Member Info for londoner7

In terms of corrective action the focus has been on software and pilot trainings/procedures.

The resultant delays to delivery should have little impact on SNR.

This was reported this morning, 'Investigators have found a piece of a stabilizer in the wreckage of the Ethiopian jet with the trim set in an unusual position similar to that of the Lion Air plane, two sources familiar with the matter said.'

Perhaps SNR manufacture this, or a related, component and those algorithm trading bots responsible for the majority of trading in SNR have made a linkage.

Time will tell if this is an over-reaction or a 'shot across the bows'.

Therefore, the comment you made, "they bought the Oil and Gas engineering company at the top of the market a few years ago" was wrong.

There's a short article in the FT on Dignity. I didn't see much of interest but it prompted me to go to the CMA web site.

https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/funerals-market-study

I was interested in the responses to the interim report. There's a good mix of views from those at the business end, those that seek to represent various consumer groups and those that seek to take a cut from the activity without any direct involvement, comparison web sites, consultants and other agencies - I suspect the interest of the latter is to drive down costs at the business end solely to enhance their own margins.

I only read a small sample but one that stood out was the response from A W Lymn, a small independent funeral provider, who makes a decent argument for quality over cost, at least for their segment of the business. No doubt they also feel that the costs of delivering the actual burial or cremation should be driven towards zero. The larger groups like Co-Op and Dignity who put up the capital for the provision of the essential elements are being targeted from all directions. That said it appears they've had it their own way long enough.

I don't envy the CMA's task to resolve these various views.

rag, I agree with your points. The dividend policy is very clear so a 50% increase requires the same in earnings (div = 55% adjusted EPS), which is 14.5% pa. Quite possible particularly with 2019 expected towards 20%.

However, the theatre chains are all dependant on the output from the movie producers, and in the year or so I've been following this industry the blockbusters like Avengers, Captain Marvel etc make a big difference in admissions revenue. This year looks good but I've no idea about 2020 and 2021.

The other factor is disruption from the likes of Netflix. Yesterday Berenberg made a good case for the theatre industry holding its position within the leisure industry. They argued that when consumers choose to go out for an evening they make the choice between restaurant, bar, show, bowling, cinema etc. The choice isn't, shall I stay in and watch a movie on Netfix or go out to the cinema. (The case was put better than I recall it)

Based on my own preferences I support this view, but as a shareholder in Cineworld I accept I may be biased.

If as an investor you believe in the business model then the question is which chain (management) do you invest in? Having listened to calls by each of the three large US chains over the last year I favour Cineworld. I was impressed with their commentary in yesterday's call - they clearly know the business. I was particularly impressed with comments on reclining seats and their leverage with landlords in the US shopping malls. Also, the fact that if there's 'spare cash' they would prefer to invest rather than pay down debt shows confidence.

If you didn't catch the call I believe a recording will be available on the web site soon.

It comes across to me as a sales pitch on the processing of vintage data using modern techniques, but ultimately only a drill bit will prove it up.

As they say, the devil is in the detail, but the headline appears to be the $150m run rate on synergies (profit gains from the merger) for 2019.

The original forecast was for $100m, with brokers recently talking of $120m. An extra $30m might not sound much but put a PE on it and it could add 6% to the value of the company.

Nohearts, I think your numbers are wrong.

The underlying operating profit for H2 was £33.8m. It was £11.6m for Q4. IMO that was a very poor Q4 result and doesn't point to a very good Q1.

However, this comment, "The trial in part of the country of a limited funeral in 2018 resulted in a smaller proportion of full service funerals than expected. Given the introduction of the Group's Tailored funeral, which provides even greater choice to customers and which will be introduced to all locations during 2019, the limited service funeral is no longer necessary and trials of this type of service have ceased." suggested to me that the trial of the limited funeral may have been the cause of the big drop off in average revenues in Q4. Listening to the call I get the impression the sales approach with 'Tailored funeral' will be to offer add-ons to increase revenues above the limited service level price point.

As I've said on this board before, Q4 was a bad quarter. The above explanation may be behind it. The 2019 Q1 will be interesting but faces very tough comparisons on a couple of fronts with 2018.

In the call Dignity guided to underlying profit of £68m for 2019. Although well down on 2018 I still see this as optimistic so I'll be watching from the sidelines.

LY, you say, "Personally I don't see who will force them to pay the money? Do you?"

Investments in some jurisdictions are very risky due to political instability and corruption - India falls into that category. Therefore, large foreign investors will only invest given certain safeguards and this frequently includes 3rd party arbitration on disputes as part of doing business. If India fails to accept the decision of arbitration then this mechanism fails and foreign investment would fall off a cliff. The cost to India would be much larger than $1.4b. That is why India will pay up if an award is made in Cairn's favour.

This sums up construction projects these days, not sure when, but sometime. In my book the first significant milestone is putting a shovel in the ground and digging a hole. The next one is filling it with Breedon aggregate. One for 2022, maybe.

