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romaron,

Agreed. If you read my more serious posts, they are all about the need for ENQ to focus on execution, regardless of the poo. So, let us wait for the trading update and see how that is going this semester. From the data I have gathered, Kraken is not performing well, or at least at a level that stops me being worried, and Alma/Gaklia is still not performing well either. Let us hope Magnus is doing better. One thing is for sure: it would be very unwise for AB and his sidekicks to enter into more deals. They need to hear from us that the balance sheet needs to be repaired first, otherwise Market cap will be lower and lower. Tomorrow, we will know how PMO has navigated this semester so far. ENQ and PMO are different in many ways, but similar in others. I will surely pay attention to how the market reacts to PMO's update, because I hold PMO, and also because I suspect that ENQ will react in the same way after its update. DOYR!!!

Krakie,

Because MBS will only get away with what he did to the journalist if he accpts to do as he is told. And he does not care that the standards of living of his citizens will be lower because the poo has to be low, until he pays back his sentence: twenty years of low oil prices. The only way out for oil investors is for him to be deposed of the title of crown prince...

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/editorcharts/OIL-PRICE-CURVE/0H001BHNX347/eikon.png

i have not, but may be i should... wake me up only if in the trading update later this month it is stated that net debt went down by at least $100M.
i am seeing trading prices i never thought i would see...

tomorrow?
will it go below 20p?

You wish that were true.... but it is not.
Shale is not going away. The US will prop it up for strategic political reasons. Trump is the one who set up the whole thing by lying to SA, UAE, Kuwait and Russia that the sanctions on Iran would not allow countries to buy its oil...

Hawkey47, Excellent analysis from you, as usual.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-expected-to-produce-half-of-global-oil-and-gas-output-by-2025-1542067260

no wonder people are engaging in trading w/out thinking much...

September data: OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 5.5 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,858 mb. This was 111 mb below same time last year, and 25.3 mb below the latest 5-year average.

The market is focusing only on the US data, which is what is causing it to drop very rapidly, because there is oil stranded everywhere in the US dues to bottlenecks with pipelines, etc, which is creating a very depressing outlook. it would still fall based on ll the available data, but not at this fast pace.

E121: thanks for your reply about shale. Busy day at work but i will try to send you a couple of follow up questions.

E121,

Since your post suggest you follow the shale oil companies, what can be said about their cash flow?
Negative free cash flows are to be expected in an industry that is expanding. However, in this case when it stopped expanding (and the number of rigs went down), 2 years ago, it still had free negative cash flow. So, are the cash flows from operations enough to repay the financing costs?
Many thanks.

kkoil,

As I wrote, the drop of the poo continues today. Until Russia says it will play along this will not change. This is not looking good. My optimism about the levels of the poo is now gone. I do not think Russia is going to play along. Lots of other non-economics issues at stake.

KKoil,

How is the break-even $64 per barrel? Where do you get that figure from?
TA

kkoil,
i am thinking poo will end below friday's closing price, because of russia's position. the market is hearing opposing views. we can only hope for execution of enq's production plan improving.

Pbeleens,

TA.
So, what happened with Solan? Was it a problem with the well, or has the reservoir too much water?

Hey Plebeens

TA: info about Solan.
I thought Solan's production was supposed to be going up. What went wrong for the initial plan of 20K bopd to have gone wrong? Are the wells not performing? Or was it something else?
Solan was supposed to have 44M bopd.
At 5k bopd it will take 20 years to get it all out... That was not the plan, for sure...
TA

Hi E121,

At some point you mentioned the hedges that were in place for this semester. Do you happen to know which were the price floors and and ceilings for those derivatives? And for H1 2019, was there any idea of the price floors and ceilings?

I am not sure that the announcement by the Saudis will keep the poo from going down. The Russians are still not keen on cutting production, because they have just spent a lot of money ramping it up. I wonder why do not they and the Saudis have a Commercial Strategic Reserve storage policy, to smooth out some of the volatility.

14.6 knots and moving fast, now to the east of Ipswich. Perhaps I will be able to see it when I wake up tomorrow morning...

Hi MO,

That is a good start, and shows leadership by the Saudi oil minister. Now, we need others to follow, e.g his Russian counterpart and the Iraqi one as well, and make similar announcements, to really stop the fall of the poo.

Heather is in a hurry, hopefully will be exactly to the east of Great Yarmouth by the time match of the day starts...

Hi Matrix Observer (or others)

In case you keep track of Solan's cargoes do you know when the last two were? One was last week as you pointed out in one of your posts, with 300k. Do you know when the previous one was?
Many thanks.

MO and Krakie,

14 days, better than 16.7 definitely, but let us wait for the kook-up.

when it comes to the short squeeze they really have to make the cuts. Talk is cheap, and everyone knows that OPEC has always had credibility issues in terms of delivering what they say, apart from in 2016. So, the rational thing to do, is for SA, Iraq, UAE and Russia, each announce a modest cut (say 100k bopd each) of their deliveries for December and implement it, for the price to stabilize. It will not go up, that is for sure, as after all Libya is pumping oil like mad. The goal is to prevent a downward spiral of the poo.

p..s: MO is a real polyglot. He even knows Egyptian! I mean old Egyptian!

eta for heather knusen is 16:00 on 13/11. no news on stena sirita.