Member Info for londoner7

spindok, revenues affected equate to about 4% of Breedon's annual revenues. If the market wishes to get excited about the 'impact' of CLLN on Breedon I'm not sure that Breedon management should respond. Rather I'd prefer to see well informed shareholders having the opportunity to take advantage of a market's mispricing - accurate or not. I suspect there will be an impact from the project's delay - �55m of revenues over 2.5 years rather than the anticipated 2 years- but is it material? I don't know the detail of the contract. I guess it will get a mention in the final results QA. I'm expecting a good announcement 7th March and suspect the organic capex spent in the last 6 months is not recognised by the market. But then that's why I love investing in these misunderstood companies. Till I'm proved wrong ;-) Best, Londoner7

phipot1001, our posts passed each other but I agree with your comment. Londoner7

The issue here is that the Aberdeen Bypass is a fixed price contract. GFRD had already written off any expected profit last May when they took a �98m exceptional charge for this contract and others - although I believe this was the biggest. The project is expected to finish mid 2018 so the pain might not last much longer. My understanding is that the only thing that has changed today is that GFRD look like they will have to payan additional �40m, while yesterday it looked likely that they would have to cover the CLNN failure but it wasn't quantified. Today it is quantified at �40m, and perhaps they will also add a bit more to their own writedowns for transitional costs etc. But is that such a big deal? The company capitalisation has lost about �65m on a one of cost of less than that. It seems disproportionate so I've take a nibble. I'll watch for a little while but this looks interesting. Am I missing anything? Londoner7

Galliford Try plc (the "Group") notes the announcement by Carillion plc this morning. The Group is in joint venture with Carillion and Balfour Beatty on the �550 million Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route contract. The terms of the contract are such that the remaining joint venture members, Balfour Beatty and Galliford Try, are obliged to complete the contract. Our current estimate of the additional cash contribution outstanding from Carillion to complete the project is �60-80 million, of which any shortfall will be funded equally between the joint venture members. Balfour say much the same. "Balfour Beatty will continue to work with its customers and will meet its contractual commitments." Construction continues. Galliford and Balfour cover any cash shortfall. Contractors including Breedon are paid. Londoner7

spogbat, I agree, But if it is the cause of recent weakness then that gives me encouragement because any impact (through the Aberdeen project) would be marginal. Are there other CLLN projects involving Breedon? CLLN, Balfour and Galliford 'own' the AWPR and now Balfour and Galliford have responsibility for its completion. I doubt if there'll be more than a hicup in its construction, perhaps some delay in contractor payments but impact on Breedon should be minimal. CLLN has been in its death throes for some time - long enough for Balfour and Galliford to assess and minimise any impact. The collapse of joint partners in these sorts of projects isn't uncommon. http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15827789.Questions_raised_over___2bn_worth_of_public_contracts_for_debt_laden_firm/ Londonder7

D, I don't think GNK is trading significantly worse than the other companies in the sector, but you'll know when they update on the 25th with trade and other company updates before then. Generally the sector is unloved. With a few exception (JDW, Young's) share price performace other the last five years has been poor. So to a value investor the sector is looking interesting. The challenge is that the sector offers a smorgasbord of flavours - location, debt profile, dividend policy, target market, cost control, wet/food/lodgings mix, brewery/distribution options, investor perception, etc. So the options are to choose a recipe and hold your nose, or walk away. The winners will be announced in five years time. Londoner7

Dinoken, I'd never looked at the LSE news feed before - thanks for the pointer. I felt the reversal in sector dividends was a flag so relieved to see MARs raising theirs. I've looked closely into MARs debt and CapEx but managements confidence in raising the dividend is a good indicator of the balance sheet. Remember this team ran Marston's through the financial crisis of 2008 so one would hope they are alert to hazards. The MAB commentary supports my adhoc findings of a good Dec - trade data due within the week. I was a bit bamboozled by the adjustments for 53 weeks etc but took the bottom line to be +2.2% LFL growth. So I guess that's the target for MARs and the others, but don't mention the weather! Londoner7

I completely missed this earlier. Thank you Melrose.

