RBC/JPM to validate their models - why the cliff face all of a sudden?

After 30 years of regulation/ price caps etc, data and IPTV revenue growth seems to have been tossed out the window to new entrants who don't have access or ownership of the mast transponders (physical not virtual) and backhaul/ core networks.

How are 5G new entrants going to provide mobile services and compete with Vod if they don't have physical or commercial access to wireless and physical network that have been built out over 30 years?

300 years of books on financial advice in summary...
1.) Buy stocks that represent high quality companies available at reasonable prices. Sell when no longer the case
2.) Ignore short term predictions
3.) Diversify
4.) Fortunes are not easily won (2 types of people on Wall Street, those who made mistakes and the liars)
5.) Watch for other peoples incentives, they are rarely the same as yours.
6.) Dont get obsessed...take the game or leave it alone
Finally,
7.) Money is a tool for living a good life, not an end in itself

Time2Buy,

Interesting. Vod sold its stake in Vodafone Qatar to its joint venture partner (the Qatar Foundation) in early 2018 and kept its red brand present under a 'future partnership deal', which this appears to be...

Its an economically efficient business partnership model addressing next gen comms in a regional hub. Good for Vod!

German regulator getting to grips with 5G, Vod in the mix.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3420069-deutsche-telekom-joins-legal-action-germanys-5g-auction-rules

Need a Vogon poet to explain this market..

Sentimemt I guess.

Happy New Year

Metamorphosis, Jack

Q3 results next. Should be good and hold up through the Brexit, Trade deals vacuum. Either Vod or cash, not many alternatives when all boats rise and fall with this tide.

GLA, be Lucky (not Pozzo)

Godot ;)

Danielh,
'Listen very carefully'...my thoughts too, LoL..
I wish them good luck with Vinci and Gatwick

Hi Jack et al,

It certainly has been a tough year as an investor, not just a Vod investor. I am down in line with the whole market despite my best efforts to beat 'the rot'.

I am heartened today by Captain Louis Rudd who has become the first British explorer to complete an unassisted journey across the continent of Antarctica in 54 days. The mental stamina required is similar when your living standard is dependent on stock market return.

I will be hanging on for the Vod SP to recover and note it is 365 days since Vod SP was 235p..

While tariffs on soya beans are top of the US China negotiations list, I also note Captain Oguri Jukichi managed 484 days lost at sea with only Soya beans to eat. Trump Xi please take note..!

GLA and a prosperous new year

2019
59p will give a div yield of more 22%?

Doesnt look like Europe is raising interest rates until all the 'multilateral' trade deals are a known. Recent Vod bond auction didnt entice 50% of holders to higher risk outside Vod. Theoretically debt makes no difference to the value of a firm
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modigliani–Miller_theorem

LoL, I dont just hold Vod and hopefully around -27%

2019
The etf glide path is more exposed to the arbitrage because it is an average. In this environment, individual political events and agreements will be lost in the average. Vod is pregnant with possibilities and I get pai for holding it.

Fleccy
'For someone entering the market now and going long, with a dividend reinvestment strategy, the current market could be very lucrative'

I agree.

Danielh,

Thanks. I dont know where the bottom is but I would rather be in the market (Vod) than out. Nothing fundamental changed in Vod since 170... geo politics, brexit and QE/QT forces are impacting all share and fixed income valuations.

I am confident Vod will pay the next and future dividends and this is the basis of my pension income.

Could easily be a trend reversal at any time in this environment.

As for Brexit, I had to laugh at Nigel Farage who is now talking about a 2nd referendum because he doesnt get his MEP pension if there is no deal

GLA. What a disappointing week.

I bought a few more at 150 and in Vod for the long run.

My reading of BATS website is they 'commence trading ex div 27th December on LSE' so with div today on LSE!

http://www.bat.com/group/sites/uk__9d9kcy.nsf/vwPagesWebLive/DOALSC3V

Merry Christmas all!

C'est la vie.

Q3 results next and if they are good (NR said H2 will be better than H1), Vod should perform better than the market

GLA