Member Info for Longish

Dan, Jack, 'Why is a 2.16 sp rise on strong volume, any better than on weak volume?' Found this explanation and link below...

Volume is an important indicator in technical analysis as it is used to measure the relative worth of a market move. If the markets make a strong price movement, then the strength of that movement depends on the volume for that period. The higher the volume during the price move, the more significant the move.

Fundamental analysis is based on company performance and is used to determine which stock to buy. Technical analysis is based on stock price and is used to determine when to buy. Technical analysts are primarily looking for entry and exit price points, and volume levels provide clues about where the best entry and exit points are located.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/volume.asp

LY,

Are you a Vod shareholder? You can always turn your phone off.

The OECD reports on wellbeing from digital transformation. Its not just about phones although a phone and access to the internet is now considered a fundemental human right..

http://www.oecd.org/social/how-s-life-in-the-digital-age-9789264311800-en.htm

50:50 like the zero coupon bond auction earlier in the year.

I think the cashflow from consumers is key. In a sample of 1, I cant see me giving up my phone or changing the direct debit. Think cashflow is tight and is OK if no surprises!

NR currently holding 2.9m shares so he has an incentive to get the price back up..

Is the £3.4Bn mandatory convertible bond a financial conjuring trick ?
Has Vodafone shorted itself in derivatives of QE....?

Well, if Vod can maintain the div, the signs for German consumer spending are positive with wages rising. Liberty quad play still looks like the only game in town.

But oh boy, what a slow grind...holding on.
GLA

..and now an advert for a printed tee shirt with the message 'I am a happy go lucky ray of fu#!ing sunshine'

Should that be removed from the site. LoL

LoL, I am getting adverts on my page for 'Luxury furnished apartments with a 5-year payment plan in Dubai'

What do you think, a good investment?

I guess the issue is international trade and capital flows benefiting institutions in need of constitutional reform. The global debate around increasing inequality and the rise of populism when people feel disenfranchised yet have their heads down, work hard and want the best for their children etc

I hope millennials have been filling their boots with Vod at this price. Certainly redistributed my wealth..

Thanks Jack. Forever Changes one of his too ;-)

Jack, riders of the storm..LoL

..just seen your post, fair enough

Not sure Jack. I think it was about debt and literary references to research company SP performance when holding to much debt.

I think Vod debt is OK'ish given its regulatory obligation to provide coverage to whole populations. A rational service provider who wants to maximise profit would focus on 40% geographic coverage catching 80% of the population.

If governments are using QE to pay public sector salaries, then a certain level of debt seems appropriate to finance the additional 'regulatory related' network assets required as long as the network is operated efficiently, encouraging innovation, public welfare etc.

NR has ameliorated with options on share buyback and debt conversion depending on post Liberty performance which in my mind is a simple subscriber based model based on bundled quad play prices and consumer spend/ affordability etc...

The SP seems like it is trying to bottom. Our next problem maybe when to top slice/ sell without missing significant further upside!

Good luck and all

'Does VOD have more Verizon loan notes? I think the last one is being used for this buyback'

I think that's right..

SEC Form 6-K January 29, 2019

As announced on 19 February 2016, when the MCB was issued Vodafone also entered into an accompanying option structure. This option structure will ensure that the total cash outflow to execute the Programme will be broadly equivalent to the £1.44 billion raised on issuing the second tranche of the MCB, regardless of any differential between the conversion price and the ordinary share price during the execution of the Programme. Therefore, the maximum pecuniary amount allocated to the Programme is £1.5 billion (taking into account money received or paid under this accompanying option structure).

The Programme will be financed out of the proceeds from Vodafone’s Verizon loan notes, which Vodafone received in two tranches as partial consideration for the sale of its 45% stake in Verizon Wireless in 2014. Vodafone received US$2.5 billion in cash in May 2018 following the redemption of the second tranche of these loan notes.

https://tools.eurolandir.com/tools/Pressreleases/GetPressRelease/?ID=3561668&lang=en-GB&companycode=uk-vod&v=sec

'They use their Verizon money, dont they?'

Not sure on the numbers, what is ringfenced and how the MCB €4Bn is drawn down/utilised. This link sets out the original Verizon deal and its accompanying commentary ...

'Vodafone will retain by inference 30% of the money, enabling it to halve the level of debt on its balance sheet, taking the firm down to the lowest levels it has seen since 2005. The company will also significantly reduce its share count and hereby "significantly improve" dividend cover.'

http://www.the-financedirector.com/features/featuredeal-of-the-decade-vodafones-divestment-of-verizon-wireless-4289222/index.html

The international roaming costs may be a red herring as more traffic goes OTT and calls home go via wifi rather than legacy international circuits.

The industry governance has long dealt with US security issues over Huawei and customer contracts. A complete ban would be disruptive not just Vod but operators who are even more dependent on 3rd party suppliers like H3G or brands like Virgin/ Tesco

meh, I think ECB also believe inflation will run below target for longer too. Vod will need to get its (liberty) quad play pricing balanced/ bundled to flow through as growth.

Yes I would like to top slice at least. I am not sure about the MCBs timeframe. Liberty bondholders have an option to go with Vod or not and the €4Bn may be offset or a fudge?

Agree with that. Try recovering witholding taxes via your broker..

Well if we have seen Vods bottom, its a big fat bottom. I think if we see some group corporate and network operation cost savings in the FY results along with liberty and other strategic initiatives, it should do better. Still hoping they maintain the div and return to div growth 2020/21

BoD have statutory duties laid out in the companies acts etc and, for example, can get jail time for false or misleading statements or negligence (look at Elon Musk etc). They have a responsibility to any stakeholder who places reliance on the financial accounts eg net asset value is >€60Bn but SP c€36Bn..

Because Vod service obligations are regulated they have responsibility to ensure compliance with the terms of their licenses in each market such as ensuring public welfare benefits like universal service obligations are met. That adds up to lots of fixed assets dragging down their financial efficiency scores Ideally Vod would only build network in 40% of the geography cos thats where 80% of the population is (....and wifi). But the regulator insists network coverage for 90% of the geography to ensure a chicken farmers
assistant in rural lincolnshire can access the internet...in return Vod gets exclusivity with other licenced operators in its markets..

Maybe NR performance should be measured by the number of building floors the regulators occupy ie reducing the number if floors by 1 each reporting period ...

Think he used to be a partner in PwC, the outgoing auditors. Probably his fees, not really any kind of commitment. Having said that, wish I had bought 20k at that price as an entry point.
Good luck