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Fellow GENLers,

The deal in the making is for Saudi Arabia to pump as much as it can and void the Opec+ deal that has sustained the increase in the Poo over the last 12 months in exchange for DTrump to forget that Kashoggi was butchered. DTrump has no moral compass, and all he cares about is to get a deal that helps him.

Whether that deal with lower the Poo to prices around $60-$65 remains to be seen.

But hey GENL has no net debt. So it will do fine regardless of poo. All we need is for dividends to be paid to shareholders so that funds that invest in dividend paying equities can buy some shares...

Hi E121 and sudz,

Many thanks. Good news on West Don then.
My view is that the minor decrease of the Poo so far has led the sp decreases across the oil sector which are unwarranted. If Poo stays as it is, then SPs will move up.

Have a great weekend.

Hi MO and E121,

Does any of you know what work might be going on at West Don?
Also, is there any place where production data for Malaysia is available?
Any further thoughts on the daily production at Alma/Galia?

I am not bothered by the DC4 delay, if it means a slightly reduced daily rate, or smaller capex in H2. POO is not coming down as much as I thought it would, so let us wait and see. If it stays above $75, then free cash flow in H2 will be high for the non hedged production.

TA

p.s.: There is someone on this board who suggested reserves have been downplayed in the past. I look forward to the day when ENQ issues an RNS acknowledging they left a digit out in all their previous releases and that 2P reserves are 2000MB, not 200MB... lol

hi MO,

quite an active evening around here with the whole gang posting...
AS now headed SEast.
where can we get data from oil production in Malaysia by field and operator? TA

Hi E121,

I stand by what I wrote about the poo last weekend.
Falls of poo so far have hardly an impact on Enq's figures (hedging is in place for about 5M of boil, if identical to H1 2018) . The re-rate of the sp will happen when oil production increases. So, I will wait for the news on that front. It is unfortunate we cannot get recent Malaysia production figures (correct?).

Until further notice day traders will focus on daily sp and will do their thing.
Others, like me, will just sit hold and stay put and focus on news about project execution.

Krakie,

why do you write "another bad day...". do not deramp.
ignore the poo. it is still high.
what will define ENQ this semester is oil produced, and for that we need AS to hook up with AK.
forget about the SP volatility. if plenty of oil is pumped ENQ will take care of itself.

p.s.: US will not release of oil from the SPR. And Michael has been working for us, shutting down oil production in the gulf of mexico, resulting in a loss of more than 400000 bopd in production.

Quick question for the people who post here:

How many oil companies listed in London are in a net cash position, and with more than 30k bopd production a day in a time of high oil prices?

Only GKP, correct? Or are there any others?

How many oil companies listed in London are in a net cash position, and with more than 30k bopd production a day in a time of high oil prices?

Hi MO,

I read your prediction. I hope you are spot on.
I was trying to get KK to make a prediction.

what about your production forecast for Enq this year? You continually ask Fernan for his SP target. It is only fair you tells us your production forecast...

MO,

Many thanks for your forecasts. I hope they come through. You will know once you get data from the last Alma/Galia's load and this week's Kraken's load. The figures from the latter could really have a huge positive impact.

Your forecast, Jan's forecast and my forecast, are all on the upper half (or slightly above in your case) of ENQ's guidance.

KK,

Topping up at 33 p was a wise decision. I instead doubled my Genel position, only because I have plenty of ENQ. Risk diversification. I am waiting for you production forecast for 2018. I posted mine. Since you label my posting as derramping, i am expecting you to post production forecasts that are at least 15% larger than mine.

January,

"Trump will seek to lift a federal ban on summer sales of higher-ethanol blends of gasoline on Tuesday, delivering on a move long-sought by anxious Midwest farmers ahead of November’s elections."

He is going directly to the price at the pump, thus bypassing the POO.

As you say he might have left it too late on the POO, but let us wait and see what waivers, if any, are granted. A drop of POO to $76 for about 3-4 weeks would have little impact on H2 results, (using E121 data) 50% production might be hedged, anyway.

Most important for ENQ is pumping oil out of Kraken and Alma/Galia, since Magnus is doing quite well.

Hi E121,

That is fantastic news. Let us hope they get at least 40k bopd a day out of Kraken until year end.

p.s.: I am preparing myself for a decrease of the POO until mid-November. With Brett K. appointed to the SCourt, the only thing that can endanger Trump's party keeping a majority in the Senate in November, is the high price of gas at the pump at the moment.
So, expect him to do something crazy in the next few days: tap the SPReserve (even though Perry said they would not), or grant short-term waivers to some countries on sanctions of purchases of Iran oil as leaked to the media on Friday.
Of course, that would only lower the POO in the short term, because after the elections he could not care less... This will lower the SP of all oil companies in the short term, proving a buying opportunity...

riskingit,

I completely agree with you.
Unfortunately some people think that this board determines the share price of a company with a market cap larger than £500M... If that were the case, then given the number of optimistic posts that have no informational content the market cap would surely be above £2B. If it is not yet £2B then it is because (and assuming the optimistic posts corresponds to how people trade ENQ's shares) this board does not make the Market as you say.

I am interested in reading what is posted here to be ahead of the recommendations of the brokers, as they typically issue their targets with a lag of something relevant having happened, e.g., for example the ramping up of production in Kraken, Magnus, Alma/Galia, etc. (thanks to MO, Chilts, E121, January, etc.) or how events shape ENQ's finances in the current and next semesters (thanks to the same people already mentioned, and in addition Fernan and romaron).

KK and Romaron,

I have a challenge for you:

Predict Enquest oil's production in 2018 (excluding the entitlement that corresponds to 75% of Magnus, and including it) better than me.

My prediction is 54k beopd (excluding 75% of Magnus) and 66.5k beopd (including 75% of Magnus)

Let us see if you can do better by making a prediction closer to the actual production than mine.

Romaron,

The times had its first piece the day after ENQ's RNS, and was written up based on ENQ's poorly worded RNS.

You might want to quote what the analysts quoted in the article today say. After all, they make the market more than this board does.

As far as the verdict is concerned I disagree with the last part of the last sentence "limits its ability to change strategy." Of course it can. ENQ is in Malaysia, and can increase its footprint there.

DD,
I though Fernan had provided some estimates a few weeks ago of financials, etc. I cannot recall if SP as well. but if you say he did not post SP i hope he takes this opportunity to do so.

Hi MO,

I am very happy about the oil being pumped out of Magnus and am hopeful that Kraken's issues are dealt with.

On Alma, let us hope we are told more by ENQ in the next update. Alma has oil, so ENQ needs to find a way to get it out...

have a good weekend wherever you are...

MO,

what is going on with Alma and Galia? Based on what E121 wrote production is now b/w 4k and 6k per day (Fernan goes for 4k), not 10k-12k as you has wrote it could be at the moment (yes, an increase from before, but ...) . Is more work needed to increase production? If so, what? If 2P reserves are 35M what do they need to do to get them out?