(see Reuters note under MARS for today). Dinoken, I don't see this. Could you be more specific? Cheers.

"As to fundamentals" meant to say technicals.

I think the wobble in MARs and others is due to the downdraught in GNK from an overbought position - their recent recovery seems to me to be due to broker commentary rather than anything meaningful revealed in their Dec update. Unlike MARs update which IMO was more positive. MAB reveal Q1 numbers tomorrow which should provide guidance on the sector. My understanding of sector generally, Oct flat, Nov good, nothing official on Dec but my local GNK landlord says good. We shall see! Londoner7

QE, I didn't ask about the turkey meals but the landlord of one of my locals (a Greene King pub) said business was well up on last year over xmas, however my little but affluent patch of Scotland 20 miles outside Edinburgh may not be representative of the country. Nervousness across the sector over the last couple of days may be due to the first of the updates on the sector due from MAB tomorrow. I'm not sure a few haggis bon bons will help. As to fundamentals, whats wrong with a simple RSI? It's been flashing overbought on GNK for a couple of days. I'm invested in the sector but elsewhere. Londoner7

Hi Copout, I get the sense that Senior's markets are in or close to a recovery phase. They have continued to increase revenues through small acquisitions and organic growth and I wouldn't be surprised to see them approaching mid teen margins again in 2019. On higher revenues I can see a sweet spot on earnings for a few years out - all assuming world growth can be maintained (particularly North America) for the next couple of years. OK itself a bit of a bet but I'm comfortable with the risk reward ratio. In the dividend front I don't expect a hike but a resumption of the steady 10% pa growth. I never invest on the possibility of a bid. I have have no idea of the prospects but who knows. In earlier years Senior have shown good ROIC. I doubt there are many good cheap companies out there to buy at this point in the cycle so I'd be encouraged by any uplift in organic CapEx. Best, Londoner7

"Senior is pleased to report that trading in the Period has been slightly ahead of previous expectations, driven by a good performance in November and December." We know the new model aircraft production is taking off, now it looks like the trucks are rolling - 3 months of sales over 30,000. http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2018/01/05/north-american-truck-orders-jump-77-in-december-ftr.print.html Now if only the oil sector could come good, but that needs higher oil price. Oh look ... Londoner7

http://www.daviscofferlyons.co.uk/ptnews/detail/november-delivers-sales-uplift-for-pub-and-restaurant-groups/97#.Wk-mezfLjIU

I think yesterday's close above 114p was important.

Gas? Marston's are serving Brent from the 3rd pump. At least that's the whisper amongst the oilies and let's face it most of those companies struggle to get it out of the ground. ;-)

Spogbat, you describe a badly managed change in the bonus structure. I can understand the reasons for introducing a xmas bonus in the early days of a fledgling company, but I can also understand the reasons for removing it as business gets larger. I think there are better ways to motivate the workforce. At the very least I would have notified the change earlier in the year. Failing that I'd have introduced some sort of transitional arrangement such as flexible working around the holiday period, although I should emphasise I have no experience of the industry's seasonal working arrangements – is there a 2 week shutdown? Do you know if the other companies in the industry such as Tarmac, Hanson, AI, etc. pay a xmas bonus? Best, Londoner7

thirdman, 4.8p of the drop since the recent high of 121p on 11th Dec is due to an ex div on 14th Dec which will be paid out on 29th Jan. Londoner7

These payments would be paid at the marginal tax rates. Below the £43K threshold income tax 20%, EE NI 12% & EP NI 13.6% deducted, total 45.6%. Above £43K threshold income tax 40%, EE NI 2% & EP NI 13.6% deducted, total 55.6%. So roughly 50% of a £1.2m bonus payment would go to the government in taxes. In various management roles I’ve supported the termination of a bonus which has become routine. Better to incorporate additional payments into wages and salaries, and/or, promote the share option schemes. Generally, savings related schemes are available to all employees. I appreciate the sensitivities around terminating a xmas bonus so it requires careful handling. But a case can be made for employees participating in savings related share options benefiting from this ‘saving’ over the medium to longer term. Bah humbug!