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I don't think professionals are allowed on a bb. Even if one did 7 years in a pension fund buying and holding etc, they couldn't say.. Don't know why you and others keep saying 'I maybe dont or couldn't understsnd' Maybe I understand too well...hence my reasoning.. I'm just guessing here....but my assumption is that they manage holdings differently. Timing a key aspect, and deep analysis of the other side of the market vital.. especially if in a fund that cant short.. .and not an easy bull market.
my price targets are never unrealistic. . 129p is as close as 235p. A price many bulls hope for in the long term. But their is a difference right now . Market is on my side...and until it shifts...im the most realistic here...
im bot saying your reasons arw not buyable. I'm not saying its rubbish...im just saying.. .I need market to agree....and whether that's at 180 or 100 who knows. Right now, I dont see the catalyst for negative sentiment, falling away....
fleccy: "I don't make share price predictions, i'm not bothered if it goes to 240p, it's not something i think about. " I have to say i find that strange. Not just fir capital reasons. But Dividend. If you did predict 100p.....would you confidently go un here for income and assume dividend yield would not be affected? I chase ex div runs. Have for years in a global scale. And i hsve very rarely seen a dividend not affected by sharp or consistent or recession drops.. . In fact, I know one or two professional income positioners.. .and the first thing they look at is reason for SP to drop, to assess risk on dividend yield.
Pokerchips has deep fundamental understanding. I look at all those graphs he speaks of.. But can only translate them as bearish or bullish In my way.. My knowledge is deeply in charts. I'm looking for all the 'pokerchips' in price, to see where they are going..
"What do you see as the catalyst for the drop to 129p?" Mostly the current market. Whatever the catalyst was from the start of year, still exists imo What was the catalyst? no idea. I analyse differently. I am in shares all over America, UK, Japan , Aus and Germany. I have to analyse differently. No time for company specific expertise. I let the market do that research for me. And try assess their sway. Maybe what you say will be a bull catalyst...and if I see the true bulls come here one day, il be buying. You may be right fleccy. But i want to see the market concur. Could happen before 2008 low. I dunno.
Yes agree. It's a weakness in most. I was happy last week to call a price as bad for my position re to strike 190 on the third day above Elliot price. Nobody of course jad issue with me calling a price above the days SP haha For me, calling price is a confirmation thst somebody has analysed the market completely.. .after all if ni price a in mind , how can one track their own thoughts ? As for saying price here, sure, opens me up to ridicule in the future....but I've no issue with that. Not very sensitive to these things.
How am i supposed to know a date??? No more then you can say when it will be 240p.. But il give it a guess. Time, can not be as accurate as prices obviously .. .example Elliot fund timing, stopped my estimate not stated here, of 160p already being hit If it continues dropping at the same rate as the last 7 months, then 7 months.. . But that is highly unlikely.. The more it drops, the more the 'cheap' price sucks in retail. So il estimate 2008 low at around 12-18 months