Member Info for londoner7

BaffinsMafia, you are wrong and Nice1 is correct.

The number you are using is the total output from the projects attributable to all partners.

The number that matters is the net attributable to Mosman, which is the gross attributable to Mosman minus royalties and was 6,033 boepd in the first 3 months. 6033/90=67.

I thought you were being deliberately misleading with your 500bopd prediction now I understand you were just confused. I hope this helps.

How could you miss out 007 and Fast and Furious? ;-) And the Lion King in July which some forecasters expect to be the biggest film of the year.

But back to the big weekend, and Endgame. While many of the theaters opened longer to accommodate demand there is a limit. It seems that the theatres may see a substantial tail to the opening weekend. In the US Monday and Tuesday nights were at 40K and 38K, which is more than some week end nights earlier in the month and considerably up on the mid week average of 10K.

Due to a slow Q1 (as antispated) year to date US revenues are down 11.7% from last year but this is an improvement from down 16.6% just a week ago - note last year's Avenger movie was released the same week end so this change reflects the difference in attendance between the two movies.

I suspect this improving trend will continue, albeit at a slower pace.

Da_Gee, my understanding is that '6033 net attributable to Mosman' is after royalty payments.

Confirmed - Thursday 16th May

A correction to my numbers in my worked example (interest rates are correct but amounts were wrong - I misread my spreadsheet columns)

After five years the interest rate is 2.13% = £4.854 pa
After ten years the interest rate is 2.6% = £5,906 pa

Your math is wrong. In this example the 1.75% interest rate would increase after one year to 1.04*1.75= 1.82% = £4,150 pa.

Refer to pg20 on gov.uk publication for worked examples:

https://www.helptobuy.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/Help-to-Buy-Buyers-Guide-Feb-2018-FINAL.pdf

sain@vision, I don't agree with the Help2Buy policy and have no view on your comments but I do question your numbers in your worked example.

How do you get to an extra £8,800 pa in interest?

My working:
40% Help2 Buy equity = £228,000, interest free for 5 years.
After 5 years interest at 1.75% is due = £3,990 pa
When the RPI formulae kicks in the interest rate of 1.75% increases at RPI + 1%.
Say RPI is 3% then the increase in the interest rate is 4% pa.
After five years the interest rate is 2.13% = £4,149 pa
After ten years the interest rate is 2.6% = £4,854 pa.

Qd22, under the guise of remuneration committees company executives award themselves very handsome salaries and annual bonus' too. But let's face it, it's true across the board. Whether it is damaging to trust depends on the level of those awards.

I agree that not knowing the EPS bar set is annoying - the argument used is commercial sensitivity. We only know the targets at the end of the period.

That said. I thought I'd expand on what we do know about Breedon's performance awards.

Those reported today amount to 0.3% of current market cap and will vest in 3 years. A big difference to previous years is that this year the divisional heads are included accounting for 0.11% between them with the three top guys, chairman, CEO and CFO getting the other 0.19%.

Now lets go back to 2016. The top three guys were awarded 0.16% of year ending 2015 market cap so there has been some award inflation, but modest.

We also know the 2016 - 2018 inclusive target: 37% - 80% of EPS growth in excess of RPI vesting at 20% to 100% respectively. The growth attributed (ex RPI) was 71%, which looks about right with actual adjusted growth of 75%. I'd guess the 4% difference is less than RPI over those 3 years but there were significant capital events associated with acquisitions which might account for any difference - I'm not going to quibble on that.

One area I would quibble with is the use of adjusted numbers when in a period of high acquisition activity share holders have seen their returns (basic EPS) impacted by acquisition costs. I hope that with good GB and Ireland coverage the big acquisitions are now behind us and the newly incentivised divisional heads beat their targets.

I'd like to think the 100% vested level is around 20% pa over the 3 years but as you point out we will not know until April 2022.

There are companies I don't invest in because of the excessive level of awards but I don't count Breedon among them. But it is an activity I monitor every year.

