Member Info for licker

As everywhere you look at the evidence you can. I see major league directors being appointed. Some of UKs richest most succesful business oeolle and Qatar investing. Excellent results. Good news of deals rolling in. New highly successful products launched. Geographic extension. Large cuot base reductions. Highly credible CFO on the numbers...he will exceed guidance given his track record.

Then you make an informed speculation based on evidence you see.

However any speculation on the investors perceptions of apollo bid is not evidence based. It is pure unfounded conjecture

That's speculation only. As an investor and putting myself in their shoes, i don't think thè appolo bid should have been accepted. I agree with them 220p is a huge undervaluation (even more so with the reems of positive news and results since), especially with the control requests ontop.

Agree with the outburst comments which have now stopped abd the new top tier board appointments .

350p and things get interesting nothing less. I dont want an PE stealing ths after the illegal short attack.

In hindsight after things called down and the fast money had their strop MM was clearly right to entertain any offer less that 350. They requested control ontop. No chance its was far to low and expected far too much.

This new high quality board with new billionaire investors could easily get it back to 300p under their own steam in a short time. No need for apollo

York

Its not just the top drawer careers banked on this in lsst 12 months but also the shareholder base.... insiders and some of the biggest capitalists in uk and one of rishest soverleign wealth funds in world all banking THG big time on last 12 months. The laughing clowns today who can't string a logical sentence together really think 350p plus is crazy. That's bottom end of fair value.

Q2 results will smash guidance now we have a 1st class CFO

I've no insight as to why but as you say correlation is perfect every time

Wnaba put some rationale up no need for the kiddie posts

Join ADFN board you'll find yourself more at home over there

B1nku

Ogmore current share price its false and low for many reasons. Yhe free float value is too small to relliably vakue the business. Once a move is made by MM or other then there will be competition for the business abd fair value will be realised v quickly.

Fair value c. 350

I'd really.like to do a DCF model but have no guidance on that.

Remember all the profits are tax free for years!!!!

I've gone conservatie on beauty at 3 x on that valuation. Recent deals and peers around 5 to 11x

Its simply insane how cheap this is. It needs to clear the hangover from the car crash mismanagement of the old board missing targets massively when few weeks before said all ok. It will clear but not just on Q1. I think the apollo leak was fabrocated by MM (nobody ever found a keak until MM said it and only at that point did SP react...to soften the blow of an absolute car crash 2022. A guidance smashing q2 update will bring another level of confidence and if I know saunders of old ( his green suite days and his matching brother in tax) he will no doubt do that.

Ontop of revenue the cost reductions will exceed target also. It needs a second barnstorming update to cement in the new order of things.

That's without a capital event

I said other day using peer multiples 1000p can be logically calculated

The ebit multiplier method of 14× FTSE retail sector average (can argue higher as that includes basket case dying high street retailers) bings us down a bit to on a valuation method to 2.8bn which is still double. But I think we will snash 200m this year. That's why q2 update so critical

I still firmly believe at moment fair value is 350p area. The short attack has wrongly got people to accustomed to significantly undervaluing intop of mouldings several absolute howlers.

It will re rate. With all the fantastic news of late still can't get my head round lack of volume on buy

On a similar revenue multiples of 5.5 x values nutrition at 3.7bn or 250p per share. Plus 1bn ingenuity 65p per share per apollo plus beauty at v Conservative 3× revenue or dlagai 3.7bn 250p per share

Market cap 8.2 bn or 560p per share

Shows how stupid our price is. Bargain of the FTSE

B1NKY that's what I said yesterday and one or 2 people who fir sine unkien reason claimed they were speaking for "All" didn't like it

Today wasn't supposed to happen....but the buy volume certainly is not evidence that many believe a likely upcoming capital event

I genuinely wish they were correct though as today I don't like

Q2 results will beat guidance.

No way he would set up guidance he would miss so early in his tenure. With all the good news raining l in i'm expecting a major upside. He cleaned out Dec 22 as all new CFOs do so will be upsides from here

On another note UKs largest FTSE listng Royal Dutch shell considering a US listing and leaving FTSE as peers have a 40% premium. The old school dinosaurs even now thinking of leaving after ARM new world stocks. The cons are finished absolute disgrace on their 12 year watch. Problem is labour will be equally as bad maybe worse with tax raids. This is like being presented a vote for your favourite disease.

That's better!

Ah well. Some excellent analysts and researchers on here still. Its a very good forum. I occasionally look at ADVFN (Broadmoor candidates) and used to be in telegram but found it a bit inward back slapping. Some good chartists on twitter though

What's happened to oke. I liked his posts he had some great insights hope he hasn't folded

That doesn't answer my question its a different point

That is the worry at moment despite all the excellent news on tradin, new products, new partners, geographies,great governance potential mbo/acquisition, , golden share the buyers aren't stampeding in

Exactly shorters borrowed and sold my shares pushing the price down from 500p to ridiculous levels. They can now pay 500p to get them off me to lise their short

When is Q2 trading update usually?

Another strong update would cement the new THG abd CFO credentials