We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
Things that could drop any day now:
- RNS on phase 2/Q4 product launch
- Trading Update
- RNS clarifying capital reduction vote (after it's ratified on the 6th?)
I've no idea why the headlines are so dramatic and grim today. I do think the company needs to get on top of this sooner rather than later. The big story this evening and undoubtedly in the morning is about how the share price has now lost 1/5th of its value on the back of the news - which was already made clear to the market with the last annual report.
It's moronic to see stories about how SDRY will be getting a loan with higher rates than before - news flash guys, base rates have been rising consistently at every MPC meeting for over a year now.
Unfortunately what should've been a fairly non-event has been (in my opinion) manipulated into something to appear much more dramatic than it is. The media love it when a big name brand goes bust, it sells papers.
I've done a crude method of monitoring Black Friday sales performance, obviously, this is still early days as many orders will still be getting fulfilled.
I scraped Trustpilot and took a count of the reviews for the month of November on 20/11/22 and then did the same today. This has shown an increase of 671 reviews in an 8-day period
https://twitter.com/CharlieUK98/status/1597328289403932673
-----
20/11/22 00:46 - 771 Reviews @ 4.13 avg
28/11/22 20:27 - 1,442 Reviews @ 4.15 avg
Num reviews ? 7% from last month, 2 days remain
My understanding is that they are simply negotiating a refinancing deal. They are in a much stronger position than when they last negotiated, they're actually turning a profit now with a much more streamlined business.
Obviously, the only possible downside is we're in a high-rate environment at the moment. But I'm like 70% sure this is a good thing (opinion, obviously)
Across the pond the fed minutes revealed that a "substantial majority of Fed officials see rate hikes slowing 'soon'". This caused a small rally today (possibly in-conjunction with the long thanksgiving weekend).
Hopefully BoE is ready to start saying enough is enough soon too!
An optimist may counteract by saying think of it as the start to an epic comeback story ;)
Out of interest what is the historical AIM winner of all time? I know recently NCYT & HARL had some pretty big returns for some...
For anyone interested here is the latest Trustpilot statistics as of Sunday morning. I will update this some time next week, it should give an indication of black Friday sales. I might wait until Saturday 3rd or Sunday 4th.
https://twitter.com/CharlieUK98/status/1595149885455863814
Desperate? Sorry but that's not how I see this. Superdry is already in many outlet stores & this builds on wholesale revenue. TK Maxx probably being the most well-known outlet store stocking Superdry right now.
M&S actually attracts a lot of younger middle-class people who have disposable income. Particularly through their food stores which have become quite trendy (particularly around Christmas!). Remember, it will be the girlfriends & wives doing the Christmas shopping for their male partners, they also tend to spend more. This is not a bad thing at all imo
My assumption is they want to replace whatever asset-backed facility they currently have for credit with a deal much more favourable to them & in time with the new economic climate which also takes into account the recent success of the business?
I imagine their recent financing deals since 2018 haven't been great considering the state of the business. They're in a position now to negotiate better deals with a new stage of growth.
And I agree Duggs, as of their last reported balance sheet I have extracted a total of £22m as debt with a cash (inc financial instruments) balance of £30.3m. Net cash of £8.3m. Like you say, a credit facility is a kind of credit card for businesses that they can draw on at any time, rather than constantly having to negotiate a loan.
This company has been good on managing cash since Dunkerton & co came back. And at the minute, cash is king.
Nice work Duggs, good info
AIM All-Share is actually up on the month for the first time in a while (Im p sure). So hopefully, for once, MHC can actually sustain a rise in the share price!
Got to remember, Directors have significant holdings here. They'd be happy with a dividend too :) - It does feel like they're gearing up for something... perhaps alongside the next announcement of phase 2 products?
The amazon delisting is interesting. It would make little to no sense for them to just randomly remove their products as it doesn't cost anything significant. Especially if you're not getting sales.
JBongo, I like your list of possible reasons. The only thing I would add to it is the possibility that Amazon have removed the tests for a breach of terms of service, Safety or something like that might be needed for medical sales (I think this is very unlikely).
My gut suggests they are preparing for a relaunch with the next batch of products, Amazon was probably not driving any sales (but their own website does if you believe the ticker).
Inflation in very hot at 11.1% today is very depressing. I've noticed a lot more price hikes in the past month than throughout the whole year on consumer & discretionary goods.
Autumn budget tomorrow is the next hurdle which could impact things here. I will consider buying more at 120p or lower, it could hit that if the reaction to the budget is bad tomorrow (Expecting lots of tax hikes, I think Hunt is going to hit shareholders & savers hard) they want savings back into the economy.
My avg is 113p, pretty happy with that. Glad I did some extra buys at the end of Oct/start of Nov
Scharnhorst I completely understand your frustration. In my opinion we're basically in the exact same position as last year, except with /some/ wellness products on the website aside from just COVID.
I highly encourage anybody who has doubts about the management here to relisten to the recent presentation. Adam (chairman) was very on it in response to questions about acquisitions and returning shareholder value. He says acquisitions are definitely on the table, they just want to make sure it's the right companies they're buying.
The next big thing here is going to be the next batch of products, which are much more attractive than the current ones we're selling. That is due any day now really "Q4". After that, I do think it's imperative for Penny & co to be switching their focus on getting these products on retail shelves ASAP.
Just benchmark this against most other AIM stocks over the past year. You'll see it's not done anywhere near as badly as many others. We're in a cash strong position, the company are fairly frugal with the money too which is good when we're entering a recession.
I agree Jimini, 140-150 is next resistance level. I think it breaks through (unless Budget crashes the market).
SDRY seems to be attempting the start of a rerate now. I think 120s will be a thing of the past in the next week or so
From reading that article it just sounds like the British Government isn't too keen on having their troops seen working in the same combat zone as the Russian mercenary Wagner Group. These ruthless people are getting very well known for their work in Ukraine at the moment.
If anything, this bolsters the Malian Government or mercenary groups to unfortunately use more brutal tactics to suppress opposition since there will be little to no Western overwatch. Which will be better for stability, but could be worse for the civilians. It's a very complex situation.
Honestly, I don't think 888 were out of their means with the acquisition. But it was a very negligent & stupid move when everybody could see what was coming re. inflation.
It's obvious the price action these past two days shows that 888 will attempt to recover when inflation reverses. UK inflation data in the next couple of weeks could decide if we ever see 100< again in the short-medium term tbh.
Granted though, the board will have to prove the WH acquisition was worth it much quicker than they would've done if it hadn't levered itself up so much to pay for it.
We're supposed to be hearing about the new tranch of products any time now. That should be significant. The presentation is definitely worth a rewatch if people are losing faith here.
US inflation seems to finally be on a downtrend, if that continues then so will the rally that their markets are having right now. The UK needs to see the same trend start to happen by the end of this year we need inflation to be flat if not lowering. That should hopefully begin the turnaround here.
I think the most important thing to remember here is what the Chairman said. Look at the AIM Indiices, look at most other AIM shares. They have been decimated this year. MHC is actually only down 9% from where it was 1 year ago today where as FTSE AIM All-Share is down 32% over the same period. MHC is holding up, the business is in a fantastic position and Penny is clearly someone who enjoys working towards a goal.