“Although the start of construction is still a number of years away, this first non-statutory consultation is a significant milestone. We’ll be presenting different options for dualling the six remaining single lane sections of the A66 and our improvement plans for Kemplay Bank roundabout to get the public’s views on what might be the preferable options.”

https://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/more-views-sought-on-a66-upgrade

Cpel, to be precise, had rope on board.

Can we be sure it hasn't been lost overboard.

I think there's still mileage in the rope saga!

I'm a holder here but I couldn't help a wry smile when I noticed the ship had turned around.

I anticipate a sweepstake for how far she gets on the next outing. ;-)

Yes, CPRs.

Under Warwick prospective GPos 77%.

The comment, "All necessary technical assurances have been received.", suggests to me that "operational planning" simply refers to the activities necessary to safely route traffic onto the new section.

But as has been pointed out, this doesn't mark the end of GFRD's involvement in the project. There is a maintenance element, but I believe that phase is profitable. It may be related to the £20m of equity investment in the AWPR project that was mentioned on the call, but I don't know the detail or potential return on this investment.

Also, while the road may be fully opened this week I understand there is still some peripheral work to complete in areas like drainage etc which may last another couple of months.

There's a saying, "There's only one reason to buy a share but there can be many reasons to sell".

Who knows, other than AXA, why they reduced their stake. But this sale of 2% of Breedon would explain the recent weakness.

You can now tick that box, 'Learn something today' and bin your copy of the Daily Mirror, then the next time your at the game but can't get Jeremy Kyle on the mobile you can turn to you mate and say, "cr*p bandwidth".

philpot1001, if I may be so bold as to offer an alternative strategy.

I used to trade shares, i.e. all in or all out. I was rubbish. I now buy and hold shares where I see long term value, but regardless of how much I believe in the value story if those shares jump significantly due, for example, to yesterdays trading update then I sell a portion, with the plan to buy that portion back later at a cheaper price or reinvest elsewhere.

I don't give it much thought, it's essentially a rule. The fact that it works much more often that it fails means that the only change I'm looking to make to the rule is to make the portion larger. But I need to take care not to return to being an out and out trader again. Too much screen time and I prefer to be out walking, particulally on a day like today.

Walkies!

This doesn't help

https://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/costain-and-galliford-try-told-to-delay-motorway-works

Galliford had a construction team lined up to start work this spring on a £67m project (4-5%) of full year revenue and they've just been told by Highways England, "hold up, we've had a change of mind, delay for one year, our consultants got it wrong and need a another year to figure it out"

What does that construction team now do for the next 12 months? A good example of the delays and resultant impact I commented on in my post 16th Jan.

A perfect example of where 5G operating on the higher frequency spectrum would out perform 3G and 4G.

The problem today isn't reception - look at your phone and you'll see good power levels - but insufficient bandwidth. All the bored Arsenal fans following the Spurs game on their mobiles! ;-)

Reception depends on the frequency band used. The higher the frequency the wider the bandwidth, i.e. greater data capacity, but the power of the transmission drops off more quickly.

In some locations, say rural, 5G may operate over the existing frequency spectrum (used by 3G and 4G). Reception levels would be the same.

In cities the need for more bandwidth means a tradeoff must be made with poor reception - the higher frequency bands will be used.

In practice it's more complicated, e.g. in cities operators might use an overlay of the lower frequency spectrum to give maximum coverage but use handover mechanisms to force handsets receiving the higher spectrum onto that band, clearing bandwidth on the lower spectrum.

Specs1, thanks for your response. You highlight three areas.
'Effect of report' - The level of publicity will depend on the media's asessment of it's newsworthyness. But whatever comes out will be a one time event and fade from the public consiousness. As an example, we all use and pay for energy so we're inclined to take an interest in energy headlines impacting our pockets, but a small % of the population will be in the market, so to speak, to consider the commercial implications of a report on the funerals business. I don't any media impact will have a longterm consequence on Dignity's business.

'Actions' It still isn't clear to me how the CMA will impact Dignity's business in a market/capitalist economy. Dignity's website has a copy of Dignity's response to the CMA. Dignity point to some possible outcomes and make the point that they already offer free funerals to sectors of the community. Let's wait for the full report.

'regulation' here I disagree entirely with your points. Yes. decent funeral directors would want to meet new regulations - if they are required - but will face higher costs, and an element of that will hit consumers. Less decent funeral directors will attract media attention driving consumers towards the larger groups who are better able to absord these costs across the group. Also, the reputational risk that comes with regulation tends to drive consumers towards the larger groups over time. Look at the poor reputation the low cost energy suppliers now have amongst consumers. The number of funeral locations has increased by 10% over the last five years. I've no doubt regulation will slow that growth.

A correction - in my previous post I questioned the view that creamatorium have high barriers to entry. Further reading suggests barriers do exist, primariliy capital investment cost, but planning less so.

However, this is an investment forum and it's in that context that I assess Dignity. For reasons I've outlined previously I think the next few quarters will be tough comparisons against last year, so I'll be watching for those to pass, hopefully along with the CMA's final report, before evaluating a possible investment in Dignity.