Best, Londoner7

Meta84, on your point about the order book.

As of 11th Feb 2019 the position was:

"Strategic progress continues, with a strong forward order book. • 96%1 of revenue secured for FY19 and 66% secured for FY20 (HY18: 99% and 61% respectively)."

FY19 ends in June. Perhaps they now have 75% of targeted revenues for FY20 and probably <<50% for FY21.

That is the order book being run down.

This review of the construction business will include job losses and the result will be that fewer projects (revenue) will be required to keep the remaining workforce in employment.

The challenge for all UK construction companies has been keeping workers employed in the face of delayed projects, which has prompted some to chase low margin work. Today Galliford followed other companies in calling time on this process.

I invested in Galliford about a year ago on the basis of their fast growing regeneration business believing their construction problems were behind them - I was wrong, but I think today (or perhaps May) marks the effective write off of that construction business to a smaller operating unit.

I see the Linden Homes house building unit as the anchor to the group - if that was the basis for my investment I'd have looked at pure house builders.

In FY18 segmental operating profits were House building £184m (+8%), Regeneration £24m (+58%) and Construction £16m (pre-exceptions).

I'm happy to see a reduction in the construction side of the business.

Skeletor, that is a pre-tax number so after tax earnings will be about £95m for EPS 86p and a dividend 43p, but there should be a significant element of recovery next year. Note - this is also a pre exceptions number following the first half estimates on AWPR costs.

In hindsight job losses were inevitable after the project delays such as the one I highlighted in Mar and Balfour's comments on the impact of Brexit related delays I highlighted here in Feb.

I generally agree with you other points and I'm holding till at least the outcome of the review .

https://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/breedon-wins-surfacing-contract-for-a9-dualling

From today's RNS

"SigmaRoc will announce its results for the period ended 31 December 2018 on Monday,16 May 2019."

The 16th is a Thursday. Can anyone confirm the date?

It wasn't clear to me from yesterday RNS what the next well was going to be but this update helps.

Sounds like Stanley 3&4 have been postponed (to focus on near term production from Stanley 1&2) and the next well will be Champion or Challenger.

I suspect the news had been in the market for sometime before the 3rd.

The well was flagged by CNE as 'material' but high risk. The first of 5 exploration wells for 2019.

The well is dry.

News on CNE website, released 3rd April.

Love_You, I wouldn't kick yourself too hard.

I thought the results were much as expected (as you say), the news on payments towards the near term debt requirements are encouraging but surely the biggest relief for investors is no mention of the acquisitions and rights that were rumoured a few months back. It didn't even come up in Q&A.

MO, thanks for your clarification.

I heard a low 60s to mid 80s ambition and took 63% as last years performance. The differences are not great but do impact my calculation of the production profile for the year. I'll do a bit more research then rework them. A job for tomorrow.

Cheers.

MO, I was working some numbers when I saw your post. It brought into question some of my assumptions.

When you say, '100% = 51.5k bopd at midpoint', what do you mean by the midpoint and what is the range?

Do you have a reference?

Best,
Londoner7

The article states, "Spirit will fund 100% of the initial drilling campaign and pay 50% of the tie-in cost of one of these wells to the FPSO." In fact Spirit will be paying 75% of the tie in costs (phase 2).

I note the article is from January so perhaps this error has already been posted.

easyp, on that basis you'll find cheaper shares amongst the other oilies. What matters is the direction of travel in NAV along with the myriad of other considerations, more generally the valuation of producing assets and specifically here the possibility of a win in the Indian dispute.

Cairn's write down on the Kraken asset put the cat among the pigeons. It will be interesting to see Enquests response later this week. But who's right or wrong on today's assessment of the asset comes out the in the wash WRT the P&L account over the medium to long term. Basically the more you write down your assets today the less you have to offset future profits by depletion/depreciation.

The lee way allowed in the valuation of assets permits a difference that can be used by companies with differing P&L and debt profiles. While these difference can hit sentiment today the truth comes out in time - as reflected in the P&L account.