Member Info for Longish

SP doesn't know whether to go up because it wants our Div or down because Vod just spent some FCF

LoL. I didn't think they would go lower than £32 and had to trade in and out.

Tough market all round this last 18 months

he did ok on BATs today..

Hi Halfpenny
Brookfield going after KPN and Elliot into Telecom Italia.

Interesting KPN have been investing in Getmany but 5G wasnt on the radar until now

H-hi
Yes, they removed the BT CEO because he forgot that shareholders ultimately own the company. The Directors have a duty to maximise value to the shareholder..

6th June. Has to be 'declared' to be 100% certain

Pricing has to open tomorrow out of 'ex div' period ie if you own it tomorrow and hold, you get the next div when it is 'declared'. Next div is c8.9p depending on exchange rate

If you move around too much you are guarenteed to pick up a negative ...good to rebalance your strategy.

BT not much better and outgoing CEO calling year 2021 for the recovery

Mike
TIM, Vodafone working on deal to share 5G investments.

Good management are working. The cost saving will offset the higher than expected spectrum costs which were worrying people last year

Groan

Chicmiller LoL 140 I wish.

I guess I could have got out when TomE sold Vod for TW and Greatland. Would be very comfortable now and TW pays a good Div.

Selling Vod for an AIM stock however was brave. Gold, like oil has its moments I guess

Hi Pokerchips,

I dont disagree.

But the downturn in revenue is a global industry trend not specific to Vod. It is generally caused a move from selling metred legacy voice type services to bunded data services eg IP etc ( and varies by stage if evolution in each market). Vod data service revenues (smart phone services etc) are growing. Cashflow is balanced for this transition. More recently it is underpinned by a more conservative policy recognising revenues over the length of a customers contract rather than eg upfront recognition of the sale of a handset (IFRS) etc. It is built upon by bundling more services into the customer proposition eg Liberty deal, and makibg customers more sticky and spending more in Vod services.

Vod is confident in its FY guidance on EBITDA and free cashflow accirding to their reports.

Good luck

LoL I am not writing any more today. Just noticed I wrote Goof luck....could end up with mickey mouse as CEO at this rate

Hi Quady,

No doesn't make much sense at the moment.

The FCF seems to be steady and would support holding the Div flat for a period before reverting to +inflation when all the uncertainty is over. In fact, you would have to lose millions of customers to make any significant dent on the cash flow...The balance sheet (simplified) hasn't moved much in the last 3 years so any incremental debt/ interest is easily being covered out of annual FCFs.

You may be right about a takeover of one or all entities and a bid taking the price back to fair market value.

I could see a large European operator who can take advantage of cheap debt supported by the ECB QE reinvestment programme or maybe a Chinese operator to get their competition metrics back in line with WTO/ GATTS rules so they could then source Huawei kit and devices...etc

Anyway, I get my cash div in a couple of days and looking forward to (net) upside from here on in..

Goof luck

Hi Quady

The numbers I have are from 31st March year end 2018. Coincidently not much different to 2015. I rounded to Bns

The point is the realisable value of the Vod assets is €68Bn but the market value according to the SP is €36Bn.

The market seems to be pricing Vod like it is going bust and economies wont need mobile networks

Hi Moniman,

There are c.26.7m shares. Vod net assets are c€68Bn. That gives a share with a net realisable value of 2.55. Maybe this is the basis of higher targets.

Doze,

The weekend FT described Trumps stance as 'grandstanding destruction of the American economy' and not to place much hope on the US getting the global economy out of trouble if he continues with this style of negotiation.

He reminds me of those CEOs who get brought in to do a hatchet job on a companys culture. The company spirals down and down. Hope the US doesn't as it will drag us all down with it.

Bought some more Vod at the close today...

GLA

Vods

Vod will probably have to sell some of its legacy consumer business in germany as a remedy to DT. Deal will go ahead (imo) they are negotiating the remedy. Unite will need to buy access from O2 (or Vod) as they dont have a 5G license or network. Germany wants Vod to continue investment.

You dont need to own the masts. You need to own the transponders on the mast to meet the regulatory requirement for population and geographic reach. You dont lose control of your network. DT probably provide backhaul from many masts as Vod does for DT. Its a complex mix that occassionally hits the media with poor service when things go wrong with sigmalling and routing traffic levels. The network throttles the service delivered.

LoL fortune favours the brave

Illbet
Must be nearer the bottom than the top.
I have been buying all the way down and bought again on Friday 140.17..
Good luck