Member Info for Longish

Jack et al

I agree. Capitulation is not in my plan. I can only see a happy ending for Vod :-)

Love the Doors, Joy Division (..New Order) and Magazine below

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=magazine+secondhand+daylight&view=detail&mid=5A817C55CD871177C6F65A817C55CD871177C6F6&FORM=VIRE

GLA

Article worried about div sustainability beyond June final div. Doesnt mention Liberty

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/thinking-buying-vodafone-share-price-084519782.html

https://www.vodafone.com/content/dam/vodafone-images/investors/pdfs/Investor%20Presentation%20-%20FINAL.PDF

LoL. I bought some more at 138.1 with div. Missed lower price eatlier

Probably needs another investor/analyst/ Goldman day to move it up the confidence curve. Q4/ €5.4bn FCF and Liberty some way off. Vod will have a mountain of pre and post brexit analysis. Would be good to hear positives under either outcome

Jack, Dan
I haven't been able to get on all day due to an access issue. Fine now..

Hi Gerry,

I guess in the final analysis its like the Fed ... 'data dependent'. We cant accurately predict any single component because of the interdependencies with other components leading to net FCF...

However, the telco industry knows its operational momentum and the context of the economic environment. BT is also calling 2020/21 for a recovery in performance and SP.

Its typical for a Telco at this stage to enter a period of 'sweating the assets' for cash. NR talks about simplification with strong commercial controls around capital investment and this should get a cash step change that not only underpins FY FCF €5.4Bn pre spectrum but positions for H1 next year including the Liberty deal..

Internal operations are under NRs direct control and if he doesnt achieve FCF he will be out imo! Looks like everything hinges on the Liberty deal. Angela Merkel is keen to do deals with the UK..

Hi Gerry,

The Board have a policy of div growth. At end of H1 NR said he expected the div to be held flat in June and the BoD seek a return to growth.
Inflation is reducing - currently c2% across EU but higher in RoW where forex and other macro forces are at work.
Vod in country activity is strongly correlated to GDP which is slowing in OECD countries but currently over 3%.

I think a div cut will lead to exec redundancies and more SP uncertainty

Thanks

Mike, where did you see that?

Good point on the div forex. It will probably be a list of things in the end and in the way Vod presents its FCF eg incremental interest, forex, one off events etc

The Weekend FT says UK Plc (Vod, BT, GSK, Centrica, Standard Life Aberdeen and SSE) live in a dividend fantasy land. Says companies are gasping for cash and Vod in particular shouldnt sell its towers. Any CEO brave enough to cut the div and the Execs will lose their job so all are hoping something will turn up.

Concludes that Execs and Fund Managers need to understand if a div is not earned, it is not sustainable.

Might be quiet because they are all thinking about it.

If Vod can maintain its customer acquisition and retention metrics then ebitda should hold up. If it writes down some of the balance sheet toward market value, that should convert to cash cost savings. Layer Liberty on top and the div may get back to growth or at least maintained.
GLA

Hi Smartie
I don't understand the financial implications (cost) of the move yet. There is usually a tax charge moving assets out of one jurisdiction into another. The EU and UK agreed the principle of equivalence but I don't know if this applies to taxation. If its BAU then I think its a forex bet between the £ and the €

...'with each valuation'

Thank you Jack

See my post to Stockplay. I want >180 to relax but also want to hold long term for the income..

IMO the sum of the parts are definitely worth more than the current market value and if there are more JVs etc, the SP should benefit each valuation and confidence in the joined up commitments

Stockplay,

I am of course not giving advice. My thinking is that from January, we are in the reinvestment phase of the ECB QE/QT programme ie as securities purchased come to maturity, they will be reinvested in the 'secondary markets or real economy' of EU participants such as Germany and available for projects like 5G...?

Vod SP seems to have been driven by concern around debt and FCF as the QT money has dried up. As the monies are reinvested in 'negotiated agreed EU projects' Vod must be well placed to benefit?

IMO, if Vod SP is correlated with the reinvestment programme timings, from the table in the link below, we could see the SP rise in the period from Feb through to a May peak (c 170p) around the time of the Liberty deal and going ex div 1st week June.

Today is of course the 1st of Feb..
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omt/html/index.en.html

Stockplay
I think
June 2019
FTSE 7200
Vod 170

H-hi
Interesting. I kept a few share certificates when they were beautifully engraved and some were framed and in the attic...
The modern certificate is simply a printed statement.

When I was a young articled clerk, I would stamp company share certificates with a mechanical iron stamp...a long time ago LoL

Hi Jack,

I was going to mention the ii BB layout but thought I hadnt figured it out. I suppose once you are into a thread it is easy to follow.

Transfers are a pain and some ancient funds still think it is their money. WHICH investment guide puts HL top with a customer score of 76% looking at customer service, value for money and clarity of charges. ii is 60%, The Share Centre 69%...

I dont think any of them have got it completely right or ever will meaning the ability of the investor/ trader to triangulate info from multiple sources is key.

As for Vod ,it caught most out except the UK CEO and Beamer :-)

Best

Thank you Jack, Caku.

Just had a look at ii and will do some research.
Are the discussions generally more focussed on investment v day trade or all are all BBs the same?

LoL up then down.

My div hasn't turned up yet so down then up would suit me