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It was another busy week for observers of the UK economy with a fresh batch of data released giving policymakers at the Bank of England plenty to think about.
Like a gambler holding 15 on a blackjack table, Threadneedle Street’s next move on interest rates is a gamble either way: cut too fast and risk letting inflation bed in – cut too slowly and strange the economy’s rebound from recession.
economists pushed back the timing of the first rate cut, with August looking the most likely date. Money markets are more pessimistic and have not fully priced in the first cut until September.
https://www.cityam.com/bank-of-england-left-with-tough-choice-on-interest-rate-after-week-of-fresh-data/
Fernando Alonso hints at F1 retirement date after historic contract https://www.gpfans.com/en/f1-news/1018325/fernando-alonso-f1-aston-martin-contract-2026-retirement/
Aml just need to sort out a couple of decent drivers going forward
Eddie Jordan believes 34-year-old driver's 'time has run out' in Formula 1 https://www.f1oversteer.com/news/eddie-jordan-believes-34-year-old-drivers-time-has-run-out-in-formula-1/
"World faces permanent higher interest rates"
This is great news for Lloyds shareholders as Charlie Nunn says, a 0.25 percentage point rise will help net interest income by about £225m in the first year, £300m in the second year and £425m in year three
UK bank earnings season starts again on 24 April when Lloyds Banking updates, notes UBS, adding the domestic operators still look good despite an impressive share price run since the start of 2024.
Lloyds target rises to 58p from 53p despite the uncertainty over the motor finance probe.
“A £2bn share buyback and 175bps capital generation target for FY24 suggest confidence that overall risks are manageable,”
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1045514/lloyds-barclays-natwest-all-upgraded-as-ubs-tips-bank-rally-to-continue-1045514.html
The March inflation print came in hotter than expected at 3.2% against market forecasts of 3.1%, though this still makes for the lowest year-on-year rate since August 2021.
Annual core inflation (which is a better indicator of consumer income pressures) slowed to 4.2% in March, the lowest since December 2021 and down from 4.5% in February.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1045467/uk-inflation-falls-at-a-snail-s-pace-1045467.html
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, China's GDP grew 1.6% in the first quarter, compared to a Reuters poll expectations of 1.4% and a revised fourth quarter expansion of 1.2%.
Growth was driven in part by external demand, as export volume grew by 14% year on year, said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/04/16/chinas-q1-gdp-grew-5point3percent-in-the-first-quarter-beating-expectations.html
Wage growth eased slower than expected, but unemployment posted a surprising large jump, as the Bank of England considers when to start cutting interest rates.
Annual pay growth including bonuses averaged 5.6 per cent between December and February, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), unchanged from 5.6 per cent last month and slightly ahead of expectations.
Excluding bonuses, pay growth eased to six per cent per cent from 6.1 per cent previously. Economists had expected it to fall below six per cent.
https://www.cityam.com/wage-growth-slightly-hotter-than-expected-as-bank-of-england-considers-interest-rate-cuts/
Hercules Site Services cements labour supply partnership with Costain
Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/LON:BOOM/Audioboom-Group-PLC/rns/1451191
Financial and operating highlights
· Q1 revenue of US$17.1 million, up 11% on Q1 2023 (US$15.4 million). The positive momentum of Q4 2023 has continued with the second successive quarter of year-on-year revenue growth Revenue growth has accelerated in this period (Q4 2023: 5% up on Q4 2022) and the Company expects further acceleration in revenue growth rate through upcoming quarters
· March revenue of US$6.7 million represented the highest revenue month for the Company since May 2022
Ninety One's Ben Needham says Lloyds should offer investors 'an excellent cash return story' in the coming years.
This will come in the form of a compelling dividend (2.76p a share in the 2023 financial year) and a strong share price return, driven in part by the company buying back its shares (reducing the number in issue), so increasing the chance of the shares going up in price.
'At the current share price,' says Needham, 'Lloyds shares should generate mid-teen annual returns for investors.'
Another Lloyds fan is Interactive Investor's Richard Hunter. He says the bank's move to a more digital business (closing offices and branches) will 'reap rewards' in the form of improved margins (bigger profits).
He is also encouraged by the bank returning to its previous reputation as a 'provider of large shareholder returns.' A 'progressive' dividend policy, adds Hunter, has resulted in an annual dividend equivalent to 5.4 per cent – 'tempting for income seeking investors.'
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-13304215/20-dirt-cheap-British-stocks-experts-say-make-fortune.html?ico=mol_mobile_money-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Findex.html&_ga=2.32726583.807147711.1713091173-1807238911.1696185645&_gl=1*jo41zx*_ga*MTgwNzIzODkxMS4xNjk2MTg1NjQ1*_ga_XE0XLFFF16*MTcxMzA5MTE3My4xMTMuMS4xNzEzMDkxOTU0LjAuMC4w
Aston Martin's boss was handed £1.3million to commute weekly from Italy to the Midlands by private jet, fuelling the row over boardroom excess.
Aston Martin flies into a storm over fat cat perks https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13304263/Aston-Martin-flies-storm-fat-cat-perks.html?ito=native_share_article-nativemenubutton
How this 'Great Fat Lie' has become a Big Fat Truth: Remainers scorned the claim Brexit would give an extra £350m a week to the NHS. In fact, it's now getting an extra £710m,
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-13304953/amp/remainers-brexit-extra-350-nhs-ross-clark.html
Aston Martin's boss said a net zero ban on petrol cars would be "premature" due to the current weakened demand for electric vehicles.
Lawrence Stroll, the Canadian billionaire and owner of Aston Martin, believes any push towards EVs will be based on "hype" rather than real demand.
He reckons most consumers don't want electric vehicles no matter the incentives offered by governments.
A lack of electric vehicle charging points is partly to blame, Stroll argued.
The UK has begun upping the number of EV charging points after reports earlier this year revealed drivers don't believe the network is fit for purpose.
Luxury and supercar makers also have been watering down plans for a switch to fully electric ranges after the EU and UK pushed back deadlines for a complete switchover until 2035.
In February, Mercedes-Benz said it would still be producing petrol-fuelled cars well into the 2030s despite the targets set for carbon transformation.
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1045088/aston-martin-boss-warns-about-premature-ban-on-petrol-cars-1045088.html