Member Info for L3Trader

Hi Mo, E121, Chilting, Fernan, Pelle,

MO, quoting you:
"Unsure if TL's DC4 rig anchors are still in place (from Jan 18) or if require pre-laying again, will see 1 x AHTS for job if required." Will this mean Enq will have to bear this cost, or is the contractor liable for it given the delay?

Not sure of what to make of the delay: could Enq use the delay to figure out additional use for TL either at Kraken, or elsewhere, i.e., to plug wells elsewhere, as part of undergoing decommissioning?

Capex in 2018H2: We have seen virtually nothing being done, maybe Alma/Galia, and that is it. Perhaps in <alaysia, as well a bit. So Capex will for surely be no more than $50M,rather than $125M, as per equal split of $250M budgeted for the year.

Cash-flow computations: From what you have posted it seems we are getting figures that mean a reduction of net debt (Oz capital loan treated as debt) b/w $150M to $250M, if I read what you posted correctly. In my view it is required that the net debt at end of 2018 is under $1.8B for the sp to re-rate. If by miracle went below $1.7B, the sp would for sure move considerably higher. A reduction of $270M is not out of the picture. It rally depends how much of the current provisions will have to be paid out in cash this semester, and on production levels.

From the data posted so far, it seems that #26 brings production at Kraken back below 35k bopd again. Unless we know what is going on with the well tests it is hard to know how soon they can increase output again. I believe that the brokers are going to be looking for any statement on the update about Kraken's issues being fixed.

POO: at current levels, I am quite comfortable with the financial implications for Enq. Hedge funds have been liquidating their long positions in the last few weeks. I doubt that they will continue doing so much longer, unless they are betting on the poo dipping to the $60s and staying there, which I do not see happening. Yesterday's API data was actually positive given the draws on processed oil.

finally, NH is getting its cargo...

Krakie, Squif and Pelle,

Sorry to sound as if I disagree, but brokers will be focusing on Enq' s execution. Enq does not control poo (or its volatility; it will not go back below $65, except momentarily...). Its managerial ability, and that is where the value added is (the rest is nothing but changes in the poo), is what is being assessed. For that Kraken's performance needs to improve, and Magnus needs to perform as it doing at the moment. Other assets need to deliver, rather than continuing to be distractions due to not performing as expected.

Nahion Hispania is not at AK yet...

I am still hopeful that by year end net debt will we below $1.8B, (excluding debt related to Magnus, but taking into account loan from Oz Capital).

Have read the below comparisons with Tullo, PMO, etc in terms of sp performance. Let us ignore all that sp of most oilies is erratic at the moment. Even GENL which is in a net cash position has seen sp drop 1/3 from peak a few months ago...

Squif,

What have you modeled for production?

E121,

Ta. Unfortunately longer intervals b/w loads than the ones observed early in 2018 will not help to reverse the direction of travel of the share price, at least until the rns reveals what is yet to be fixed in kraken.

Hi E121,
how many days/hours after the last load will it be?

And following his move, I am even happier that I have just followed him and increased my position around 27p, so at a lower price than AB's price ...
Note to Krakie: See, I am ramping up the price...

Pelle,
I have no clue where you get your 80k bopd from? Several of us have posted several forecasts on this board and none of the figures is close to your 80k...

All,
The sooner ENQ completes the purchase of 75% of Magnus the better. This would allow ENQ to get a RNS out with other production details.

Wisdom,

I do not have 170k shares yet, but if the sp keeps going down, i will be able to afford it.
I hope it does not get to that and the sp bounces, but who knows.

pelle

i had already suggested that, So guidance for H2 is 46 to 62k, and the need for narrower guidance, since half of h2 is now gone. i realize they do not want to start the habit of issuing too many RNSs, but given all that is going on (in terms of the new asset acquired, etc) they should do it as a one off

I never thought I could own 0.01% of Enq for not that much money...
POO: Read my post two weeks ago about it going down until the end of October. In addition, the Saudis are trying to buy their way out of the murder of Kashooghi by flooding the market, and making the US happy.
An addition reason relates to an interesting article about oil companies in the WSJ. A main argument is that investors are afraid that all the extra revenue that these companies have made in the last 6 months, will be re-invested, rather than used to reduce debt and increase the returns of shareholders. I agree with this argument. Volatility of the POO requires financial discipline and focus on execution.
Let us be patient...

All,
The sooner ENQ completes the purchase of 75% of Magnus the better. This would allow ENQ to get a RNS out with other details.
All oilies are down by a lot even though POO is still above $75.

CNE going down by the same percentage as ENQ. This is non-sense. They are joint owners of only one asset, Kraken, but they own different stakes. So, they should vary differently, even accounting for price of oil changes. I am ignoring the noise until further news. If #26 takes place with a shorter interval than last time, the tide will turn... DOYR.

Krakie,

Build in the US is the result of lower exports. Lower exports mean a draw in the countries where those exports usually go. Unfortunately, I do not think there is ready available data for the stock/reserves in those countries.

Now, we know Jeffries is the de-ramper, using Krakenoil favourite word.
They can de-ramp as much as they want. The oil somewhere down there belongs to ENQ, regardless of what they say.
All we need is cargo #26 by Thursday!!

75% of Magnus was a good purchase.
But that is enough for now. ENQ should focus on its current assets.

ENQ should stay away from more acquisitions until it deleverages substantially. Buying anything else at this stage would be totally irresponsible on the part of the management and board.
Priority should be to increase production and fix issues with Kraken/Alma/Galia, etc, and improve the attractiveness of SVT as a hub.

http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Red-Flags-on-U.S.-Fracking_October-2018.pdf

http://ieefa.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Red-Flags-on-U.S.-Fracking_October-2018.pdf